The ETS market stayed reasonably well supported last week, although the long Easter weekend left auction volumes truncated at 17.6 Mt. The current week faces a similar number of EUAs being offered, with another four-day week shortening the auction calendar. There were few other big changes last w..
Next week's edition of Carbon weekly will be published on Tuesday 18th April, owing to the UK bank holiday. Last Monday’s verified emissions data release by the EC turned into something of a farce as incorrect data entered for one French installation massively skewed the initial analysis of the..
The EC today released 2016 verified emissions data as submitted by installations covered by the EU ETS. The indicative data (around 80% of open installations have so far reported), suggest that EU emissions in the non-aviation trading sectors increased by 0.8% y/y on a like-for-like basis, which..
In March, EUA prices traded with increased volatility. EUA’s closed all the way up at 5.91 €/t on 1 March in response to the surprisingly early Council agreement on its ETS Phase 4 position, itself more bullish than had been expected. The result was that the market now has negotiating texts from..
As we had been expecting, EUA prices dropped below 5 €/t last week (down by 7.2% w/w to 4.77 €/t), and it seems that there is still more downside to come. The combination of the end of the heating season and the start of a sustained period of heavier auction volumes, helped by the restart of Poli..
After the volatility of the last few weeks, the EUA market consolidated in a very tight range between 5.11 €/t and 5.20 €/t last week, closing slightly lower at 5.14 €/t. The biggest news last week was fundamentally bearish, with the EEX announcing that it has reached an agreement with Poland to..
After the big increase in EUA prices to 5.91 €/t following the Council’s surprisingly fast agreement of its ETS Phase 4 negotiating position, itself unexpectedly bullish, the contract has consistently retreated. By Friday’s close it was down by 7.7% w/w to 5.17 €/t—right in the middle of the rang..
Last week, the EU carbon market saw high volatility, with prices rising strongly on the surprise European Council agreement of its negotiating position for the EU ETS Phase 4 legislative package, before dropping back due to still-weak 2017 fundamentals. The Council’s agreement was a surprise both..
Over February, EUA prices traded in an increasingly tight range between 4.90 €/t and 5.41 €/t and averaged 5.14 €/t, which was lower than seen in either December 2016 or January. The month still had some supportive features for prices, but these were less pronounced than in January. The very..
The European carbon market was decidedly bullish last week, with EUA front-year prices up by 8.2%, climbing back up to 5.39 €/t. The bullish moves had some modest fundamental support from France, where nuclear outages have moved back up to over 10 GW again. While stimulating some spot buying, som..
Last week, the European Parliament passed a proposed legislative package for Phase 4 of the EU ETS, with very few changes made to the bill proposed by the environment committee (ENVI). Given how bullish those proposals were, we expected them to be somewhat softened in plenary, and the Parliament..
The EU ETS remained in the 5–5.5 €/t range last week as market balance persisted, reflecting the key factors apparent through the last six weeks. Auction volumes remain an omnipresent feature, but the bearishness of those sales is being largely offset by the prolonged period of cold weather and F..
The European Commission (EC) was busy last week, publishing two documents that concerned the EU ETS. The first was the proposed regulation for the ongoing inclusion of aviation installations in the ETS following the October 2016 ICAO resolution, which saw parties agree a global, market-based mech..
In January, EUA prices softened from those seen in the second half of December. In what was effectively a bit of a hang-over from that liquidity constrained month, the first trading day of January saw the highest price and was the only day when the market closed above 6 €/t. Afterwards, prices t..
The biggest news last week affecting the ETS was the 24 January UK Supreme Court judgement specifying that the UK Parliament must approve the decision to invoke Article 50—the trigger for two years of negotiations for the UK to leave the EU. After the ruling, the UK government said that it expect..