EUAs fell to close at 7.40 €/t (-6.1% w/w) on Friday as the market sold off on the ETS reform package finally being agreed at EU trilogue in the early hours of Thursday morning. The market was bid up in the sessions before the trilogue on expectations that a deal would be clinched, but it so..
EUAs posted an 9.9% w/w gain by 3 November despite a relatively quiet week on ETS policy. However, policy will be back front and centre this week. The sixth EU trilogue meeting on ETS reform is on 8 November, and the EU would like to be able to announce a bullish reform package during the UNFCCC&..
With European policy announcements taking a week off, the EUA market had time to settle and prices eased back towards 7 €/t. Market-moving policy news is not expected this week, but later in November we could see news to help support prices. Top of this list is the sixth EU trilogue meeting..
After a strong September in the EUA market has come an even stronger October, with Dec-17 closing prices trading in a 6.9–7.8 €/t range, and at least one intraday session seeing prices pass 8 €/t. Over October the closing price has averaged around 7.30 €/t, up by 7% m/m and 2..
Last week saw some strong EUA prices thanks to policy announcements, despite these containing little in the way of surprises. The proposed bill to exclude international aviation from the ETS—and at the same time ‘Brexit proof’ the ETS—was agreed at an EU trilogue meeting,..
The surprise of last week was the failure of the EU trilogue to reach agreement on the EU ETS Phase 4 legislative package. This was the fifth trilogue meeting on this brief and expectations were raised at the end of the previous meeting that the two sides were close to an agreement. In addition,..
In a week when the daily volatility in the EUA markets calmed compared to September, discussion surfaced on a ‘non-paper’ (a discussion paper) produced by the EC on the “Brexit clause”. As we have discussed before (see Global Carbon Outlook: Out of Order, September 2017), if the Brexit clause is..
EUA trading in September ended in the same manner as had been observed all month, with large within-day price swings and historic volatility (close-to-close) ending the month around 65% (compared to an average 45% over first eight months of year). The Dec-17 EUA contract added 6.3% w/w to close t..
While EUAs drifted up gradually in August, the EU ETS became alarmingly unstable this month. Historic close-to-close 10-day volatility, which ran at 20-40% for most of the previous six months, has been in the 50-70% range in September. On three days this month the gap between the daily high and l..
The volatility of the first half of September was more muted last week, although the Dec-17 EUA contract still shed 4.3% as some profit-taking occurred after the bull run in previous weeks. The market remains priced above expectations, and while it does still feel like prices are more likely to r..
Last week saw yet more volatility in the European carbon market, with softness at the start and end of the week and price increases mid-week—EUAs hit an intra-day high of 7.72 €/t on Thursday. The market was reacting to MEPs voting to void any EUAs issued or sold, from 2018, by a gover..
Last week was a crazy one for the European carbon market, with most participants thoroughly bemused by it all. Prices jumped upwards over two sequential days (Tuesday and Wednesday), adding 13% and closing at 6.7 €/t on Wednesday, despite there being little fundamental news to support such a..
The EUA market remains relatively quiet outside of price development, with the August bull run largely coming to an end last week, with the Dec-17 contract posting a 4.8% w/w loss to close at 5.83 €/t on Friday. The big change was the market seeing some profit-taking in advance this week of..
In August, the EUA market was very well supported, with Dec-17 prices pushing up to the 6 €/t level and surpassing it by the end of the month. Prices generally trended upwards through the month, averaging 5.6 €/t, which was around 0.3 €/t higher than the July average. As we said last month, we..
Another week and the EUA bull run continues, with the Dec-17 contract posting another 4.6% w/w gain to close at 6.09 €/t on Friday, and remained at that level in early Monday trading. Little really changed last week, with the gains in related markets continuing to slow. As we pointed out last wee..