Emissions

  • Brexit risk returns

    Brexit risk returns cover image Published 23 May 2019 by
    The April relief rally has run its course and EUA prices have settled in a new range between 24-28 €/t. Signals that could cause the market to break out to either side of that range are limited. The key bull feature remains the MSR, which will remove almost 400 Mt out of the 2019 market. Those co..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 20 May 2019 by
    Two announcements last week helped resolve some minor uncertainty around the 2019 and 2020 EU ETS balances. The first was the late Wednesday announcement by the European Commission that the total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC) for 2018 was 1.65 Gt, largely the same as last year. The p..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 13 May 2019 by
    The German government has been engaging in a lengthy discussion over extending carbon pricing to sectors not currently covered by the EU ETS. The two main sectors mentioned are transport and construction, although the CO2 associated with the manufacture of building materials such as cement, glass..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 7 May 2019 by
    The EUA market feels like it is settling into a new trading range, with prices currently in the middle of 24-28 €/t. A notable feature of trading over the last few weeks—during which there has been a sharp move up at the start of April, followed by a downward correction—is that t..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 29 Apr 2019 by
    Next week's Carbon Weekly will be published on Tuesday 7 May, owing to the UK bank holiday.Just when it looked like the EUA market was going to settle into a new range, technicals kicked-in and prices dropped. Over most of last week, the market traded in a tightening range around 27.4 €/t. T..

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  • Super massive

    Super massive cover image Published 24 Apr 2019 by
    The general bearishness in the European fuels complex has not proven any sort of barrier to another bull run in the EU carbon market. With the EU ETS in a bullish mood and Dec-19 adding some 5.5 €/t (25%) since the start of April, has the current bull run merely been driven by some short-term sup..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 23 Apr 2019 by
    In a relatively uneventful week, EUA prices settled into a new range between 26-28 €/t. With Brexit news not expected to resurface in the coming week, the market will be looking more at technicals for direction than fundamentals. Some late compliance buying could come from British Steel, a m..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 15 Apr 2019 by
    Next week's edition of Carbon weekly will be published on Tuesday 23 April, owing to the UK bank holiday.EUA prices held onto the gains provided by the Brexit relief rally, closing Friday up by 8% w/w at 26.58 €/t, with the chaos of a no-deal Brexit avoided for now. A fractious EU eventually deci..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 8 Apr 2019 by
    EUA prices gapped up in the second half of last week despite 2018 verified emissions coming in at an implied 3.8% y/y fall when data was released on 1 April, which was toward the high end of expectations for the drop. By Friday’s close (5 April), Dec-19 was at 24.6 €/t (+14% w/w). The surge in pr..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 1 Apr 2019 by
    1 April always involves the release of verified emissions data for EU installations for the previous calendar year. Today’s data release contained verified data for 90% of installations classified as still operational, with the rest of the installations all late in reporting. On a like-for-like b..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 25 Mar 2019 by
    It was another eventful week in the UK’s Brexit saga, which helped further soften EUA prices to 20.7 €/t, down by 8% w/w. The EU 27 members agreed last week to extend the Article 50 deadline from 29 March to 12 April. They promised the UK an automatic extension to 22 May if the Prime Minister’s c..

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  • Brexit smack up

    Brexit smack up cover image Published 22 Mar 2019 by
    EUA price formation in 2019 has so far been in the grip of downside risks, particularly Brexit, a topic that has dominated the last few weeks. On 27 February, UK Prime Minister Theresa May announced that she was going to hold a series of votes from 12 March on Brexit, which the market interpreted..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 18 Mar 2019 by
    Though we are loath to let our weekly become a Brexit blog, we cannot help but flag what will be another meaningful week in Brexit developments with only 11 days until the Article 50 deadline. Last week’s series of frantic votes in the UK Parliament went largely as expected as MPs rejected Prime..

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  • Brexit chaos still leaves no-deal risk on the table, which could increase again tonight

    Published 14 Mar 2019 by
  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 11 Mar 2019 by
    It is going to be another big week for risk around Brexit in the European carbon market. A second vote in the UK parliament is scheduled for Tuesday (12 March) on what looks to be a largely unmodified version of prime minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal that was defeated by a margin of 230 v..

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