EUA prices managed to gain 2.3% w/w last week despite one weak auction result and a cancelled UK auction. But the most notable talking point was Brexit. The UK government published a policy paper outlining the country’s main negotiating goals with regards to leaving the EU. While not overly..
The carbon market now has little in the way of future policy initiatives still to be agreed, so the market is now being driven by trading positions of proprietary market participants and some supportive fundamentals. The supportive fundamentals are coming from the sustained period of hot and dry..
Much of H1 18 was very volatile for prices, but June ended with EUAs trending in a very narrow 0.27 €/t band around 15 €/t. This narrowness raises the question of whether the market has settled into a more stable place after the sharp price increases that have seen EUA values double sin..
June has seen a break in what had previously been a nearly relentless EUA bull run that has seen EUA prices more than double since January. The Dec-18 contract hit a close as high as 16.3 €/t on 29 May, but has softened in June to as low as 14.24 €/t on 19 June, before heading back to o..
As we expected, the EUA market fell back on the 20 June expiry of ICE Jun-18 EUA options before bouncing back. At the options market’s most recent peak, on 7 June, around 21 Mt of calls were in the money, already largely hedged on the buy side, and were expected to result in hefty selling o..
Benchmark EUA prices dropped by 8% w/w to close Friday at 14.53 €/t as the bull run that dates back to July 2017 stuttered significantly. We think the drops were largely about the expiry of the Jun-18 options on ICE, which will happen on Wednesday (20 June). At the end of last week, open interest..
European financial markets, including EUAs, were characterised by risk-off events at the end of May, but EUA prices clawed back almost all their value over 4-8 June, albeit in a choppy trading week. The market hit a seven-year high of 16.7 €/t in within-day trading mid-week but closed Friday..
EUA prices slipped back last week amid some significant risk-off events for European financial markets. The first factor to curtail risk-taking was a burgeoning Italian political crisis, although this was averted on 1 June as a new government was sworn in after a breakthrough in coalition talks...
This week, EU trilogue sessions will aim to finalise both the Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) and the Renewable Energy Directive (RED), although negotiating sticking points remain on each directive over the level of ambition out to 2030. For EED, the initial European Commission (EC) proposal wa..
Another month, another acceleration in the EUA bull run. While April was actually a fairly modest month for EUA price gains, with the Dec-18 contract only adding 2% over the month, May has been racing upwards, passing 14 €/t at close on 9 May and 15 €/t on 16 May.The renewed upswing con..
Next week's edition of Carbon weekly will be published on Tuesday 29 May, owing to the UK bank holiday.After hanging out over April and the first week of May in the 13-14 €/t range, the last two weeks put the EUA market back on its upward trajectory. The market closed at 15.25 €/t on Friday, up b..
On Tuesday, the European Commission will announce how many surplus EUAs are in circulation. The total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC) is the basis on which the injection percentage for the market stability reserve (MSR) is multiplied to determine the volume of EUAs that will be taken o..
In the aftermath of the 2017 compliance date of 1 May the market moved modestly down, threatening to push below 13 €/t. However, this week has started stronger with Monday closing up 5% d/d. The European Commission (EC) released data last week showing that 265 installations were not fully co..
Tomorrow, 1 May, is the deadline for installations to submit EUAs to cover their 2017 verified emissions. While notionally important, the market as a rule rarely sees an uptick in buying (or selling) in the period immediately before the event as most installations will have sorted out annual comp..
Last week finally saw something of a downward price move after three straight weeks of w/w gains. The market closed at 14 €/t last Monday (16 April) but softened to 13.05 €/t by Friday’s close, posting a 6.4% loss on the Dec-18 contract. Last week the market displayed, as it often..