Next week's edition of Carbon weekly will be published on Tuesday 29 May, owing to the UK bank holiday.After hanging out over April and the first week of May in the 13-14 €/t range, the last two weeks put the EUA market back on its upward trajectory. The market closed at 15.25 €/t on Friday, up b..
On Tuesday, the European Commission will announce how many surplus EUAs are in circulation. The total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC) is the basis on which the injection percentage for the market stability reserve (MSR) is multiplied to determine the volume of EUAs that will be taken o..
In the aftermath of the 2017 compliance date of 1 May the market moved modestly down, threatening to push below 13 €/t. However, this week has started stronger with Monday closing up 5% d/d. The European Commission (EC) released data last week showing that 265 installations were not fully co..
Tomorrow, 1 May, is the deadline for installations to submit EUAs to cover their 2017 verified emissions. While notionally important, the market as a rule rarely sees an uptick in buying (or selling) in the period immediately before the event as most installations will have sorted out annual comp..
Last week finally saw something of a downward price move after three straight weeks of w/w gains. The market closed at 14 €/t last Monday (16 April) but softened to 13.05 €/t by Friday’s close, posting a 6.4% loss on the Dec-18 contract. Last week the market displayed, as it often..
Another month into 2018 and the bull run that EUAs have been on appears as rampant as ever, with another 2.8 €/t or so added to the EUA price since mid-March and the Dec-18 contract flirting with 14 €/t by mid-April. We are not calling an end to the upward price movements, but a potenti..
Last week saw the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announce an agreement to cut the global shipping sector's overall CO2 emissions by 50% on 2008 levels by 2050―below the 70% reduction sought by some members, including the EU. The main implication for the ETS is whether EU policymakers f..
Carbon prices took a break from their long bull run last week, but recent price rises have been drastic enough for us to consider the ETS Directive’s never-used Article 29 ‘safety valve’. The Article requires the European Commission (EC) to hold a committee meeting if —over a period of more than..
The week has opened with the annual release by the European Commission (EC) of initial verified emissions from covered installations in 2017. The initial numbers, from 90% of those installations that are classified as open, suggest that emissions from stationary installations were moderately up b..
The 2018 rampant bull-run that EUAs have been on did not abate at all this month, with another 2.0 €/t to the EUA price, leaving the Dec-18 contract trading at above 12 €/t as March comes to a close. The big future short positions in the market retain a pull on the market, with growing..
Next week's edition of Carbon weekly will be published on Tuesday 3rd April, owing to the UK bank holiday.When will the rapid pace of EUA price increases stop? Last week saw another acceleration, with the market closing between 12.0 €/t and 13.0 €/t each day, and there was even one intraday attem..
EUA prices spent last week establishing themselves in a 11.0-11.5 €/t range, with a few intraday attempts to break below rebuffed by the market by the close. Still, the upward trend of the last nine months remains. The flat price gains have been supported by considerable outright buying, wit..
EUA prices continued to drift higher last week, with little in the way of short-term fundamentals supporting the move. The deadline for allocating free allowances was end-February, but some countries were tardy as usual and only 562 Mt (74%) of the total allowed allocation was distributed. Spain..
EUAs simply drifted up last week, largely immune to the effects of the ‘Beast from the East’ snowstorm, despite spiking prices in European gas and power markets. Rather, the main talking point for the ETS market was new analysis in a European Commission ‘non-paper’ on the..
February is ending with the ETS still in bullish mood, closing on Friday up again w/w, by 3.0% at 9.81 €/t. In recent weeks we have outlined why we believe the recent upward trend is sustainable and why prices are unlikely to fall significantly in the coming months, as the market increasingl..