Devanshi Kothari
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Slice and dice
Published 13 Dec 2019
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Distillate traders are turning their focus to Q2 20 as the IMO 2020 focus shifts away from the early MGO trade that has so far not panned out. While VLSFO uptake continues to outperform the market’s expectations, traders are now wondering if the depletion of VLSFO stocks built up this year and re.. -
Chemical brothers
Published 6 Dec 2019
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The market is increasingly positioning itself for tighter octane availability in 2020, and we remain in agreement that the changes set to take place next year are supportive for octane values, particularly in the summer months. However, the recent rolldown in gasoline cracks underscores that this.. -
US demand – Sep 2019
Published 29 Nov 2019
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US oil demand rose in September by 0.14 mb/d y/y to 20.2 mb/d, a 0.72 mb/d downward revision from the weekly EIA estimates. We had expected a similar 0.6 mb/d downward revision for September data. Demand for the four main products fell by 0.18 mb/d y/y, led by diesel.Gasoline demand increased by.. -
Mexico oil data – Oct 2019
Published 25 Nov 2019
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Users licensed for the data service can access our Mexico dataMexican total liquids production dropped by 65 thousand b/d y/y to 1.93 mb/d in October. Crude output fell by 49 thousand b/d m/m to 1.66 mb/d due to planned works at Ku-Maloob-Zaap (KMZ). However, a reinvigoration at Xanab―where.. -
Make it rain
Published 15 Nov 2019
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Diesel bulls have been shocked by the scale of this month’s price correction, as fears grow that IMO 2020 is going to fail to live up to expectations. Indeed, incremental MGO demand for 2020 will struggle to grow much beyond 1 mb/d next year amid surprisingly strong VLSFO demand. Yet, there is mo.. -
Low Carbob diet
Published 8 Nov 2019
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The recent disruption at the El Segundo refinery in California has once again highlighted the tightness in the Atlantic basin gasoline market this winter. Although the Californian market is largely isolated, lengthy disruptions to its gasoline producing operations tend to draw the eye of the glob.. -
US demand – Aug 2019
Published 31 Oct 2019
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This is the inaugural edition of the US demand data review, formerly known as the US demand and trade data review. Detailed information on crude movements and refinery demand is now featured in our new monthly North America Outlook.US oil demand fell in August by 0.3 mb/d y/y to 21.1 mb/d, a 0.64.. -
Mexico oil data – Sep 2019
Published 29 Oct 2019
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Users licensed for the data service can access our Mexico dataMexican total liquids production fell by 0.1 mb/d y/y to 1.97 mb/d in September. Combined crude and condensate output dropped by 86 thousand b/d y/y, driven by super-light crude, but it rose m/m by 23 thousand b/d to 1.74 mb/d. He.. -
Dirty deeds
Published 18 Oct 2019
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The big switch to IMO 2020 compliant fuels has finally arrived, and VLSFO demand is expected to surprise to the upside to the detriment of MGO. So while there is probably a little bit of upside to calendar 2020 ICE gasoil cracks due to IMO 2020, those looking for a blowout at the start of the tra.. -
Credit crunch
Published 11 Oct 2019
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Gasoline bulls have come out in force as a repeat of the market’s poor performance last winter no longer appears to be on the cards. Supply-side developments are certainly supportive for prices. Unlike a year ago, a host of issues are combining to cut into octane availability in the Atlantic basi.. -
US demand and trade – July 2019
Published 30 Sep 2019
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US oil demand rose y/y by 60 thousand b/d to 20.74 mb/d in July, an 0.43 mb/d downward revision from the weekly EIA estimates—we had expected a smaller adjustment of 0.2 mb/d. Combined demand for the four main products fell by 0.15 mb/d, led by gasoline.Gasoline demand fell by 0.16 mb/d y/y to 9... -
No longer afraid
Published 27 Sep 2019
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VLSFO is surging into contention as the main solution to IMO 2020. Indeed, if the near total lack of discussion of MGO fundamentals at this month’s big oil market gathering in Singapore is any guide, MGO is yesterday’s news. Fuel oil traders may not have to retire just yet, as VLSFO means blendin.. -
Mexico oil data – August 2019
Published 25 Sep 2019
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Users licensed for the data service can access our Mexico dataMexican total liquids production fell by 0.12 mb/d y/y to 1.94 mb/d in August with crude output dropping by 0.11 mb/d y/y to 1.69 mb/d. Combined crude and condensate output rose m/m by 14 thousand b/d, however, as production from.. -
US demand and trade – Jun 2019
Published 13 Sep 2019
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The late release of our US demand and trade data review is due to the delay in the release of the EIA's June Petroleum Supply Monthly data. US oil demand fell y/y by 0.1 mb/d to 20.60 mb/d in June, an 0.32 mb/d downward revision from the weekly EIA estimates—we had expected a similar.. -
Mexico oil data – July 2019
Published 27 Aug 2019
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Users licensed for the data service can access our Mexico dataMexican total liquids production fell by 0.19 mb/d y/y to 1.90 mb/d in July, led by crude (-0.15 mb/d). Crude output was flat m/m at 1.67 mb/d, supported by the start of Eni’s 15 thousand b/d Mitzón 2 field on 30 June. Heavy produ..
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