Devanshi Kothari
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Dirty deeds
Published 18 Oct 2019
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The big switch to IMO 2020 compliant fuels has finally arrived, and VLSFO demand is expected to surprise to the upside to the detriment of MGO. So while there is probably a little bit of upside to calendar 2020 ICE gasoil cracks due to IMO 2020, those looking for a blowout at the start of the tra.. -
Credit crunch
Published 11 Oct 2019
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Gasoline bulls have come out in force as a repeat of the market’s poor performance last winter no longer appears to be on the cards. Supply-side developments are certainly supportive for prices. Unlike a year ago, a host of issues are combining to cut into octane availability in the Atlantic basi.. -
US demand and trade – July 2019
Published 30 Sep 2019
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US oil demand rose y/y by 60 thousand b/d to 20.74 mb/d in July, an 0.43 mb/d downward revision from the weekly EIA estimates—we had expected a smaller adjustment of 0.2 mb/d. Combined demand for the four main products fell by 0.15 mb/d, led by gasoline.Gasoline demand fell by 0.16 mb/d y/y to 9... -
No longer afraid
Published 27 Sep 2019
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VLSFO is surging into contention as the main solution to IMO 2020. Indeed, if the near total lack of discussion of MGO fundamentals at this month’s big oil market gathering in Singapore is any guide, MGO is yesterday’s news. Fuel oil traders may not have to retire just yet, as VLSFO means blendin.. -
Mexico oil data – August 2019
Published 25 Sep 2019
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Users licensed for the data service can access our Mexico dataMexican total liquids production fell by 0.12 mb/d y/y to 1.94 mb/d in August with crude output dropping by 0.11 mb/d y/y to 1.69 mb/d. Combined crude and condensate output rose m/m by 14 thousand b/d, however, as production from.. -
US demand and trade – Jun 2019
Published 13 Sep 2019
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The late release of our US demand and trade data review is due to the delay in the release of the EIA's June Petroleum Supply Monthly data. US oil demand fell y/y by 0.1 mb/d to 20.60 mb/d in June, an 0.32 mb/d downward revision from the weekly EIA estimates—we had expected a similar.. -
Mexico oil data – July 2019
Published 27 Aug 2019
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Users licensed for the data service can access our Mexico dataMexican total liquids production fell by 0.19 mb/d y/y to 1.90 mb/d in July, led by crude (-0.15 mb/d). Crude output was flat m/m at 1.67 mb/d, supported by the start of Eni’s 15 thousand b/d Mitzón 2 field on 30 June. Heavy produ.. -
The eastern front
Published 16 Aug 2019
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IMO 2020 has arrived. Asian diesel markets are pricing to retain more supplies from Q4 19, and European markets have responded to force the east-west arb to reopen. Contrary to our expectation last month that the weakness in conventional European diesel demand would keep cracks under pressure, th.. -
Tug-o-war
Published 9 Aug 2019
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Traditional suppliers of gasoline to the US East Coast have responded with such verve to the shutdown of the Philadelphia Energy Solutions (PES) refinery that the risk of a spike in gasoline prices towards end-summer, which we highlighted last month, has receded somewhat. Aside from some minor bl.. -
US demand and trade – May 2019
Published 31 Jul 2019
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US oil demand fell by 98 thousand b/d to 20.26 mb/d in May, a 0.19 mb/d upward revision from the weekly EIA estimate. We had expected no change to the weekly data. Demand for the four main products fell by 0.42 mb/d y/y, led by diesel (-0.23 mb/d y/y), even though distillate demand was revised hi.. -
Mexico oil data – June 2019
Published 29 Jul 2019
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Mexican total liquids production fell by 0.18 mb/d y/y to 1.91 mb/d in June, led by crude (-0.16 mb/d). However, crude output stabilised m/m (+8 thousand b/d) following ‘technical failures’ which weighed on May’s output. The market continues to highlight the importance of p..
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