The oil service, led by Amrita Sen, covers global crude and product markets. Energy Aspects publishes a comprehensive range of publications spanning data analysis, market fundamentals and geopolitical comment. Our team of experienced analysts provide the information and insight you need to stay ahead of the oil and oil products markets
Record US crude exports have spoiled the party for the bulls, at least in the near term, weighing severely on July-August Brent spreads and pushing them into mild contango last week. Not only are US arrivals to Europe at an all-time high, June US exports to Asia are also likely to be at a record,..
Australian oil demand growth remained robust in March at 48 thousand b/d y/y, on par with February's growth of 49 thousand b/d. The real test, however, will come in May when base effects will become more prominent as demand started rising strongly from May 2017. In line with recent trends, diesel..
European oil demand fell in March by nearly 0.1 mb/d y/y to 15.13 mb/d, likely affected by the timing of the Easter holidays, as diesel and gasoline fell by 24 thousand b/d and 36 thousand b/d y/y respectively. For comparison, Easter 2017 was in April and European demand fell y/y by 0.12 mb/d the..
Oil demand in the 10 top-consuming Middle Eastern countries (ex-bunkering) was 0.17 mb/d higher y/y at 6.06 mb/d in March, the highest reading since September 2017. Saudi Arabian oil demand rose y/y by 72 thousand b/d to 2.20 mb/d, led by a 45 thousand b/d y/y increase in crude burn to 0.35 mb/d...
Extract from production:We forecast that total Canadian liquids production fell by 9 thousand b/d m/m to 5.2 mb/d in March but was still higher y/y by 0.46 mb/d. The m/m slip was led by a 24 thousand b/d decline in synthetics output due to maintenance at Shell’s Scotford upgrader. Non-upgraded bi..
Extract from crude oil:The prompt WTI-Brent spread was -$7.06 per barrel yesterday, weaker by nearly $1 in the last week, after widening past -$8 during the session. The weakness in the spread comes even as exports are at record highs and amid expectations for Cushing to draw in the months of May..
The past two weeks have seen the three key agencies publish their monthly forecasts. The EIA published STEO on 8 May, OPEC published MOMR yesterday and the IEA published OMR this morning.Misdiagnosing a central pillar of accurate fundamental analysis—demand for the IEA and non-OPEC supply i..
We estimate that OPEC production fell m/m by 0.17 mb/d to 31.79 mb/d in April, the lowest total since May 2015 (based on the current 14 OPEC members). Compliance with the OPEC/non-OPEC deal reached another record high of 182%.Iranian production was broadly flat m/m at 3.79 mb/d in April, but US P..
Norwegian liquids production fell m/m by 33 thousand b/d to 1.87 mb/d in April, lower y/y by 0.25 mb/d, suggesting underlying declines remained elevated. Since October 2017, underlying declines have averaged 12%, while field-level data pegged March declines at 14%. April output was hit by a three..
With Venezuelan crude exports stymied by ConocoPhillips seizing PDVSA’s Caribbean assets and substantial threats to Iranian exports after Trump moved to re-impose sanctions on the Islamic Republic, future oil market balances have changed significantly. This is despite prompt softness—..
Brazilian liquids production fell m/m by 57 thousand b/d to 2.67 mb/d in March, but was higher y/y for just the second time in the past eight months― due to a low base driven by maintenance last year. Across Q1 18, production was lower y/y due to steep declines in the Campos (14%) and delays to n..
Extract from crude oil:US commercial crude stocks fell by 2.2 mb w/w last week, leaving total crude stocks 89 mb lower y/y at 434 mb. The draws were mostly focussed in PADD 3, where stocks fell by 2.5 mb w/w. Cushing stocks rose by 1.4 mb w/w last week, but we still expect these inventories to dr..
While all eyes are on Trump’s decision to retain or quit the Iran deal, just as the conflict between Israel and Iran becomes more visible, the weakening in Brent spreads has raised a few concerns. The recent strength in BFOE and Brent spreads driven by paper-led demand for BFOE has inadvert..
Extract from crude oil:US crude stocks rose by 6.2 mb last week to 436 mb, compared to the usual 0.7 mb draw. However, most of the build (4.9 mb) was in the logistically isolated PADD 5, with stocks in PADD 2 unchanged w/w and PADD 3 building by just 0.7 mb, underpinned by a 0.1 mb/d w/w fall in..
Russian oil output was flat m/m at 10.97 mb/d in April (87% compliance), 30 thousand b/d lower y/y. Rosneft’s output was flat m/m and y/y with a 60 thousand b/d y/y rise in its legacy assets almost entirely offset by steep natural declines from its subsidiary Bashneft (-50 thousand b/d).Russian c..