The oil service, led by Amrita Sen, covers global crude and product markets. Energy Aspects publishes a comprehensive range of publications spanning data analysis, market fundamentals and geopolitical comment. Our team of experienced analysts provide the information and insight you need to stay ahead of the oil and oil products markets
European oil demand was marginally lower y/y, by 13 thousand b/d, at 14.63 mb/d in January, the first decline since April 2017 when a late Easter reduced industrial activity. The declines were unsurprisingly driven by heating fuels, with diesel lower by 14 thousand b/d y/y and fuel oil by 48 thou..
Oil demand in the 10 top-consuming Middle Eastern countries (ex-bunkering) was lower y/y by 43 thousand b/d at 6.09 mb/d in January. Saudi Arabian oil demand grew y/y by 0.10 mb/d to 2.06 mb/d, due to higher-than-expected power generation requirements. Crude burn gained for the first time in five..
Extract from production:We forecast that total January Canadian liquids production fell by 0.12 mb/d m/m to 5.12 mb/d, higher y/y by 0.13 mb/d. The m/m slip was led by a 0.14 mb/d decline in synthetics output due to unplanned outages at Suncor and Mildred Lake. As a result, non-upgraded bitumen p..
The market currently lacks conviction. Many believe that price action in 2018 will be a repeat of 2017, so further price declines in the short run are in the offing. But stocks are substantially lower today, 400 mb less than on 1 January 2017, with the OECD stocks overhang below 40 mb.This is not..
This week and last the key agency forecasts have been published. EIA published STEO on 6 March, OPEC published MOMR yesterday and the IEA published OMR this morning.Despite some worries surrounding the global economy, the key agencies mostly revised global demand growth estimates for 2018 higher,..
We estimate that OPEC production fell m/m by 60 thousand b/d to 32.31 mb/d in February. This raised compliance with the OPEC/non-OPEC production deal to a new record of 149%.The largest m/m reduction came from Saudi Arabia, where output was 50 thousand b/d lower at 9.94 mb/d (125% compliance). Sa..
Extract from crude oil:Crude stocks surged by 5 mb last week to 430.9 mb (-97 mb y/y), compared to a 3 mb seasonal build. Still, crude stocks in the year-to-March have risen by 9.8 mb, compared to a build of 43 mb over the same period last year and a five-year average build of over 30 mb. Last we..
Physical crudes remain weak seasonally. Just as it seemed Med grades may have found a bottom, Urals took another step down, despite falling to levels that would incentivise European refiners to switch to Urals, as the steep cuts in Middle Eastern OSPs now make those sour grades more competitive i..
Extract from crude oil:Crude stocks rose by 2.4 mb last week to 425.9 mb (-102.5 mb y/y), compared to a 5.2 mb seasonal build. In 2018 through February, crude stocks have risen by 5.5 mb, compared to a build of 39 mb over the same period last year and a five-year average build of over 30 mb. So,..
Brazilian liquids output, ex-biofuels, was down slightly m/m in January at 2.72 mb/d and lower y/y for the fifth time in six months (-76 thousand b/d). Declines were driven by the post-salt Campos basin, which fell y/y by 0.18 mb/d (13%). Since June 2017, Campos declines have averaged 13% and we..
The macro worries that had started to haunt the oil market in early February have reared their ugly heads again. New US Fed chair Powell’s testimony to Congress was the catalyst as his bullish outlook for the US economy pushed the market to price in the possibility of at least three but potential..
Russian oil output was stable at 10.95 mb/d in February (93% compliance), lower y/y by 0.16 mb/d. The y/y declines were led by Bashneft (-60 thousand b/d), while Lukoil continues to constrain output (-30 thousand b/d), with Lukoil’s compliance averaging 110% so far in 2018.Russian crude exp..
US oil demand rose by 98 thousand b/d (0.5%) y/y to 20.08 mb/d in December 2017, a 0.50 mb/d downward revision to the weekly data, matching our projections. Despite declines in both gasoline and diesel demand, combined demand for the four main products fell by just 11 thousand b/d y/y while deman..
US crude production fell m/m by 0.11 mb/d in December 2017 to 9.95 mb/d, but was still higher y/y by 1.18 mb/d on a low base. Total liquids production averaged 15.06 mb/d, lower m/m by 0.24 mb/d but higher y/y by 1.77 mb/d. The m/m decline in crude output compares to our expectations of no fall,..
Extract from crude oil:Crude stocks built by 3.0 mb w/w in the US last week to 423.5 mb (-97 mb y/y), but the build was once again less than seasonal norms (+5.5 mb). This year, up until 22 February, US crude stocks have actually drawn by 2.6 mb, compared to last year’s builds of 49 mb acro..