The oil service, led by Amrita Sen, covers global crude and product markets. Energy Aspects publishes a comprehensive range of publications spanning data analysis, market fundamentals and geopolitical comment. Our team of experienced analysts provide the information and insight you need to stay ahead of the oil and oil products markets
Norwegian liquids output picked back up m/m in July, rising by 0.11 mb/d to 2.00 mb/d, but was sharply lower y/y, by 0.13 mb/d, dragging down year-to-July growth to just 29 thousand b/d y/y. Crude output in July was lower y/y by 0.11 mb/d, while NGLs were lower y/y for the third consecutive month..
Middle Eastern oil demand ex-bunkering for the top 10 countries grew y/y by 76 thousand b/d to 6.9 mb/d in June. A further weakening in Saudi oil demand, lower y/y by 0.13 mb/d (4.6%), was offset by gains in Iraq, UAE and Qatar. The decline in the Kingdom was largely due to gasoil, which fell y/y..
European June oil demand jumped to 15.99 mb/d, higher y/y by 0.78 mb/d, the strongest growth since November 2010, with Euro-5 demand higher y/y by 0.49 mb/d. Germany led once again (+0.31 mb/d), followed by France (+0.18 mb/d). The UK was the weak link, with demand falling again by over 5%. Favou..
Extract from crude oil: Another impressive week of draws (-9 mb) took US crude stocks to 466.5 mb, lower y/y by 24 mb, even before this year’s nearly 14 mb of linefill is stripped out from the data. Barring two small weekly builds, crude stocks have now drawn for 19 weeks since end-March, by a t..
Australian June oil demand stayed above 1 mb/d for the second consecutive month at 1.03 mb/d, higher y/y by 75 thousand b/d (7.8%). Diesel accounted for almost 80% of total oil demand growth at 59 thousand b/d. Recovery in the mining sector amidst stronger raw material prices is starting to have..
Flat price continues to lag the improvement in physical differentials and timespreads have only just started to catch up. The market fears unleashing a tsunami of shale production if prices rise above $50 and is still trying to keep 2018 US production in check. Yet, at $50 oil, demand is growing..
This week the key agency forecasts have been published. The EIA STEO was published Tuesday, OPEC published MOMR on Thursday and the IEA published OMR on Friday. This month’s key agency reports mostly revised demand growth estimates for 2017 higher, although they remain lower than our estimate of..
We estimate OPEC production rose m/m by 0.25 mb/d to 32.96 mb/d in July. This was the fourth consecutive increase and took output to its highest level in 2017. While the bulk of the gains came from Libya and Nigeria, which are not subject to output quotas, compliance by the other 12 mem..
Extract from crude oil: US crude stocks fell by 6.5 mb w/w to 475 mb, lower by 17.5 mb y/y even before adjusting for crude that has gone to fill pipes, helping drag total liquids stocks lower by 4.6 mb w/w to 1,312 mb, lower by 50 mb y/y. The crude draw was driven by high runs, which rose by 0.17..
Despite the strengthening of crude timespreads, particularly Brent, which is leading to the release of crude from storage, physical differentials are holding up. Not only are heavy crudes performing strongly—which is to be expected given both OPEC and non-OPEC producers are primarily cutting heav..
Brazilian liquids output ex-biofuels rose m/m by 26 thousand b/d to 2.79 mb/d, higher y/y by 0.14 mb/d (although the slowest pace since August 2016)—assisted by the connection of three new pre-salt wells which fuelled record high output at both Lula and Saphinoa. P-66 produced 26 thousand b/d fro..
Extract from crude oil: Crude stocks fell by 1.5 mb w/w to 482 mb, lower by 10 mb y/y, although the bulk of the draws were concentrated in the logistically isolated West Coast (-2.8 mb) compared to a build in the USGC (+1.8 mb). Runs rose w/w by 0.1 mb/d to 17.4 mb/d, while imports jumped by 0.21..
Russian oil output was steady m/m at 10.95 mb/d in July (95% compliance), higher y/y by just 70 thousand b/d. By September, we expect production to move lower y/y. While Gazprom Neft’s output rose, production fell at Rosneft, Bashneft and Surgutneftegaz’s operations. Russian crude exports were f..
US liquids production rose m/m in May to 14.02 mb/d, with y/y growth rising to 0.49 mb/d. The y/y increase in crude output totalled 0.32 mb/d, its highest level since September 2015. The Permian led the crude growth, rising y/y by 0.33 mb/d on our estimates. GoM output was higher y/y by 68 thousa..
US oil demand rose at its fastest y/y pace since July 2015, up by 0.82 mb/d (4.3%) to 20.02 mb/d in May. This represents a 0.16 mb/d downward revision to the weekly data, much smaller than our forecast for a 0.7 mb/d downward revision. Growth was broad-based, with demand for the main four product..