The oil service, led by Amrita Sen, covers global crude and product markets. Energy Aspects publishes a comprehensive range of publications spanning data analysis, market fundamentals and geopolitical comment. Our team of experienced analysts provide the information and insight you need to stay ahead of the oil and oil products markets
Norwegian liquids production fell m/m by 0.17 mb/d in September, totalling 1.77 mb/d. Output was higher y/y however, by 0.16 mb/d, due to heavy maintenance which cut September 2016 production by 0.25 mb/d y/y. The m/m reduction in output was largely the result of planned works which took the 0.1..
Extract from crude oil:Crude stocks fell by 5.7 mb to 456 mb, lower y/y by 12 mb. This reduced the surplus to the five-year average by nearly 10 mb w/w to 65.9 mb. A sharp drop in output from the Gulf of Mexico, where Hurricane Nate kept an average of 1.1 mb/d of production offline for a week, un..
European oil demand grew y/y by 60 thousand b/d to 15.9 mb/d in August, a far softer reading than the average H1 17 growth of 0.39 mb/d, as weaker LPG (-0.12 mb/d y/y) and naphtha readings (-11 thousand b/d y/y) weighed, although we expect naphtha demand to be revised up in line with recent trend..
Oil demand in the 10 top-consuming Middle Eastern countries (ex-bunkering), fell y/y by 0.26 mb/d to 6.72 mb/d in August. Saudi oil demand fell sharply by 0.26 mb/d y/y (9%) to 2.67 mb/d. Demand for all products declined y/y except for the ‘other products’ category. Diesel demand decl..
The pace of drawdown in global stockdraws has slowed in recent weeks, driven by a slowdown in demand growth. Several hurricanes dented September US demand, environmental restrictions weighed on Chinese demand from August through to October while new tax changes and a very heavy monsoon curtailed..
Australian oil demand grew by 60 thousand b/d y/y to 1.03 mb/d in August, staying above 1 mb/d for the fourth consecutive month which is the longest streak since at least 2009. Diesel demand continued to grow strongly, by 68 thousand b/d y/y which helped offset weakness in other products. Gasolin..
Extract from crude oil:Higher refinery runs (+0.23 mb/d to 16.3 mb/d) and slightly lower production helped offset a rise in imports (+0.40 mb/d to 7.6 mb/d) and drop in exports (to 1.27 mb/d), resulting in crude draws of 2.7 mb to 462 mb, lower y/y by 11.7 mb, with the difference to the five-year..
This week the key agency forecasts have been published. OPEC and EIA published MOMR and STEO yesterday the IEA published OMR this morning.The standout feature across the key agency reports this month is the upward revision to the ‘call on OPEC crude’ for both 2017 and 2018. Across the..
We estimate that OPEC production rose m/m by 0.10 mb/d to 32.77 mb/d in September. Compliance with the OPEC/non-OPEC deal fell only marginally, to 105% from 107% in August.Libyan output rose m/m by 60 thousand b/d to 0.92 mb/d, but remained below the recent high registered in July. An armed group..
The lurch in positioning from max-bearish to max-bullish in the span of just a few weeks has once again taken a toll on oil prices, even though time spreads have held up remarkably well. The market is terrified of a repeat of H1 17 despite fundamentals being far more compelling today.Fears around..
Extract from crude oil:US crude stocks fell by 6 mb w/w last week as imports fell by 0.2 mb/d w/w and exports surged by 0.49 mb/d to a record high at just under 2 mb/d. We have long held the view that US export capacity would not be constrained in the near term and September exports have averaged..
Brazilian liquids output ex-biofuels fell m/m by 58 thousand b/d in August to 2.68 mb/d, with output flipping into a y/y decline of 38 thousand b/d, the first decline since April 2016. In fact, since hitting a record 2.73 mb/d in December 2016, Brazilian crude production has stagnated at an avera..
The mood at the APPEC gathering in Singapore was far more upbeat than in the past few years. The only worry we have now is whether both prices and spreads have gotten ahead of themselves —so navigating positioning vs fundamentals will be key. Given the vast amount of US exports set to arriv..
Russian oil output was steady m/m at 10.91 mb/d in September (107% compliance) due to peak maintenance, pushing output lower y/y by 0.20 mb/d. The draft budget pegs 2018 oil output at 547 Mt, flat y/y, suggesting Russia may agree to extend production cuts beyond March 2018.Russian crude exports f..
The US recorded another month of strong oil demand growth in July, with demand up by 0.24 mb/d (1.2%) y/y to 20.02 mb/d. However, this represents a 0.91 mb/d downward revision to the weekly data, somewhat larger than our forecast for a 0.6 mb/d downward revision. Within this, demand for the four..