The oil service, led by Amrita Sen, covers global crude and product markets. Energy Aspects publishes a comprehensive range of publications spanning data analysis, market fundamentals and geopolitical comment. Our team of experienced analysts provide the information and insight you need to stay ahead of the oil and oil products markets
Within this report you will be able to review the latest figures published by Baker Hughes by oil and gas shale plays in the US and by province in Canada.Fig 1: US total rig countFig 2: Major shale plays oil rig countOilGasTotal21 Sep 188661861,053w/w chg.(1) ↓0 -(2) ↓y/y chg.1..
Extract from crude oil:Cushing drew for the second straight week in September, by 1.3 mb w/w, bringing stocks to 22.3 mb. We had forecast a 1.9 mb build for the month of September, and many others are also scratching their heads as to why September has seen draws so far. We believe part of the an..
Extract from demand:European oil demand fell y/y by 0.17 mb/d to 15.71 mb/d in July, led yet again by a decline in German demand (-0.29 mb/d y/y) that dragged EU-5 demand lower y/y by 0.13 mb/d. Demand in the other EU-5 countries all rose y/y, led by the UK (+72 thousand b/d). Peripheral Eur..
Oil demand in the 10 top-consuming Middle Eastern countries (ex-bunkering) dropped by 0.23 mb/d y/y to 6.48 mb/d in July. Saudi Arabian demand plummeted by 0.38 mb/d y/y to 2.42 mb/d, led by fuel oil (-0.18 mb/d y/y). Fuel oil’s y/y contraction was surprising, especially as crude burn also..
Extract from production:We forecast that Canadian liquids production fell m/m by 63 thousand b/d to 4.89 mb/d in July, higher y/y by just 73 thousand b/d, the slowest rate of growth since August 2016. The m/m decrease was led by synthetic production falling by 0.16 mb/d m/m, due to the Mildred La..
Australian oil demand growth remained robust at 39 thousand b/d y/y in July, with demand at 1.04 mb/d. Australia’s economy grew by 3.4% y/y in Q2 18, its fastest pace in almost six years. Construction and mining led GDP growth, with coal mining making its biggest contribution since 2014. Unsurpri..
Norwegian liquids production declined m/m by 42 thousand b/d in August to 1.87 mb/d, lower y/y by 54 thousand b/d, from an already low maintenance-affected base. Norwegian production has been ravaged by steepening decline rates this year, with year-to-August production lower y/y by 0.14 mb/d. Fro..
Refiners are switching away from sour crudes, as the tightness in sour crudes is increasingly more acute. Iranian exports are falling fast and may even fall to (or below) 1 mb/d in November as both India and China are seemingly cutting back more than anyone had expected. This means refiners will..
This week the key agency forecasts have been published: EIA’s STEO on Tuesday, OPEC’s MOMR yesterday and the IEA’s OMR this morning.Revisions across key agency reports over the course of this week were fairly benign. Demand for 2018 was left mostly unchanged, while 2019 demand growth was revised..
We estimate that OPEC production went up m/m by 0.48 mb/d to 32.96 mb/d in August, higher y/y by just 20 thousand b/d. Nevertheless, compliance with the OPEC/non-OPEC deal was down only marginally, to 112%, from 119% in July, because most of the output gains came from producers (namely Libya and..
Our Europe, Middle East & Africa Quarterly (EMEAQ) provides comprehensive analysis of the EMEA region, examining key topics in depth and providing a detailed guide to regional supply, demand, trade flows and downstream capacity. Each quarter, ‘In Focus’ pieces delve into key issues that will..
Extract from crude oil:The Plains All American Sunrise expansion remains a hot topic. Debottlenecking Wichita Falls will allow more flow on the Basin pipeline into Cushing and will also indirectly back more barrels into the hub as refiners pull less out of lines that either feed into or draw from..
Sentiment in the physical oil market versus the paper market is starting to diverge again, although this time it is the physical market that is bullish. Sweet-sour switching is fully underway as sour crude refining margins have compressed substantially and refiners must start to ration sour crude..
Extract from crude oil:US Gulf Coast grades continued to strengthen versus WTI on the back of a wider WTI-Brent arb and the impact of Tropical Storm Gordon. Grades have strengthened across the board and are at mid-June levels, when WTI-Brent was last at -$8. While USGC grades have strengthened ve..
Brazilian liquids production fell by 15 thousand b/d m/m in July to 2.69 mb/d, lower y/y by 48 thousand b/d and down for the third consecutive month. Campos basin output was lower y/y by 0.15 mb/d (12%) at 1.13 mb/d. Since peaking at 1.8 mb/d in December 2014, production has fallen by almost 0.7..