The oil service, led by Amrita Sen, covers global crude and product markets. Energy Aspects publishes a comprehensive range of publications spanning data analysis, market fundamentals and geopolitical comment. Our team of experienced analysts provide the information and insight you need to stay ahead of the oil and oil products markets
Extract from crude oil:Unsurprisingly, WTI spreads have been on a wild ride. Prompt spreads have come off over $1 in the last week, as ways to resupply Cushing are becoming a bit clearer. The restart of Syncrude’s Mildred Lake upgrader 10 days earlier than initially announced will also help..
European oil demand plummeted by 0.43 mb/d y/y to 15.04 mb/d in May, led by a 0.34 mb/d y/y decline in German demand, which dragged EU-5 demand lower by 0.31 mb/d. While German demand has been weak, it is unlikely to have been as weak as the data suggest; indeed, German demand has been consistent..
Extract from production:The big news in Canada has continued to be the outage at the Syncrude Mildred Lake upgrader. The 0.35 mb/d facility experienced a power outage on 20 June from a blown transformer, strengthening the Canadian crude complex. Synthetic crude rallied by $1.70 per barrel vs WTI..
Oil demand in the 10 top-consuming Middle Eastern countries (ex-bunkering) dropped by 71 thousand b/d y/y to 6.38 mb/d in May. Saudi Arabian demand fell by 23 thousand b/d y/y to 2.51 mb/d, with a mixed performance across products. Crude burn in the Kingdom fell heavily, by 0.19 mb/d y/y to 0.41..
The football World Cup has left many around the world heart-broken (ex. France), much like the feeling oil bulls are going through as Brent spreads flirt with contango. The timing mismatch between the loss of Iranian production and rising output in the GCC and elsewhere, particularly light sweet..
Australian oil demand growth kept pace in May, rising y/y by 62 thousand b/d despite a high base. We expected demand growth to slow from May onwards as a high base from 2017 should have started to weigh on growth rates. But demand growth in May outpaced even the 12-month average of 34 thousand b/..
We estimate that OPEC production rose m/m by 0.15 mb/d to 32.03 mb/d in June, but was lower y/y by 0.67 mb/d. Compliance with the OPEC/non-OPEC deal was down to 124%, from 161% in May. Compliance excluding Venezuela fell to a record low of 69%, compared with 112% in May. Congo joined OPEC on 22 J..
The past three days have seen each of the key agencies publish their monthly forecasts. The EIA’s STEO on Tuesday, OPEC’s MOMR came out yesterday, while the IEA published the OMR this morning.The supply-demand estimates for all three agencies continue to diverge sharply. The EIA and OPEC continu..
Extract from crude oil:US commercial crude stocks fell by a massive 12.6 mb w/w (compared to seasonal draws of 4.3 mb) to 405.2 mb as stocks in all five PADDs were lower w/w. The largest draws were seen in PADD 3, where stocks fell by 7.2 mb w/w to 208.8 mb, the largest draw since October 2017. T..
Norwegian liquids production rose m/m by 88 thousand b/d to 1.75 mb/d in June, but this was still lower y/y by 0.14 mb/d. This was 3% below the NPD’s June forecast and across H1 18 liquids output underperformed NPD expectations by 4%. Decline rates from existing assets have been the key-dri..
The market is getting tired of waiting for tighter balances, and their arrival date has been pushed back to Q4 18 thanks to GCC and Russia raising production pre-emptively before the market loses Iranian barrels. Unless the prompt overhang—which has lasted for a bit too long—clears, it will be ha..
Extract from crude oil:The WTI-Brent arb, which averaged -$9.73 for most of July trade, rallied to -$3.62 at close on 3 July. With Cushing pricing to refill, USGC crudes have also had to adjust. MEH took the biggest hit, falling by $2.67 w/w to just $1.65 at close on 3 July. This is the first ste..
Brazilian liquids production in May rose m/m by 11 thousand b/d to 2.73 mb/d, lower y/y by 43 thousand b/d. The fall was driven by the Campos basin, where output plunged to 1.16 mb/d (-0.26 mb/d y/y) as decline rates rose to 18%. We had assumed a 15% decline, so actual output was 38 thousand b/d..
The oil market is at a crossroads right now, grappling with what looks like a significant deficit in the future, as Iranian exports are set to plummet following the US decision not to issue any waivers, as well as prompt oversupply driven by a pre-emptive Saudi Arabian production rise. So, even t..
Russian oil production in June rose by 90 thousand b/d m/m to 11.06 mb/d (56% compliance) as output was hiked ahead of the June OPEC/non-OPEC meeting (much like Saudi Arabia) to prepare for higher output in H2 18. In the near term, we expect Russian output to increase by less than 0.2 mb/d vs May..