Carbon weekly

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 15 Jul 2019 by
    EUAs finally broke out, to the upside, of the 23.7-27.9 €/t range that they had been in since April amid news flow last week. Some news was more bullish than others. First, there was a refocus on the European Court of Justice judgement of 20 June regarding a case between ExxonMobil and the German..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 8 Jul 2019 by
    Lignite power plants are increasingly getting priced out of the generation stack, which could weigh on EUA demand this year. We have frequently talked about the coal-to-gas switch, which is occurring because of low prevailing gas prices in the EU, but we had expected less lignite-to-gas switching..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 1 Jul 2019 by
    The w/w gains last week appeared to have both technical and fundamental drivers. At the start of June, the market had repeatedly tried to break downside support lines and failed, which was followed by trading for almost two weeks in an ever-narrower band, signalling some sort of breakout would co..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 24 Jun 2019 by
    In a week where EUA prices traded in one of the narrowest weekly ranges for a long time, there were important developments affecting the market’s long and short-term prospects. One key development that should affect 2020 levels of free allocation is an EU court ruling that upheld an earlier..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 17 Jun 2019 by
    One of the remaining uncertainties for supply in the current phase of the ETS was cleared up as Poland informed the Commission of its intentions for the volumes of EUAs it removed from its auction cap and set aside for its power sector under a derogation from auctioning. Under this derogation, al..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 10 Jun 2019 by
    Brexit risk seems to be growing, with EUA prices last week testing some key technical support levels but failing to drop below the 90-day average. Most fundamentals remain bearish. The UK is still focused on the Conservative party leadership contest, with Boris Johnson the frontrunner and Michael..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 3 Jun 2019 by
    Brexit risk is back and is preventing any moves to the upside, as mentioned last week in Carbon Weekly. In addition, a growing torrent of other bearish developments tipped European carbon prices downwards last week. Most of the growing bearish sentiment is from the slowdown in the global macroeco..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 28 May 2019 by
    Brexit risk is back, which will likely remove most of the upside potential from the EUA market. As has been the case throughout most of 2019, political developments in the UK have moved quickly. Prime Minster Theresa May announced last week that she will resign on 7 June, after her latest attempt..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 20 May 2019 by
    Two announcements last week helped resolve some minor uncertainty around the 2019 and 2020 EU ETS balances. The first was the late Wednesday announcement by the European Commission that the total number of allowances in circulation (TNAC) for 2018 was 1.65 Gt, largely the same as last year. The p..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 13 May 2019 by
    The German government has been engaging in a lengthy discussion over extending carbon pricing to sectors not currently covered by the EU ETS. The two main sectors mentioned are transport and construction, although the CO2 associated with the manufacture of building materials such as cement, glass..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 7 May 2019 by
    The EUA market feels like it is settling into a new trading range, with prices currently in the middle of 24-28 €/t. A notable feature of trading over the last few weeks—during which there has been a sharp move up at the start of April, followed by a downward correction—is that t..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 29 Apr 2019 by
    Next week's Carbon Weekly will be published on Tuesday 7 May, owing to the UK bank holiday.Just when it looked like the EUA market was going to settle into a new range, technicals kicked-in and prices dropped. Over most of last week, the market traded in a tightening range around 27.4 €/t. T..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 23 Apr 2019 by
    In a relatively uneventful week, EUA prices settled into a new range between 26-28 €/t. With Brexit news not expected to resurface in the coming week, the market will be looking more at technicals for direction than fundamentals. Some late compliance buying could come from British Steel, a m..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 15 Apr 2019 by
    Next week's edition of Carbon weekly will be published on Tuesday 23 April, owing to the UK bank holiday.EUA prices held onto the gains provided by the Brexit relief rally, closing Friday up by 8% w/w at 26.58 €/t, with the chaos of a no-deal Brexit avoided for now. A fractious EU eventually deci..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 8 Apr 2019 by
    EUA prices gapped up in the second half of last week despite 2018 verified emissions coming in at an implied 3.8% y/y fall when data was released on 1 April, which was toward the high end of expectations for the drop. By Friday’s close (5 April), Dec-19 was at 24.6 €/t (+14% w/w). The surge in pr..

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