Carbon weekly

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 16 Sep 2019 by
    Further Brexit drama this week was overshadowed by a trio of news stories that had implications for the EU ETS market. The one with the greatest potential impact on the EU ETS was the announcement by EDF that some of its 58 nuclear reactors may contain key components affected by welding anomalies..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 9 Sep 2019 by
    After a week of further drama in the UK parliament, EUAs continued to test downside but the only conclusion we feel comfortable drawing is that the risk of a no-deal Brexit on 31 October has receded. The parliament is in the process of passing a law that would require the prime minister to ask fo..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 2 Sep 2019 by
    August was a somewhat perplexing month. The month started bullish in anticipation of four weeks of reduced auction supply but ended bearish on a combination of poor economic data, Brexit risks and a return to higher weekly auction volumes. August tends to be a month of sequential price gains, but..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 27 Aug 2019 by
    The continued apparent willingness of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to talk up a potential no-deal Brexit has started to weigh on EUAs over the last few weeks. The typical price support in August from low auction supply has been replaced by a market desire to start to price in no-deal Brexit ri..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 5 Aug 2019 by
    Carbon weekly will take a summer break. The next edition will be published on 27 August. A Brexit-related issue being discussed more is the future of carbon pricing for UK installations. The most pressing question is what happens from 31 October. If there is a no-deal Brexit, UK installations wou..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 29 Jul 2019 by
    In a week when the outlook for Brexit turned decidedly bearish for the EUA market, EUA prices were far more interested in testing the upside than reflecting any concern about UK political developments. The winner of the Conservative Party leadership contest was Boris Johnson, as expected. Upon be..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 22 Jul 2019 by
    EUAs broke above the resistance level at 27.9 €/t in the week ending 12 July and have stayed above there, trading around 28 €/t in the week ending 19 July. That new higher trading range will likely come under downward pressure this week as no-deal Brexit risk will move back into the spo..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 15 Jul 2019 by
    EUAs finally broke out, to the upside, of the 23.7-27.9 €/t range that they had been in since April amid news flow last week. Some news was more bullish than others. First, there was a refocus on the European Court of Justice judgement of 20 June regarding a case between ExxonMobil and the G..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 8 Jul 2019 by
    Lignite power plants are increasingly getting priced out of the generation stack, which could weigh on EUA demand this year. We have frequently talked about the coal-to-gas switch, which is occurring because of low prevailing gas prices in the EU, but we had expected less lignite-to-gas switching..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 1 Jul 2019 by
    The w/w gains last week appeared to have both technical and fundamental drivers. At the start of June, the market had repeatedly tried to break downside support lines and failed, which was followed by trading for almost two weeks in an ever-narrower band, signalling some sort of breakout would co..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 24 Jun 2019 by
    In a week where EUA prices traded in one of the narrowest weekly ranges for a long time, there were important developments affecting the market’s long and short-term prospects. One key development that should affect 2020 levels of free allocation is an EU court ruling that upheld an earlier..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 17 Jun 2019 by
    One of the remaining uncertainties for supply in the current phase of the ETS was cleared up as Poland informed the Commission of its intentions for the volumes of EUAs it removed from its auction cap and set aside for its power sector under a derogation from auctioning. Under this derogation, al..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 10 Jun 2019 by
    Brexit risk seems to be growing, with EUA prices last week testing some key technical support levels but failing to drop below the 90-day average. Most fundamentals remain bearish. The UK is still focused on the Conservative party leadership contest, with Boris Johnson the frontrunner and Michael..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 3 Jun 2019 by
    Brexit risk is back and is preventing any moves to the upside, as mentioned last week in Carbon Weekly. In addition, a growing torrent of other bearish developments tipped European carbon prices downwards last week. Most of the growing bearish sentiment is from the slowdown in the global macroeco..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 28 May 2019 by
    Brexit risk is back, which will likely remove most of the upside potential from the EUA market. As has been the case throughout most of 2019, political developments in the UK have moved quickly. Prime Minster Theresa May announced last week that she will resign on 7 June, after her latest attempt..

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