Carbon weekly

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 21 Jan 2019 by
    Oh Brexit—the topic that promises to keep on injecting volatility into the carbon market, at least over the next few months. Last week, the UK parliament rejected the Brexit deal that had been negotiated by Theresa May’s government and the EU. While the carbon market surged after the vote, appear..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 14 Jan 2019 by
    One of the key uncertainties hanging over the EU ETS has been what will happen to UK installations come Brexit. The vote in the UK parliament, which will now take place on Tuesday (15 January), on Theresa May’s negotiated Brexit deal could help provide some clarity. If the withdrawal agreement is..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 7 Jan 2019 by
    Despite the huge gains in EUA prices in 2018, the market consensus is bullish for 2019. That bullishness continues to stem from the expected impacts of the market stability reserve (MSR), which from 1 January will remove 400 Mt from EUA auction supply across 2019. Still, how bullish the market wi..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 17 Dec 2018 by
    Please note that this will be the last Carbon Weekly of 2018. The next edition will be published on 7 January. We wish our readers a prosperous 2019!The UNFCCC annual climate conference (COP24) finished last week in Poland, with agreement on many technical aspects for implementing the Paris..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 10 Dec 2018 by
    This week will be big for the carbon market, with two key events that the market will be watching carefully. On Tuesday, the UK parliament will vote on Prime Minister Theresa May’s Brexit deal. The signs are that the deal will be rejected by parliament, as the opposition has largely rejected it a..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 3 Dec 2018 by
    While the EUA market continued to orbit 20 €/t last week, there were two policy announcements with longer-term ETS implications. On 27 November, the French energy ministry released a new energy policy that represented a considerable deceleration in the pace of nuclear plant closures envisaged in..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 26 Nov 2018 by
    The EUA market was busy testing upside resistance last week, while background noise came from developments both on Brexit and from the German coal committee. The UK’s exit process from the EU continues to balance on a knife edge. The success of UK prime minister Theresa May in getting the leaving..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 19 Nov 2018 by
    While carbon traded in a wide 2.4 €/t range last week, the market began turning its attention to German coal policy. The first findings of the German coal commission, set up to plot the country’s eventual path to exit both coal mining and coal-fired power generation, was published in late October..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 12 Nov 2018 by
    In last week’s report, we concluded that the Dec-18 EUA contract could spend the period up to contract expiry pricing in a 15.1-20.0 €/t range. While we admitted that is a wide range, we still did not really expect the market to trade the full width of that range in just one week. Prices started..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 5 Nov 2018 by
    The EUA market had been testing the downside over the previous three weeks, without really breaking key support levels. However, the Dec-18 contract smashed through the 17.8 €/t support level on Monday and kept falling though the first four days of last week. After hitting a within-day low o..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 29 Oct 2018 by
    The EUA market now seems just as poised to fall as previously it was to go up. Trading has been mostly rangebound since mid-August, with the last few weeks being more about the market being keen to test technical resistance to the downside than the upside. We still see some key technical resistan..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 22 Oct 2018 by
    A report published late Friday evening (19 October) by Carbon Pulse claimed that the record open interest (OI) on EU carbon allowance futures and options this year is misleading due to how one of the main exchanges, EEX, reports its volumes. EEX has been the exchange where the bulk of the increas..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 15 Oct 2018 by
    The UK government released a paper late on Friday (12 October) which outlined what will happen in the event of a no-deal Brexit in March 2019. In essence, the announcement aligned with our expectations. Namely, UK installations will leave the EU ETS and this will happen immediately. UK installati..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 8 Oct 2018 by
    The EUA market may have settled into a 20-22 €/t range over the last few weeks, but there has been a notable widening of the contango across the curve. The implied cost of carry for the Dec-18–Dec-20 spread has gone from 1.8% per annum (p.a.) at the start of September to 3.5% p.a. at F..

    Read more

  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 1 Oct 2018 by
    One development from late in the summer that has implications for Q4 18 price formation is the suspension of German EUA auctions from 14 November through to part of Q1 19, with a currently unknown specific return date. The suspension is to do with the renewal of EEX’s contract to be Ge..

    Read more