Carbon weekly

  • European Carbon

    European Carbon cover image Published 18 Nov 2019 by
    The EUA market is looking technically weak, though traders will continue to watch how the German coal commission’s recommendations are written into law. Draft laws were released last week showing that the German government plans to reach its 2022 coal closure targets largely through negotiated sh..

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  • European Carbon

    Published 11 Nov 2019 by
    With Brexit now into a hiatus as the UK enters a general election period, the EU carbon market’s focus is turning to, among other things, the expiry of Dec-19 options and forward contracts in mid-December. Net open interest (OI) in Dec-19 EUA forward contracts on ICE is down by some 69 Mt (-16%)..

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  • European Carbon

    European Carbon cover image Published 4 Nov 2019 by
    Another Brexit deadline has come and gone and now the UK faces a general election on 12 December. The implication for the EU ETS is that the parliamentary process for UK Brexit legislation is now stalled until after the election, which will determine the future direction for the process of the UK..

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  • European Carbon

    European Carbon cover image Published 28 Oct 2019 by
    Given this was the week of the 31 October Brexit deadline, the EU carbon market is likely to remain preoccupied by all things Brexit. On 19 October the UK government asked for an extension that it apparently did not want and this was granted by the EU early on 28 October. The Withdrawal Agreement..

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  • European Carbon

    European Carbon cover image Published 21 Oct 2019 by
    The EUA market will continue to pay close attention to Brexit developments in the coming week, as uncertainty persists over the next steps. One takeaway from last week is that a no-deal exit on 31 October now looks even more unlikely. UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson agreed an exit deal with the E..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 14 Oct 2019 by
    The volatility that saw EUAs hit a six-month low last week before bouncing back to post a 6.5% w/w gain by Friday’s close indicates that the market is in two minds. The story remains the same: bearish demand fundamentals including weak industrial production (IP) readings and low gas prices; suppo..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 7 Oct 2019 by
    While no single event trigger was apparent last week, the growing tide of bearish news finally pushed the market out of its latest range with EUA prices dropping some 9.3% w/w. A range of factors bubbling in the background have provided a bearish narrative for a while, including weakness in Europ..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 30 Sep 2019 by
    Most of the market focus last week shifted to European Commission President-elect Ursula von der Leyen’s emphasis on the ‘European Green Deal’, which is to be the hallmark policy of the coming five years. Embedded in the deal is a commitment to becoming the world’s first c..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 23 Sep 2019 by
    The carbon market stayed rangebound last week despite some more clarity on the safety anomalies involving EDF’s French nuclear plants. We estimated last week that 14.4 GW of capacity could be at risk of a potential shutdown. However, EDF announced later in the week that the plants that are affect..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 16 Sep 2019 by
    Further Brexit drama this week was overshadowed by a trio of news stories that had implications for the EU ETS market. The one with the greatest potential impact on the EU ETS was the announcement by EDF that some of its 58 nuclear reactors may contain key components affected by welding anomalies..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 9 Sep 2019 by
    After a week of further drama in the UK parliament, EUAs continued to test downside but the only conclusion we feel comfortable drawing is that the risk of a no-deal Brexit on 31 October has receded. The parliament is in the process of passing a law that would require the prime minister to ask fo..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 2 Sep 2019 by
    August was a somewhat perplexing month. The month started bullish in anticipation of four weeks of reduced auction supply but ended bearish on a combination of poor economic data, Brexit risks and a return to higher weekly auction volumes. August tends to be a month of sequential price gains, but..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 27 Aug 2019 by
    The continued apparent willingness of UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson to talk up a potential no-deal Brexit has started to weigh on EUAs over the last few weeks. The typical price support in August from low auction supply has been replaced by a market desire to start to price in no-deal Brexit ri..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 5 Aug 2019 by
    Carbon weekly will take a summer break. The next edition will be published on 27 August. A Brexit-related issue being discussed more is the future of carbon pricing for UK installations. The most pressing question is what happens from 31 October. If there is a no-deal Brexit, UK installations wou..

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  • European carbon

    European carbon cover image Published 29 Jul 2019 by
    In a week when the outlook for Brexit turned decidedly bearish for the EUA market, EUA prices were far more interested in testing the upside than reflecting any concern about UK political developments. The winner of the Conservative Party leadership contest was Boris Johnson, as expected. Upon be..

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