Extract from crude oil:Crude stocks rose by 4.6 mb w/w to 472.8 mb. The builds were driven by PADD 3, where stocks rose by 3.7 mb w/w to 245.5 mb. This comes despite a 1.3 mb/d w/w jump in PADD 3 runs to just under 7 mb/d and a 0.15 mb/d w/w increase in exports. Higher throughputs and exports wer..
We are pleased to introduce our new Lower 48 gas storage report. This report provides our forecast for the upcoming EIA storage report, a preliminary estimate for next week’s report and a summary of key supply and demand changes. Panorama will now be published on Thursday’s, after the EIA report,..
Japan’s LNG imports fell by 6% (0.47 Mt) y/y in August to 7.26 Mt, as cooler weather helped curb power generation. August posted the largest y/y drop in Japanese LNG imports since December 2016, with imports over the earlier months of 2017 broadly higher or flat y/y.The weather in Japan las..
Indian LNG imports slipped by 0.05 Mt y/y to 1.58 Mt (2.08 bcm) in August, as higher power demand was met by a sharp jump in coal-fired generation instead of gas-powered output.Rising global LNG prices may have led price-sensitive India to turn down spot cargo purchases last month. Prices for Aug..
Indian oil demand fell y/y by 0.26 mb/d to 3.96 mb/d in August on both a high base (demand rose y/y by 0.65 mb/d in August 2016) and severe rains that caused widespread flooding in west and northeast India, leading to sharp reductions in construction and vehicles miles travelled. However, petcoke..
Heavy maintenance affected Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) output throughout the summer. With more works scheduled for October, output will continue to see day-to-day swings, but disruptions are scheduled to be more minor than seen so far in September. We expect WCSB output growth to hi..
NBP and continental gas prices continued their bull run last week, supported by high coal prices, unseasonably cold weather, low LNG receipts, and tighter pipeline supply.NBP D+1 prices averaged 46.97 p/therm last week, up by 2% w/w, and the NBP M+1 edged up by 0.56 p/therm w/w to an average of 4..
This month we release an enhanced Europe oil data review, containing additional analysis of trends in demand, refinery throughput and leading economic indicators.European oil demand grew y/y by 0.38 mb/d to 15.77 mb/d in July, although Euro-5 demand fell y/y by 16 thousand b/d, due to a surprisin..
Middle Eastern oil demand for the top 10 countries, ex-bunkering, grew y/y by 0.17 mb/d to a record high above 7 mb/d in July. Saudi oil demand recovered after two consecutive months of decline, led by fuel oil, which was up by 0.23 mb/d to a record 0.73 mb/d, with demand buoyed by higher require..
Last week saw yet more volatility in the European carbon market, with softness at the start and end of the week and price increases mid-week—EUAs hit an intra-day high of 7.72 €/t on Thursday. The market was reacting to MEPs voting to void any EUAs issued or sold, from 2018, by a gover..
As the entire Brent curve tilts towards backwardation, proof that the oil market is rebalancing is obvious. We estimate that the global overhang relative to the five-year average has now fallen below 200 mb, from a peak of 600 mb. Physical crude differentials are strong globally, barring a few ex..
South Korea imported 2.6 Mt of LNG in August, 0.63 Mt more y/y despite weaker demand, with imports once again supported by receipts to non-KOGAS terminals.Qatari volumes made up the largest single portion of imports, at 0.95 Mt in August. This was a 0.13 Mt y/y rise that pointed to greater..
We are still impressed by the strength in the physical Brent market, and in particular the continued rally in spreads. The firming of crude structure is draining storage from the North Sea as the incentive to store is gone, and yet physical crude differentials and margins both remain strong. This..
Our last outlook, Summer softness, July/August 2017, marvelled at the weakness of the European gas markets, seemingly resistant to a number of supportive drivers such as hot weather in early summer, rising coal prices and low hydro levels in southern Europe. Fast forward almost two months and the..
Norwegian gas output posted a 2.34 bcm (29%) y/y increase to 10.37 bcm in August—the highest y/y rise since April 2016—owing to a light annual maintenance schedule and brisk Troll output. Planned maintenance in August—heavier than in July but still much lighter compared with August 2016—was..