The outlook for middle distillates continues to improve. US stocks are down by more than 20 mb since the start of the year and inventories are draining elsewhere too. The drawdowns have halved the overhang in visible middle distillates inventories to just 17 mb, and with Asia and the FSU only sta..
Canadian gas demand saw strong growth in March, increasing by around 1.7 bcf/d y/y (15%) to 11.5 bcf/d, though much of this is down to last year’s incredibly mild March. All regions experienced solid demand growth over the month on these base effects. Looking at trade, pipeline data indicate tha..
Japan imported 8.14 Mt of LNG in March, largely unchanged y/y and only slightly above the 8.05 Mt January-February average. Over Q1 17, Japanese LNG imports are up by 1.4 Mt (6%) y/y at 24.2 Mt. Japanese LNG imports have been healthy so far this year, in part as a result of colder weather than la..
Total gas supply to Mexico fell by 4% y/y to 5.38 bcf/d in February due to rapidly declining domestic production, but LNG imports posted their largest y/y increase in nearly a year. Aggregate gas demand continued its y/y decline in February, falling by 0.77 bcf/d to 4.78 bcf/d, which is the lowe..
Extract from crude oil: Cushing stocks drew by 0.8 mb w/w to 68.6 mb, taking the total Cushing draw across April to 0.5 mb so far. The weekly draw was driven by surging flows on BP1, a pipeline carrying crude oil from Cushing to BP’s Whiting refinery. The gyrations of BP1 flows are a long-standi..
Storage levels have started to climb, and last week’s 10 bcf injection was largely in line with our expectations and those of the market. With overall lower-48 temperatures still looking seasonally mild, HDDs are beginning to lose their sway over demand. Indeed, Henry Hub (HH) cash prices s..
South Korea imported 3.53 Mt of LNG in March, which is a touch lower than February’s 3.60 Mt but still 0.10 Mt higher y/y. That said, it is the smallest y/y increase the country has logged since October 2016. Imports were still higher than demand of 3.22 Mt, which suggests that South Korea made a..
Indian oil demand fell y/y by 28 thousand b/d in March to 4.37 mb/d, weighed down by declines in fuel oil (-35 thousand b/d), kerosene (-38 thousand b/d) and naphtha (-6 thousand b/d). As expected, the weakening in the pace of LPG demand growth (+13 thousand b/d y/y) also weighed, given the shar..
Total Canadian liquids production rose by 0.14 mb/d m/m in January to 4.93 mb/d, higher by 0.25 mb/d y/y. The m/m liquids growth was 60 thousand b/d shy of our forecast, as bitumen output was in-line with expectations but synthetic crude production underperformed following operational issues at t..
European February oil demand rose by 0.12 mb/d y/y to 15.16 mb/d, with growth rates easing from January’s 0.54 mb/d. Peripheral Europe and Turkey contributed to nearly 0.13 mb/d of growth, while Euro-5 demand fell y/y by 12 thousand b/d, the first decline since September 2016, dragged sharply low..
Middle Eastern oil demand for the top 10 countries ex-bunkering grew y/y by 0.28 mb/d to 6.08 mb/d in February. This marks the third consecutive month of growth, following y/y declines of 0.16 mb/d in Q4 16. Growth was led by exceptionally strong demand from Iraq, up y/y by 0.12 mb/d (21%), driv..
Last week, while NBP contracts for delivery in Q3 17 dropped sharply, winter 17-18 prices jumped after Centrica Storage (CSL) announced that injection capacity at UK’s Rough storage facility will be offline until at least May 2018 (for details, see E-mail alert: Centrica announces Rough injectio..
The ETS market stayed reasonably well supported last week, although the long Easter weekend left auction volumes truncated at 17.6 Mt. The current week faces a similar number of EUAs being offered, with another four-day week shortening the auction calendar. There were few other big changes last w..
Away from all the daily range-bound trading, there are some strange things going on in the oil market. The Brent-Dubai EFS has narrowed to below $1, yet June/July Dubai spreads are -55 cents. A narrow EFS should be supportive for Brent and WTI spreads as this allows for more arbitrage crude flows..
Australian oil demand rose y/y for the fourth consecutive month in February, by 4 thousand b/d to 0.99 mb/d. Growth was driven by middle distillates, with jet (+10 thousand b/d) and diesel (+7 thousand b/d) demand both up, and jet demand at a new record of 0.16 mb/d. Diesel demand—up alongside mi..