Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 21 Sep) – EA Final Estimate: +58 bcfA late blast of heat pushed the injection rate down by 28 bcf w/w to 58 bcf. National pop-weighted cooling degree days (CDDs) shot up by 35% w/w due to high temperatures in the Midwest and South Central. Chicago saw highs of 95..
The EUA super bull run of 2018 shows no signs of slowing down despite the odd high-volatility pricing event. Prices in late September were above 22 €/t, having started the year around 7 €/t. The high sustained carbon prices are supporting related markets, with TTF winter-delivery gas pr..
Mexican liquids production fell m/m by 35 thousand b/d to 2.05 mb/d in August, lower y/y by 0.14 mb/d. Light crude led the m/m decline, with production down by 16 thousand b/d, likely due to hefty declines in Olmeca production, as super-light output fell m/m by 81 thousand b/d and light productio..
Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) imported 1.35 Mt of LNG in August, lower y/y by 0.34 Mt. Rising production in Egypt, and to a lesser extent Kuwait, continues to put structural downward pressure on total imports even during the peak of summer. A slight decline in MENA LNG expo..
According to our crude balances, Q4 18 is set to be the tightest quarter we have seen in over a decade and tighter than any quarter we are currently predicting for 2019. This is due to a combination of the steep decline in Iranian exports, a lack of any near term spare capacity and the resurgence..
The theme for this upcoming heating season’s cash market will be deliverability vs availability. The market has long been complacent about the forecast shale-era low storage carryout for end-October given record-high production and expectations of another deluge of supply this winter. Howev..
With winter fast approaching and HDDs already on the rise, Canada is entering the heating season. Res-com demand typically spikes from 1.1 bcf/d in the summer to an average of 4.5 bcf/d from November–May. A 10% colder-than-average winter would result in an additional 100 bcf in res-com demand alo..
Users licensed for the data service can access our China gas balances and gas imports data.Chinese gas imports surged again in August, reaching 7.7 Mt (+2,04 Mt y/y, 36%), as two new regas terminals received commissioning cargoes, and industrial demand continued to support gas consumption. LNG ta..
We are on the cusp of the gas winter and the TTF M+1 contract has been surging upwards, with Q1-19 closing above 29.0 €/MWh by mid-September, the highest closing price in a decade. The root causes of the rally are likely to stay around for a while, with both the stubborn y/y storage deficit and t..
If in August the market had been holding out hope of closing the y/y storage gap by October, a sustained late summer slowdown of Russian flows followed by revised weather forecasts indicating a late September cold snap have buried those hopes. We forecast that Europe will now enter winter with st..
We had expected more pronounced market softness in the run-up to the expiry of Sep-18 EUA options on 19 September and forecast underlying EUAs to trade below 19 €/t given the balance in open interest between in-the-money calls and puts. The market traded just above the 20 €/t strike in..
According to our crude balances, Q4 18 is set to be the tightest quarter in over a decade and tighter than any quarter we are currently predicting for 2019, due to the steep decline in Iranian exports, a lack of any near-term spare capacity and the resurgence of Chinese teapot buying, which pushe..
Chinese implied demand in August reached 12.31 mb/d, higher y/y by 0.36 mb/d (3%) off a weak base. Actual demand was probably higher than implied data as product stocks likely drew sharply. We estimate actual demand was 0.6-0.7 mb/d higher y/y.Apparent gasoline demand reached 3.22 mb/d in August,..
Korean oil demand fell y/y for the second consecutive month, by 19 thousand b/d to 2.50 mb/d, as a slowdown in economic growth is starting to weigh on oil consumption. Industrial production growth peaked in Q3 17 and has struggled for annual gains this year. The August manufacturing PMI of 49.9 w..
Indian oil demand fell by 0.13 mb/d m/m to 4.18 mb/d in August, the lowest level in a year as growth was tempered by severe floods in South India, but was higher y/y by 32 thousand b/d. However, these figures are distorted by weak readings for petcoke and other oils while demand for the main four..