Within this report you will be able to review the latest figures published by Baker Hughes by gas shale plays in the US and by province in Canada.Fig 1: US total rig countFig 2: Appalachian shale plays gas rig countSource: Baker Hughes, Energy AspectsSource: Baker Hughes, Energy Aspects..
The JKM LNG curve was softer this week again as NE Asian weather remains distinctly spring-like. As last week, the warmth is allowing some regional stockbuilds, particularly given heavy buying of March cargoes by the region’s utilities after the cold January and February. JKM-TTF spreads na..
The oil markets bucked the broader trend in risk markets this week by extending a rally that began last Friday despite some major macro headwinds. Broader risk assets have sold off as the market digests a host of developments: a Fed which is hiking rates, the prospect of the Trump administra..
Indian LNG imports decreased y/y for the first time since July 2017 in February, falling by a modest 1% to 1.59 Mt (2.11 bcm). Domestic gas production negated the decline, rising by 2% y/y to 2.48 bcm to keep total available supplies flat y/y. Reported delivered LNG prices did slide, with spot ca..
Fundamentals is our monthly review of global oil data, this is the March edition.Compared to our balances published last month, 2018 balances have become marginally tighter, mainly for Q1 18, while balances across Q2 18-Q4 18 are broadly unchanged. Interestingly, the Q1 18 tightening in balances..
South Korean oil demand grew by 49 thousand b/d y/y to 2.68 mb/d in February. Light ends led the way, with LPG growing (+25 thousand b/d) for the first time since June 2017, naphtha rising (+44 thousand b/d) for the 12th straight month, and gasoline demand also expanding (+5 thousand b/d). South..
Fuel oil markets have entered the long shadow of the IMO’s low-sulphur ship fuel rules. The transition to cleaner fuel will be guided by market prices. Clean product demand is set to soar (at current prices) while demand for fuel oil is set to plunge. So clean product values need to rise re..
Today’s report (week ended 16 March): EIA: -86 bcf, EA: -84 bcfThis was the first week in recent memory to see consensus expectations centre near the ultimate EIA print. Our flow model (-87 bcf) trended higher than our supply-demand model (-84 bcf). To align the supply-demand model with today’s r..
Indian oil demand surged by 0.33 mb/d to a record high of 4.66 mb/d in February. While a low base helped, demand had improved in February last year following January’s dismal performance, so the pick-up last month was more about a robust macroeconomic backdrop and government spending on infrastru..
Extract from crude oil:Crude stocks fell by 2.6 mb last week to 428.3 mb (-105 mb y/y), compared to a 6.5 mb seasonal build. Year-to-date builds of just 7.2 mb are well below the five-year average build of over 40 mb. Last week’s decline was driven by a 3.7 mb w/w draw to 233 mb in PADD 3,..
Aggregate Norwegian natural gas production edged up by a small 70 mcm (1%) y/y to 10.2 bcm in February. Unplanned outages hampered stronger flows during an exceptionally cold month.Total Norwegian pipeline flows to Europe averaged just above 0.33 bcm/d last month, up by about 20 mcm/d (7%) y/y. A..
Norwegian liquids production fell m/m by 82 thousand b/d to 1.94 mb/d in February, lower y/y by 63 thousand b/d and weaker than our estimates. Underlying base declines, which have averaged 9% since July 2017, were the likely driver, pushing output lower y/y in seven of the past eight months. The..
Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 16 Mar) – EA Final Estimate: -84 bcfOur projection for Thursday’s EIA report is for a withdrawal of 84 bcf. Winter Storm Skylar, the third Nor’easter of 2018, hammered the region on 13 March and kept gas-weighted heating degree days (GWHDDs) unchanged w/w after W..
LNG imports into Japan grew by 0.5 Mt y/y to 8.29 Mt in February, as sustained below-average temperatures in January and February supported higher power generation and gas use. We expected LNG imports to be strong, but February takes were still 0.3 Mt above our expectations.February saw a continu..
European oil demand was marginally lower y/y, by 13 thousand b/d, at 14.63 mb/d in January, the first decline since April 2017 when a late Easter reduced industrial activity. The declines were unsurprisingly driven by heating fuels, with diesel lower by 14 thousand b/d y/y and fuel oil by 48 thou..