Please note that, owing to the Thanksgiving holiday, there will be no Macro Digest next week. When positions are being liquidated, there is no such thing as nuance. And this week the oil market was capitulating, as evidenced by the three-standard deviation jump in volatility, one of the larg..
While the NE Asian LNG market continues to wait for the proper onset of winter, some wintery weather in North America led to high volatility at Henry Hub. Jan-19 Henry Hub closed Thursday up by some 0.5 $/mmbtu w/w at 4.1 $/mmbtu, but this is still low-priced gas in the global context. Even accou..
We are delighted to present our new North America Monthly, which provides a brief outlook for the North American gas market.This withdrawal season we expect LNG exports out of the US to increase by 2.7 Mt y/y to 10.7 Mt, resulting in a by 1.4 bcf/d (40 mcm/d) y/y rise in feedgas demand. Both numb..
Within this report you will be able to review the latest figures published by Baker Hughes by oil and gas shale plays in the US and by province in Canada.Fig 1: US total rig countFig 2: Major shale plays oil rig countOilGasTotal16 Nov 188881941,082w/w chg.2 ↑(1) ↓1 ↑y/y chg.150 ↑17 ↑167 ↑9 Nov 18..
Within this report you will be able to review the latest figures published by Baker Hughes by gas shale plays in the US and by province in Canada.Fig 1: US total rig countFig 2: Appalachian shale plays gas rig countGasOilTotal16 Nov 181948881,082w/w chg.(1) ↓2 ↑1 ↑y/y chg.17 ↑150 ↑167 ↑9 Nov 1819..
Though cold weather on the US East Coast and a slower-than-expected return from works for Exxon’s Rotterdam refinery has exacerbated short-term tightness in Atlantic basin diesel markets, they are due for a pause. December is a slow demand period, and arb flows from the US and Asia to Europe are..
Next week's Panorama will be released on Wednesday 21 November, due to the Thanksgiving holidayToday’s report (week ended 9 Nov): EIA: +39 bcf, EA: +39 bcfToday’s EIA print — while in line with our forecast — showed a wide divergence between estimates, especially between S&D and flow models,..
Extract from crude oil:Due to this massive flow change into Cushing (including higher flows on Pony Express of close to 0.38 mb/d due to a Q4 18 expansion of 80 thousand b/d), we have revised our November and December forecasts. We now expect builds of 4.4 mb and 0.6 mb respectively for November..
Australian oil product demand rose in September, by 16 thousand b/d y/y to 1.03 mb/d, with y/y growth slowing because of high oil prices, continuing drought conditions and a weaker Australian dollar. Diesel demand rose by 31 thousand b/d y/y in September, to 0.49 mb/d, as Australia’s iron o..
A change in weather forecasts in mid-November altered expectations for the second half of this month, with Europe promised its first taste of colder than normal winter weather. The first half of November was mild, contributing to y/y demand reductions in res-com, so storage inventories improved...
Over the past two weeks the key agency forecasts have been published. EIA published STEO on 6 November, OPEC its MOMR yesterday and the IEA published OMR this morning.A much stronger-than-expected increase in US production in August resulted in all agencies extrapolating that growth profile throu..
We estimate that OPEC production went up m/m by 70 thousand b/d to 32.65 mb/d in October, down y/y by 0.21 mb/d. Nevertheless, compliance with the OPEC/non-OPEC deal rose to 152% (the highest level since May), from 149% in September. Compliance excluding Venezuela fell to 77% in October, from 87%..
Please note that users licensed for the data service can access our South Korean gas balances, power by source and nuclear outages data.Both South Korean res-com and power sector gas demand were stronger y/y in October, but LNG imports were a considerable 1.0 Mt (37%) higher y/y at 3.8 Mt, helpin..
Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 9 Nov) – EA Final Estimate: +39 bcfWe forecast Thursday’s EIA report will show an injection of 39 bcf. Cold temperatures continued to drive demand higher, as a 15% w/w increase in gas-weighted HDDs (GWHDDs) boosted res-com demand by 2.8 bcf/d w/w. A drop in total..
A narrowing of the JKM-TTF spread in recent months has led to a six-year high in European LNG imports—5.5 bcm in October (+1.5 bcm y/y)—and there are no signs of any let up in November. The markets of Northeast Asia purchased all their LNG needs for a seasonally normal winter during the summer, w..