Risk assets tumbled early in the week, causing traders to become a bit defensive on risk appetite, although it wasn’t completely obvious what was causing this angst. Some pointed to the divergence between the HY market and stocks—historically when junk bonds and equities have diverged, it has ten..
Next week's US Rig Report will be released on Wednesday 22 November, due to the Thanksgiving holiday.Within this report you will be able to review the latest figures published by Baker Hughes for the most important gas shale plays in the US.Fig 1: US total rig countFig 2: Appalachian shale plays..
Over the past few weeks, gasoil timespreads have slumped into contango at the front while remaining firmly in backwardation across most of Q1 18. Part of this divergence can be attributed to over-zealous positioning, but maintenance deferrals, following the spike in margins after Hurricane Harvey..
Today’s report (week ended 10 Nov): EIA: -18 bcf, EA: -16 bcfToday’s report showed an 18 bcf withdrawal, which was slightly higher than both our forecast of 16 bcf and the consensus estimate of 15 bcf, but in line with the whispered number.We have made a 0.3 bcf/d upward adjustment to res-com and..
In this Insight, we evaluate the Q3 17 results for a broad sample of US producers, which has been extended to now include 51 firms. Our dataset looks at over 33 bcf/d of production in the US, allowing us to compile a more representative snapshot of activity in the upstream sector. Our review of 2..
Since the start of 2016, global coal benchmarks have been on a two-year upward run. Front-month coal has traded up towards the 100 $/t mark and Cif ARA has stayed above 80 $/t for the last four months, trading as high as 95 $/t.The key to the changing fortunes of the coal market in 2016 was a cha..
Extract from crude oil:A softer set of weekly statistics last week saw US total commercial stocks build by 2.8 mb, the first build in nine weeks, but that hardly changes the overall trajectory, with the cumulative draw in total inventories amounting to 55.2 mb in the past eight weeks. Crude stock..
Next week's North American Storage Update will be released on Tuesday 21 November, due to the Thanksgiving holiday.Thursday’s EIA report (week ended 10 Nov) – EA Final Estimate: -16 bcfWe forecast tomorrow’s EIA report will show the first net withdrawal of this heating season, at 16 bcf. Although..
South Korean LNG imports were down by 0.49 Mt (15%) y/y at 2.76 Mt last month. Unseasonably cool weather and high imports in September have helped preserve stocks, leading the country to slow imports during the mild shoulder month of October.Imports of Qatari cargoes fell by a chunky 0.32 Mt (27%..
Mild weather cut LDZ gas demand and high wind generation curbed power sector gas demand across most of Europe in October. Stronger renewable generation coupled with above-average temperatures shrank total gas demand in the UK and Italy by a hefty 0.65 bcm (11%) y/y and 0.40 bcm (7%) y/y, respecti..
Australian oil demand grew by 56 thousand b/d y/y to 1.02 mb/d in September, marking a fifth straight month of y/y growth surpassing 5%. Diesel demand grew by 49 thousand b/d y/y, accounting for 87% of total demand growth. Diesel demand started to grow strongly from November 2016 onwards, support..
We estimate that OPEC production fell m/m by 0.14 mb/d to 32.58 mb/d in October, lower y/y by 0.43 mb/d due to the high base in Q4 16. This raised compliance with the OPEC/non-OPEC production deal to 118%, the highest level since May.Iraq led the declines, with output lower m/m by 0.11 mb/d at 4...
This week the key agency forecasts have been published. EIA published STEO last week, OPEC published MOMR yesterday, and the IEA published its OMR this morning.Demand was the main source of discrepancy across the key agency forecasts this month. Downside revisions to demand pulled both the IEA an..
A very warm October has left EU gas stocks at the start of November at 88.2 bcm, only 3.2 bcm down y/y. This level of storage fullness leaves little reason for supply concern this winter under most weather scenarios. Most of the y/y gap was in France (down by 2.0 bcm y/y). An additional 1.2 bcm s..
Prompt gas prices should continue to find support this week from a combination of Norwegian production constraints and forecasts for another several days of unseasonable cold. Last week, similar dynamics pushed the TTF D+1 to average 19.32 €/MWh, up sharply from 18.10 €/MWh in the week..