Energy Aspects Insights & News

How satellite data flagged Pluto LNG’s early start-up

Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:21:14 GMT

When Woodside published its second-quarter 2026 report, it confirmed calls Energy Aspects had already made earlier: commissioning at the 5 Mtpa Pluto Train 2 LNG project is accelerating, with first LNG on track for Q4 26 (December 2026 in our forecast). We had been tracking the same milestones in near real time, using satellite thermal imagery and maritime data.

How we track commissioning

Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Energy Aspects

Pluto LNG is the anchor of Woodside’s Western Australian LNG portfolio, and Train 2 is the first new liquefaction capacity to come online alongside the broader Scarborough development. Its start-up date has moved through several rounds of revision as commissioning has progressed, making the sequence a useful test of how far operational data can substitute for waiting on scheduled disclosures.

Energy Aspects thermal image of Pluto LNG

We monitor LNG facility commissioning primarily through satellite thermal imagery, which picks up the heat signatures associated with turbine start-up, flaring and process heating well before a company confirms progress in a scheduled announcement.

Combined with maritime tracking of vessel positioning and loadings, this gives us a rolling, facility-level view of where a project sits in its commissioning sequence.

Source: ESA, Energy Aspects

Track global LNG supply disruptions, train-level activity and maintenance risk with near real-time alerts, historical data and forward-looking analysis

What we saw before the report landed

Our first signal came in late June, when thermal data picked up a clear heat signature on Pluto Train 2’s gas-fired power turbine, indicating early commissioning activity had begun. This followed a 28-day shutdown of Train 1 in May, during which the unit underwent compatibility upgrades to process Scarborough feedgas, the new supply source for the facility.

By mid-July, flaring intensity at the offshore floating production unit (FPU) had increased sharply, and we later detected a new heat signature at the onshore processing unit, consistent with gas being introduced for testing. Market soundings pointed to verification checks already underway on Train 2. Taken together, the power generation checks, the flaring, and the processing-unit activity told a consistent story of commissioning moving through its final stages.

Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Energy Aspects

Reading the signals against a known analogue

We used the roughly four-month interval between heavy flaring and first LNG exports at the Darwin LNG–Barossa project as a guide for timing Pluto Train 2’s own start-up. On that basis, we brought forward our first-LNG forecast for Train 2 to December 2026, from January 2027, adding 0.3 Mt of LNG supply to our winter 2026–27 balance and marginally reducing Asia’s call on Atlantic basin cargoes over the December–January peak heating period.

Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Energy Aspects

What Woodside’s report confirmed

Woodside’s second-quarter 2026 report, published on 29 July 2026, corroborated each stage of the commissioning sequence we had tracked independently. The Scarborough Energy Project, including Pluto Train 2, was 98% complete at the end of the quarter (excluding Pluto Train 1 modifications), with all upstream infrastructure already in place. Subsequent to the reporting period, the FPU reached ready-for-start-up status and achieved first gas from the Scarborough reservoir, while the trunkline also reached ready-for-start-up status, allowing pressurisation from the FPU through to the onshore plant to begin. At the Train 2 site, the gas turbine generator completed synchronisation with the Pluto power grid, and mechanical runs were completed on three of the six liquefaction compressors. Woodside confirmed the first LNG cargo remains on track for Q4 26, consistent with our forecast.

“The successful completion of the Pluto planned maintenance during the quarter marked a key milestone in preparing for Pluto Train 2 integration and processing of Scarborough gas,” Woodside chief executive Liz Westcott said alongside the results.

Why the timing matters

A one-month shift in a single train’s start-up date changes the volume of Atlantic basin cargoes Asia needs during the December–January peak heating period, with a knock-on effect on the spread between the JKM and TTF benchmarks. Catching that shift as it happens, rather than waiting for the next quarterly update, is what our commissioning-tracking approach is built to do.

This case also illustrates why we treat commissioning tracking as a distinct discipline from steady-state supply monitoring. A project moving through start-up passes through several observable stages — power generation, flaring, compressor testing — before it loads its first cargo , and each stage carries information about how close the facility is to first exports. Reading those stages consistently, across many projects, is what let us move the Pluto Train 2 timeline a month earlier than our prior forecast with reasonable confidence.

The shift also feeds into a broader picture for Asian winter LNG demand. Northeast Asian buyers have already been contending with a slower-than-expected recovery in Middle East LNG export capacity this year, and any change to non-Middle Eastern supply, however small, affects how much of that gap the Atlantic basin needs to fill. Tracking Pluto Train 2’s commissioning closely therefore has a direct read-through to how tight the winter balance looks in practice.

Our Global LNG service tracks commissioning, loadings and outages in near real time using satellite imagery, maritime data and ground-level sourcing across the world’s LNG portfolio. To see these signals as they develop, request a trial of our LNG intelligence service here.

LNG project timelines will keep shifting on short notice, and companies’ own disclosures often confirm progress only after the fact.

EU electrification plan won't lift power demand yet

Mon, 27 Jul 2026 11:17:22 GMT

The European Commission published its Electrification Action Plan on 17 July, setting out how it wants electricity to displace gas across European industry , buildings and transport. At Energy Aspects, we have assessed what the plan means for our power-load forecasts , and we do not think it changes much before 2030. Most of its measures are built to shape demand growth in the 2030s, not before it, with the biggest near-term scope for change sitting in industry rather than in homes.

The plan's indicative target is to raise electricity's share of final energy consumption to 46% by 2040, up from around 23% today. The Commission wants that target written into EU law through its Energy Union package, due to be presented in the fourth quarter of 2026, which means the legislative process runs well into 2027. That leaves member states limited time before 2030 to turn the plan's proposals for industry, buildings and transport into concrete measures, beyond what is already enforced or under consideration.

Industry holds the biggest lever, but takes years to pull

The plan's core mechanism is a lower electricity-to-gas price ratio, meant to make heat pumps, electric vehicles, renewables and small modular reactors more competitive against gas. For industry, the target is a ratio of no more than 2.0 by 2030 . In five of the six EU markets we track in granular detail, the ratio still sits above that level, with Germany and the Netherlands highest at 2.93 and Belgium, Italy and Spain around 2.5 to 2.6 . The CISAF rules already available to EU member states, and used by Germany and Italy, let member states cut industrial power prices for up to three years until the end of 2030, which should bring their ratios down slightly from 2026.

Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Energy Aspects

Difference of electricity-to-gas price ratio for industry vs EU target, percentage points

We already forecast industrial electrification, including hydrogen projects, electric arc furnaces and new semiconductor and battery manufacturing sites, to add 4.9 TWh of power consumption in 2027, rising to 16.8 TWh by 2030. These are projects we have high confidence will be commissioned regardless of the plan. Proposed changes to the EU Emissions Trading System, also presented on 17 July , do not move the picture much before 2030 either: our EUA price forecast for 2027-30 has only shifted modestly, with the larger impact landing after 2030.

Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Energy Aspects

Buildings are already on our forecast trajectory

Faster heat-pump adoption sits at the centre of the plan's approach to buildings, and here our base case is already close to where the Commission wants to go. We forecast residential heat pumps across our six EU markets reaching 20 million by 2030, up from 9.9 million in 2025, with installations more than doubling in Germany, Italy, Spain and the Netherlands, markets where heat pumps do not yet cover a large share of residential heating. That trajectory already meets 86% of the plan's combined target across those markets, which we see as realistic and ambitious rather than something the plan itself needs to unlock.

Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Energy Aspects

Electricity-to-gas price ratio for household vs EU 2030 target

The household side of the ratio target, a maximum of 2.5, is one most of our markets have already reached or are close to. Belgium, Germany and Spain were still above that level in 2025, but all three have measures under way to close the gap. In Belgium, the Flemish government plans tax changes from 2028 that would cut electricity bills for a typical household by €80/MWh while raising gas bills for higher-consuming households by the same amount; the Flemish region accounts for around 50-60% of total Belgian electricity demand. German electricity grid fees fell by €38/MWh y/y in 2026, backed by €6.5 billion of government funding for grid expansion between 2026 and 2029.

Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Energy Aspects

Spain is phasing down a tax on power generators from 7% to 5% in the second half of 2026 and to 3% in 2027, before removing it entirely from 2028. France cut VAT on air-to-air heat pumps to 5.5% from 20% on 18 July, and our base case already factors in measures like these.

Transport demand was already priced in

The plan also encourages member states to cut VAT on electric vehicles and speed up grid access for new charging points, alongside dynamic electricity tariffs to encourage smart charging. We forecast EVs to add 66.8 TWh to power load across our six EU markets, up from around 27 TWh in 2026, built from separate load profiles for smart home charging, unmanaged home charging and workplace or public charging. Because our base case already assumes strong EV adoption, and because the plan's measures will take time to become binding policy, we do not see much room for EV demand to run materially ahead of what we already forecast.

Source: Eurostat, European Commission, Energy Aspects

What this means for the load-growth outlook

None of this means electrification stalls, only that the acceleration the Commission wants lands later than the plan's headlines suggest, largely once the Energy Union package clears negotiation and member states have time to turn targets into rules. Through 2030, our base case already captures most of what a plan like this can realistically add, with industry rather than buildings or transport offering the most room for upward revision.

Our Europe Power service tracks these policy shifts alongside granular, market-by-market demand modelling across the EU's largest power markets. Request a trial to see the full detail behind our forecasts.

Policy timelines like this will keep shifting as the Energy Union package moves through negotiation, shifting the load-growth math with each revision.

Weekly market round up - 21 July 2026

Thu, 23 Jul 2026 11:21:25 GMT

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EU ETS Reform 2026: What the new LRF really means for carbon costs

Thu, 23 Jul 2026 10:58:04 GMT

The Commission's proposal: Opening bid, not final word

On Friday, 17 July, the European Commission released its long-anticipated EU ETS review proposal. The Commission's proposal for EU ETS reform will represent the least bearish iteration of the policy changes, but we expect it to be watered down through the European Parliament and Council's during EU’s legislative process.

The shift towards prioritising competitiveness in both institutions, driven by post-2024 election dynamics and broader concerns over industrial resilience, will ensure market balances after the final reform emerge significantly softer than the Commission's initial starting point.

Why the soft LRF matters more than headlines suggest

The Linear Reduction Factor (LRF)—the annual rate at which the total emissions cap shrinks—is one of the key headlines in the proposal. The proposed 3.7% LRF for 2031–35 and 1.7% LRF from 2036–40 mean balances are moderately tighter for the first half of the next decade, but there are more volumes left at the back end. The ETS cap only goes to zero in 2046 with these parameters.

A key change to Energy Aspects' base case is the adoption of the proposed post-2030 linear reduction factor, which adds back around 275 Mt to total supply over 2031–40 compared to our previous 3.4% LRF.

EA views on ETS elements

Source: Energy Aspects

Source: European Commission, Energy Aspects

MSR removals and additions, Mt

Carbon price implications

Our revised carbon price forecast of €124/t for 2031–35 (down from €136/t) largely reflects the MSR adding in volumes faster than under previous rules. For 2027–30, we now average €95/t compared to our previous base case of €97/t.

But the political reality matters more than headlines. There are 10 central and southern member states (a blocking minority) pushing for an even greater softening of the LRF to only have the EU ETS cap go to zero in 2050. The Commission's proposal is genuinely the ceiling for ambition—not the floor.

Free allocation: The hidden industrial win

Whilst the LRF grabbed headlines, free allocation—how companies receive allowances without paying for them—represents the real cost story for industry. The proposals leave it at 15% until 2038. We expect these could be further weakened through the legislative process.

A delayed phaseout of free allocation is likely to happen, as this has broad support across both the Parliament and Council as a means of easing the industrial cost burden.

However, there's a significant conditionality attached. Companies must prove they are executing energy efficiency audits and formal "Climate Transition Plans" to receive free allocations and will need to undertake actual green investment to receive all of their free allocation. This represents a substantial shift—free allocation is now conditional on demonstrated decarbonisation commitment.

MSR reforms: Supply injection dynamics

The Market Stability Reserve (MSR) is the EU ETS's shock absorber. The MSR proposals make it more likely to add supply back to auctions earlier than under previous balances. The most important change is the total number of allowances in circulation, the key parameter deteriming how the MSR works, is to be considerably lowered. This will mean the MSR starts adding back allowances far faster. The removal of the invalidation factor will also mean the MSR can put back more allowances into auctions over a longer timeframe, helping further loosen the market. Somewhat countering that loosening is the proposal to annually decrease the upper and lower thresholds. A 4% decrease starting in 2028 would mean the 2035 upper threshold is 566 Mt and lower threshold is 272 Mt, with a lower buffer of 300 Mt.

MSR reform appears certain, with appetite to overhaul how the mechanism absorbs surplus allowances and adds volume back to auctions growing.

Innovation booster and the Innovation Decarbonisation Bank (IDB) - impacts on supply

The market was anticipating the investment booster and IDB proposals, and the proposals showed that some 400 Mt of EUAs could be reserved for helping finance investment for industrial decarbonisation projects being developed out to 2030. Another 400 Mt of EUAs would be also available in 2031-2040.

While that is considerable volume, the proposed rules suggest very little of those EUA will be available to the market by the end of 2030 and not all of them by 2040. Still, we think these proposals should help stimulate some decarbonisation investment in the EU.

International offsets and carbon removals

The proposal allows up to 2% of the cap to be used for eligible international offsets in 2036–40. The further addition of carbon removals credits is supposed to come in from 2031. The proposals are to increase the cap by 250 Mt and use revenue from that to have the Commission purchase carbon removals.

Carbon removal costs are well above what the EU price is now, and removals still aren't really affordable. Only around 10 Mt of real additional subsidy is likely in 2031–35. The real opportunity lies in electrification and grid infrastructure, supported by robust governance integrating planning, financing, cooperation, and progress monitoring.

The political road ahead: Why this proposal will only soften further

The European Commission's proposal for EU ETS reform will represent the least bearish iteration of the policy changes, but we expect it to be watered down through the European Parliament and Council's legislative process.

The reform will adjust and recalibrate the existing framework—softening the LRF, overhauling the MSR, delaying free allocation phaseout and folding in removals and the waste sector—rather than fundamentally reshaping it.

The European Parliament's and Council’s renewed focus on competitiveness following the 2024 elections is reshaping the trajectory of EU ETS reform. We expect the legislatures versions of the proposals will aim to soften the proposal further.

Key political risks to monitor

The bottom line: Expect further softening

Energy Aspects' key takeaway: The Commission has offered some modest weakening of the legislation so that climate policy is broadly retained while accommodating concerns over industrial competitiveness. We have largely adopted the European Commission proposals as our new base case, with a few exceptions, even though we recognise there will be plenty of further changes along the legislative path.

The more radical measures such as a pause to ETS1 and hard price cap unlikely to survive.

This is the start of a long legislative road. Market participants should position for the Commission's proposal to soften further—not tighten.

EU ETS review: Breaking down the headlines

Watch the webinar on-demand

Date: 21 July 2026

Speakers: Jahn Ivar Olsen
(Head of Environmental Products), Trevor Sikorski
(Head of Natural Gas and Emissions)

Duration: ~52 minutes

Description: Energy Aspects hosted a live broadcast on 21 July 2026, breaking down the Commission's proposals in real-time detail with analysis of price forecasts, political positioning, and actionable insights for policy analysts, traders, and renewable energy investors.

EU ETS review - Breaking down the headlines

Wed, 22 Jul 2026 08:57:07 GMT

EU ETS review: pragmatic Commission proposal softens LRF, introduces conditional free allocation, redesigns investment booster.

Webinar on-demand: EU ETS review - Breaking down the headlines

Wed, 22 Jul 2026 07:41:27 GMT

The European Commission released its long-anticipated review of the EU Emissions Trading System on 14 June 2026. Although the EUA market took strength from the announcement, prices have remained anchored around the €80/tonne level.

This webinar examines the policy proposals in detail, exploring the political dynamics that will reshape them during the legislative process, the key technical changes to the LRF and MSR, and what traders and analysts should expect through H2 2026 and into 2027.

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What was covered in the webinar:

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Energy Aspects’ Carbon Emissions Intelligence brings together analysis and data across compliance carbon markets and offsets in one integrated offering. Our coverage helps users track policy developments, supply and demand balances, price formation, and market structure across the EU ETS, UK ETS, North American compliance markets, and the voluntary carbon market.

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Mon, 20 Jul 2026 10:01:07 GMT

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Methanol and derivatives long-term supply and demand: Q3 26 update

Thu, 16 Jul 2026 13:54:42 GMT

Written by Dr Florian Thaler , Head of Analytics and Founder of OilX

A personal reflection on the evolution from OilX to EA Analytics and what it means for energy intelligence.

Energy Aspects has updated its global supply and demand balances for methanol and its key derivatives, including formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE and MMA, through 2050. Our latest quarterly update lowers this year’s demand growth forecast and points to a Middle East supply squeeze that looks set to persist for longer than the market had hoped.

How much is global methanol demand growing in 2026?

We now expect global methanol demand to grow by 1.2% y/y in 2026, a downgrade from the 2.5% y/y growth we had projected in our Q2 26 balances. Demand has broadly performed as we expected three months ago: Chinese consumption for methanol-to-olefins (MTO) and several major traditional derivatives is growing close to the country’s target range of 4.5–5.0% GDP growth for 2026. Scarcity of petrochemical feedstocks in Northeast Asia, excluding China, and in India has weighed on demand there, while allowing integrated China MTO (CTO) units to run at high rates and lifting demand for Chinese methanol production. We estimate global methanol demand at 114.5 Mt in 2026, accelerating to a 2.4% CAGR through 2030 to reach 126.7 Mt, led by growth in Asia.

Why is China’s MTO complex the key swing factor in this outlook?

China’s MTO complex remains the single biggest swing factor for global methanol demand and trade. The country’s around 45% domestic demand share via MTO/CTO, combined with a still-large import requirement of about 15 Mt, makes Chinese import policy and pricing a key driver of trade flows. Despite the US–Iran conflict and the resulting sharp reduction in Middle Eastern methanol exports to China, increased domestic production and imports from Russia and South America helped satisfy Chinese demand through the first half of the year.

Source: Energy Aspects

Global methanol supply and demand and operating rate, Mt (LHS), % (RHS)

What is happening to Middle Eastern methanol supply?

The US–Iran memorandum of understanding, signed in mid-June, briefly allowed a glut of stranded Middle Eastern methanol to reach China, India and other destinations, appearing to resume previous trade patterns. But we continue to expect considerable limitations in Middle Eastern supply until there is a lasting resolution to Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Under this environment, non-integrated Chinese MTO units will idle or run at low rates, while CTO units continue operating at high, if somewhat reduced, rates as coal prices rise and demand softens approaching year-end. Middle Eastern methanol supply will remain constrained through Q3 26, and potentially longer, with all regional capacity and supporting infrastructure at risk of disruption until the Iran conflict is resolved.

How are demand trends shaping up in Europe and North America?

We have revised down our European methanol demand growth forecast, and now expect less than 1% y/y growth in 2026, as higher inflation and elevated energy and methanol costs weigh on consumption in the second half of the year. In North America, we still expect demand to increase moderately, particularly from derivatives used in domestic oil and gas production. However, previous expectations of higher export demand for acetic acid , MTBE and biodiesel, where supply elsewhere is constrained by the Middle East conflict, have not fully materialised, due to production issues and limited demand for these products. Persistent inflationary pressure on raw material costs, including methanol itself, is also likely to limit North American demand growth in the second half of the year.

What does the outlook look like beyond 2026?

Methanol capacity expansions will slow significantly through 2030, with most additions concentrated in China, via integrated CTO, and the Middle East. We continue to expect tightening natural gas supply across major producing regions to constrain global capacity further, starting with the announced idling of Methanex’s 860 ktpa Titan unit in Trinidad and Tobago by end-Q3 26. Even so, recent Middle East developments increase the likelihood of at least one new world-scale methanol project being built by the end of the decade, with further longer-term additions expected in North America, albeit restricted by inflated construction costs. We expect previous demand trends to return by 2027 as global supply chains rebalance between Q4 26 and Q1 27, assuming Strait of Hormuz disruptions begin to ease by late Q3 26 and no significant unplanned production outages arise. Overall, our supply and demand outlook through 2030 continues to support methanol pricing moving towards sustained reinvestment levels, with any further reduction in Middle East supply likely to accelerate that pace.

The evolution from OilX to EA Analytics isn't an ending. It's the beginning.

From OilX to EA Analytics: The evolution of real-time energy intelligence

Tue, 07 Jul 2026 09:52:49 GMT

Written by Dr Florian Thaler , Head of Analytics and Founder of OilX

A personal reflection on the evolution from OilX to EA Analytics and what it means for energy intelligence.

When we started OilX, we had one singular obsession - answering the question that kept oil traders awake at night. "What's happening in the oil market right now?"

It sounds simple, but it wasn't. For decades, traders relied on lagging indicators like weekly inventory reports, port observations, and broker rumours. By the time you knew something was happening, the market had already moved. We saw an opportunity to collapse that information lag using satellite imagery, maritime and mobility data to measure global oil supply and demand in real time. We called it nowcasting, and it became a tool that fundamentally changed how traders approached timeseries data in oil markets.

But as we grew and our clients grew with us, we began to hear a different question. It wasn't " what's happening now? " anymore. It was " what comes next ?"

That tension between having actual real-time visibility and lacking the analytical depth to act on it set the stage for everything that followed.

The limits of a point solution

I'm proud of what OilX accomplished as an independent business. We pioneered nowcasting in energy markets , built a credible user base of sophisticated traders and analysts and proved that satellite-derived intelligence could be operationalised at scale in quantamental models. But I'll be honest, we hit a ceiling.

We were brilliant at measurement. We could tell you, down to the barrel, what was flowing through a pipeline or stacked on a tanker. Our data was exceptional, but it existed in isolation, a powerful torch illuminating only a narrow corridor of the energy market.

We also had a geographical and commodity problem. Everything we'd built was optimised for oil. Expanding that architecture to gas, LNG, power, and other energy commodities would have meant rebuilding from the ground up and we'd still lack the analytical depth to make sense of it all.

The reality of integration and building a frictionless experience

Now, if this story were purely celebratory, I'd be doing you a disservice. Integration at this scale doesn't happen without friction.

Challenge 1: Aligning ground truths

The first challenge was aligning ground truths. OilX had one source of truth built from satellite and AIS data. EA Analytics had another, built from market reporting, official statistics and expert interpretation. These didn't always agree, and reconciling them required humility from both sides. We had to ask difficult questions: Whose data is right? When they diverge, what does it tell us?

In many cases, the answer was that both were right in different ways - OilX was measuring physical flows, EA was measuring reported or transacted volumes. Understanding that distinction became critical to building credibility.

Challenge 2: Technical and organisational alignment

The second challenge was technical and organisational. Building an API that seamlessly serves historical time-series data, real-time nowcasting feeds, and quantitative forecasts to the same client wasn't just an engineering problem, it required alignment across teams with different working cultures and priorities. Data engineers had to work closely with research analysts. Product teams had to balance the needs of traders (who wanted speed) with the needs of strategists (who wanted depth). It took time, honest conversations, and a genuine commitment to get the user experience right.

Where the friction dissolves

But here's what I'm genuinely excited about: we did it. Our EA intelligence platform now allows a client to pivot seamlessly from an analyst's note on geopolitical risk , to a real-time dashboard showing the physical impact of that risk, to a quantitative model forecasting the market consequence. That workflow used to require five different tools and two hours of manual integration. Now it's frictionless.

What we've built

EA Analytics isn't just about oil anymore. The nowcasting methodology we pioneered has been refined and applied across gas, LNG and power markets. The architecture is consistent with the same underlying principles, different domain expertise. Clients managing portfolio risk across multiple commodities now get methodological consistency alongside commodity-specific depth. That matters more than people realise.

The platform has also changed how we think about credibility. In energy markets, opinion is cheap. Data is cheaper. But measurement-backed analysis in the form of real-time observation grounded in satellite truth, connected to expert interpretation is rare and valuable.

What excites us now

Looking forward, the next chapter is about deepening our measurement capabilities through the integration of Kayrros across the platform . Kayrros brings unprecedented scale in satellite-derived measurements. We're talking about multiple data streams covering oil terminals, gas plants, power generation and even emissions. The volume of earth observation data we can now ingest, process, and activate at scale is transformative.

But data at scale without intelligence remains just noise. That's where AI comes in. We're actively exploring how advanced machine learning models can unlock patterns in our proprietary satellite datasets that were previously invisible. Imagine identifying supply constraints before they hit the market. Imagine quantifying the real-time impact of renewable transition on power markets. Imagine early warning systems for commodity shocks built on measured reality, not speculation.

This isn't science fiction. The infrastructure is in place. The data is there. The expertise exists across our teams. The work now is in execution, responsibly and rigorously ensuring that speed and innovation does not compromise credibility.

A personal reflection

Sometimes I think back to those early OilX days, when we were a small team convinced that satellite imagery could revolutionise energy markets. We were right about the potential, but incomplete in our vision. We needed partners who understood that nowcasting was the foundation, not the destination.

EA saw that from day one. They didn't acquire OilX to own our nowcasting; they acquired us to accelerate the vision of a unified intelligence platform. That distinction matters. It's why this integration has felt genuine and not like a consolidation, but like a convergence.

For clients and the market at large, it means something concrete: there's now a place where real-time energy intelligence meets expert analysis meets quantitative rigour. One platform. One source of truth. One less reason to toggle between five different windows looking for the signal in the noise.

The convergence

That's when Energy Aspects (EA) approached us with a proposition that made immediate sense. EA had built something remarkable: years of expert research, proprietary methodologies for forecasting and deep relationships across the global energy sector. But they lacked what we had, namely real-time data infrastructure and a framework for nowcasting that could anchor their forward analysis in measured reality.

The conversation was refreshingly candid. Both sides saw the same destination, a unified platform where traders and analysts could access validated historical data, real-time measurement of current market dynamics and expert-backed forecasts - all seamlessly integrated, all in one place. EA needed our nowcasting muscles. We needed their analytical depth and commodity breadth. It wasn't a merger born from overlap; it was completion.

It is an entire proprietary intelligence layer powered by multiple types of satellite intelligence, machine learning, and proprietary algorithms. The vision became tangible: real-time feeds enriched with expert interpretation, anchored in satellite-verified ground truth and connected to forward-looking analysis. All in one ecosystem.

The evolution from OilX to EA Analytics isn't an ending. It's the beginning.

Qatar LNG: why Hormuz recovery will be slow and uneven

Fri, 03 Jul 2026 10:36:48 GMT

Qatar’s LNG recovery: why shipping risk, not liquefaction, sets the pace

JKM–TTF spreads, LNG freight diffs, $/MMBtu

Note: Freight diffs are the increases in freight costs to send cargoes to Northeast Asia instead of Europe

The signing of the US–Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU) on 14 June prompted a sharp market reaction. TTF prices fell and traders began pricing a relatively swift resumption of Qatari LNG exports, with the forward curve suggesting the worst of the supply shock was over. We did not share that assessment, and subsequent events have reinforced our view that the recovery of transit through the Strait of Hormuz will be gradual and stop-start.

Source: ICE, CME, Fearnleys, Argus Media Group, Energy Aspects

The bottleneck is not Ras Laffan

The key misunderstanding in the market has been treating this as primarily a liquefaction problem. Our data show approximately 2.1 Mt of liquefaction capacity currently online at Ras Laffan, with around 10 ballast LNG carriers anchored nearby with an aggregate loading capacity exceeding 1 Mt. The physical infrastructure to load and despatch cargoes exists. The constraint is getting those cargoes through the Strait of Hormuz.

QatarEnergy has been notifying buyers that deliveries could ramp up rapidly, with initial indications of allocations broadly around 50% of annual contracted quantities. That broadly aligns with our 2026 Qatari LNG export forecast of 38.7 Mt — roughly half of pre-conflict export capacity — but those notifications carry transit-related caveats. We view the MoU framework as fragile, with shipping risks reflecting a new status quo in which military pressure is used as leverage over implementation and any future settlement.

A fragile corridor, not a safe shipping lane

Events of late June illustrate why caution is warranted. Iran launched drone attacks on the cargo ship ‘Ever Lovely’ on 25 June and the crude tanker ‘Kiku’ on 27 June, targeting vessels using the Omani corridor without Iran’s approval. The US launched retaliatory strikes before both sides agreed a temporary halt. Two LNG carriers, ‘Gaslog Shanghai’ and ‘Umm Slal’, reversed course after initially heading towards the Strait.

The diplomatic process has also slowed. Plans to resume talks in Switzerland stalled over the weekend, with the US and Iran now expected to hold only indirect technical discussions in Doha. Iran will continue to use its leverage over the waterway to shape ongoing diplomacy. The Omani corridor remains a temporary workaround; it is not a functioning replacement for the main commercial shipping lane.

Asia is restocking, but the signals are mixed

A slow recovery in Qatari exports matters because Asian demand for those volumes is real. Several markets ran down storage and deferred industrial demand during the initial months of the conflict and are now in restocking mode.

What this means for Europe’s winter

Europe cannot count on Qatari LNG returning quickly to bridge the gap. We expect LNG deliveries to Europe to return to annual growth only from August, with volumes from Qatar unlikely to reach European buyers before at least early Q4 26 as initial cargoes are directed to Asian term contract holders.

Our base case has Europe filling storage to around 85.7 bcm (78%) by end-October — about 4.7 bcm lower year on year and 11.7 bcm below the five-year average. That is enough for a mild or normal winter, but falls short of what a cold one would require. Europe has limited supply-and-demand flexibility, with the coal-gas switching channel diminishing in recent years as the region phases out coal, leaving gas to absorb most of any cold-weather demand shock.

The El Niño weather pattern poses a further upside risk to TTF prices in Q3 26 : stronger cooling demand across Asia would intensify competition for Atlantic basin cargoes and could push prompt TTF prices above €45.00/MWh and further challenge the pace of the stockbuild.

The divergence between diplomatic headlines and physical market reality is likely to persist through the injection season and into winter.

Our Global LNG service tracks Qatari export forecasts, shipping constraints, Asian demand balances and European storage trajectories on a weekly basis, providing the granular picture needed to navigate a market shaped more by transit diplomacy than by liquefaction capacity.

Low stocks, sky-high margins, even higher freight

Wed, 01 Jul 2026 10:47:43 GMT

Our latest analysis reveals why margins remain $7/bbl above seasonal norms and why stocks begin meaningful rebuilding mid-27, even as physical replacement of lost volumes extends to H2 28. More crucially, it shows why any fresh supply disruption poses acute upside risk that markets aren't pricing in.

See what real-time inventory tracking reveals about your risk exposure.

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Europe gas storage shortfall and TTF price outlook

Thu, 25 Jun 2026 10:51:12 GMT

Europe’s gas storage deficit: the real driver of TTF Win-26 upside

European gas prices sold off sharply in mid-June following the announcement of the US–Iran memorandum of understanding. Markets moved quickly to price in a rapid resumption of Qatari LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz and treated the diplomatic agreement as broadly resolving the risk to regional supply. We think that conclusion is premature and we expect a reversal to the TTF selloff once the market begins to reassess the pace of any reopening.

TTF vs coal–gas fuel-switch triggers, €/MWh

Source: ICE, ECB, Energy Aspects

The more important context for European gas prices over the coming winter is not the pace of Hormuz flows recovering but the state of its gas inventories by the start of the heating season. Europe entered the summer injection season in a significantly weaker position than in the last few years, and rebuilding stocks to an adequate level by 1 November will remain challenging even as Qatari supply recovers through Q3 26.

Where European storage stands

EU storage stood at 50 bcm, equivalent to 46% of capacity, on 23 June. That is 10.6 bcm below the same point last year and 15 bcm below the five-year average. The shortfall has accumulated over a summer injection season constrained by a tight LNG market and a backwardated TTF forward curve — conditions that reduce the commercial incentive for active injection.

At the pace injections have been running, Europe would reach approximately 81.9 bcm (75% of capacity) by end-October. Our base case assumes a more active injection season from here, which we forecast lifts end-October storage to 85.8 bcm (78%). Neither figure is comfortable. End-October fill of 75–78% leaves limited headroom against a cold winter, particularly as storage withdrawal rates fall sharply once inventories drop below 50% of capacity.

Germany’s situation is the most acute

Germany bears the greatest risk within this picture. The German government has a national storage target of 70% full by end-October. Germany is now on track to reach the target as THE seasonal spreads switch to a contango — but this does not resolve storage deliverability risks over winter.

Once storage falls below 50% of capacity, withdrawal rates drop sharply for physical reasons related to pressure and flow dynamics. For Germany, which sits at the centre of the Northwest European pipeline network, storage constraints translate quickly into deliverability risks for neighbouring markets. German supply stress in a cold spell does not stay within its own borders.

The government is reluctant to intervene directly through state-backed storage purchases. A more likely intermediate step would be instruments designed to make injection more economically viable. Given the scale of German injection demand, any such intervention would be a material price signal for TTF and THE prompt prices.

Why Qatari LNG will not close the gap quickly

Some of the bearish TTF move last week reflected expectations that Qatari LNG would resume quickly following the MoU announcement. We do not expect this. Hormuz traffic recovery will be gradual: mine clearance operations are under way but could take months, and the MoU assigns responsibility for this process to Iran. War-risk premiums remain elevated, P&I insurance terms require rewriting, and most vessel owners will want several weeks of incident-free transits before restoring pre-conflict deployment.

As Qatari exports resume on a gradual basis through Q3 26, initial volumes will be directed to intra-Gulf deliveries and Asian markets. European buyers are unlikely to see resumed Qatari deliveries before early Q4 26, at the earliest. Atlantic basin cargoes will continue to carry the weight of balancing the European market through the injection season.

This leaves TTF needing to price at a level that continues to attract flexible LNG cargoes away from Asian markets. Prices have partially corrected since Friday (19 June), unwinding some of the MoU-driven selloff, but price moves remain volatile amid bearish headlines. But the structural position of European storage means the case for TTF remaining elevated through Q3 26 is well-founded by the fundamentals, not merely by short-term sentiment.

The injection window is narrowing

The window for injection rates to accelerate is narrowing fast — European seasonal demand typically begins to pick up from late September, leaving little time for the storage deficit to close. The diplomatic progress following the MoU signing reduces the tail risk of an extended disruption to Hormuz flows, but it does not change the physical reality that European gas storage is running behind pace, that Qatari flows to Europe will return slowly, and that TTF prices need to be high enough to keep Atlantic cargoes flowing west.

We remain bullish on TTF near-curve contracts against the ICE forward curve.

The European gas balance over H2 2026 will be shaped by the pace of injection season recovery, the timing of Qatari LNG export recovery and the competition for cargoes between European and Asian buyers.

Our Europe Gas and Global LNG services track these dynamics in weekly detail, combining storage data, LNG flow analytics and fundamental price forecasting.

Hormuz reopens, but depleted stocks leave the oil market dangerously exposed

Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:34:58 GMT

What the excerpt of the report covers:

China's 3–4 mb/d crude import drop: why much of this is temporary, not structural.
Petrochemical stocks drawn down to tight levels, margins are already strengthening.
EA's estimated floor for Chinese runs at around 12.5 mb/d, imports need to be above 8 mb/d.
At least 80 mb of new Chinese storage capacity starting up this year.
US crude inventories (including SPR) at their lowest since 1985, with no buffers left to absorb a demand return.

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PJM sets the tone for tighter summer, while ERCOT’s longer stack suppresses forwards

Fri, 19 Jun 2026 15:12:58 GMT

Heading into summer, the two largest US power markets are diverging: PJM is tightening in the near term, while ERCOT remains loose, even as large load additions arrive across both. In PJM, strong load growth across the Dominion and AEP footprints is the driving force. Our summer balances are unchanged month on month, but cash realisations have rallied on the back of early heat. In ERCOT, weather-normalised load growth leaves the fossil call higher than last year, even as significant battery and solar additions lengthen the stack.

Sitting over PJM is RGGI, with Virginia's accession on 1 July looming despite prices falling after the June auction. Our latest North America power outlook sets out what these dynamics mean for spark spreads this summer.

PJM: load growth, heat drive cash realisations

The PJM narrative has shifted. Earlier in the year, transmission and generation outages drove cash prices; now load growth and weather are doing the work. We continue to see strong load growth in the PJM footprint, with AEP at 1.25 GW and Dominion at 0.9 GW year on year as of April, and our summer balances are unchanged month on month.

That demand strength is showing up in cash. A summer peak load record in Dominion lifted day-ahead on-peak congestion sharply, with Dominion congestion expected to support West Hub realisations through the peak summer. We lowered our NQ-26 spark forecast to $57.17/MWh on falling RGGI and gas prices , leaving us well below the market spark but still close to $10/MWh above last year's realisation.

ERCOT: longer stack, offsets higher call on fossil

ERCOT has a longer supply stack heading into summer, with roughly seven GW each of battery and solar capacity additions and about one GW of gas capacity by the end of the month.

ERCOT-N NQ on-peak spark spreads $/MWh

Note: Spark is at 7 heat rate and off HSC gas

Source: ICE, Energy Aspects

Weather-normalised load growth of about 3.3 GW pushes the fossil call higher, leaving ERCOT nominally tighter year on year. But those supply additions have pushed forward sparks to our fair value forecast, reflecting a much looser market y/y.

One point worth flagging for clients reading the official data: ERCOT's August MORA showed a 10.2 GW year-on-year rise in peak-risk-hour demand, but we think this overstates large loads’ ability to energise ahead of the summer.

RGGI: prices ease as the programme signals more supply

RGGI is the carbon overlay shaping fossil generation economics in PJM and the Northeast. Prices dropped after the 3 June auction cleared at $35/st, below the prevailing ICE level. The programme has not stood still: RGGI, Inc. followed up on its threat to add more supply by announcing the start of scoping to bring prices into line.

The tax-credit backdrop

There is a policy story running alongside the market one. A 4 July construction deadline for Safe Harbor renewable tax credits has driven a rush among solar developers, while a Department of Defense permitting freeze has stalled the wind pipeline. This will support solar capacity additions in the near term, while posing long-term downside risk for wind development.

Why this matters

For power market participants, the read into summer now diverges: PJM is tightening on strong load growth and limited new supply, with RGGI's supply path and Virginia's 1 July accession adding a moving part, while ERCOT stays loose as battery and solar additions outpace demand. Getting these dynamics right is central to positioning for the season.

This analysis draws on Energy Aspects’ Live Broadcast: 'North America gas and power outlook’ recorded 16 June 2026, featuring Mike Lawn (Global Head of Power), David Seduski (Head of North American Gas) and Brian Myers (Head of North America Power).

Energy Aspects' North American Power service tracks load growth, supply additions, pricing changes and policy across PJM, ERCOT and every major US power market.

Henry Hub is waiting on new LNG terminals

Fri, 19 Jun 2026 13:21:09 GMT

Our bal-summer Henry Hub forecast sits above the forward curve, but the bigger call is on the ceiling: with little new LNG capacity due online before H2 27, sustained prices above $3.50/MMBtu outside winter are unlikely. Strong production growth and a comfortable storage carryout reinforce a market that stays well supplied through 2027.

The call

Our view, set out in the North America gas outlook, frames the price ceiling around LNG timing. Our bal-summer Henry Hub forecast is above the forward curve, but we align with the market on the lack of sustained prices above $3.50/MMBtu until new LNG terminals come online.

The ceiling matters more than the small premium to the curve. Outside the winter months, the market lacks the demand pull to push prices materially higher until new export capacity arrives.

The rationale: production outruns demand

The balance is tilted towards oversupply, and production is the reason. We expect production flows to recover from maintenance in June, rising by 0.5 bcf/d month on month. We still expect Lower 48 output to near 113 bcf/d by year-end on Permian gains.

Lower 48 gas production, bcf/d

On the demand side, LNG is the swing factor, and the timing works against any near-term tightening. The contribution of new LNG terminals will do little to tighten 2027 balances.

However, we expect LNG feedgas demand to grow by 3.6 bcf/d y/y in 2028. In the meantime, seasonal May and early-June maintenance has cut into US feedgas demand as expected, and Golden Pass's slow commissioning has limited upside as well.

Source: EIA, Novi Labs, Inc., Energy Aspects

The outcome: storage stays above average

US LNG feedgas demand by terminal y/y, bcf/d

The supply-demand picture feeds straight into inventories. We forecast a 3.91 tcf end-October 2026 storage carryout, and production growth will keep inventories above average into H2 27. That comfortable carryout is exactly what caps the price ceiling outside the winter peaks. "Henry Hub is waiting on new LNG terminals for support."

The principal counter-balance to persistent oversupply would come from producers rather than buyers. A sustained tightening would more likely come through production discipline than a sudden surge in demand.

Source: DOE, Ventyx, Energy Aspects

Why this matters

For traders and hedgers , the call reframes where the risk sits. The near-term debate over a few cents around the curve is secondary to the structural reality that the next leg of LNG-driven demand does not arrive in force until H2 2027. Until then, production growth and a healthy storage position keep a firm lid on summer prices, with producer discipline the main mechanism for any tightening.

EA's unique value

This call combines basin-level production modelling with terminal-by-terminal LNG feedgas tracking and a weekly storage trajectory, giving clients a single, forward-looking view of where balances and prices are heading rather than a reaction to the latest print.

Energy Aspects' North American Gas service tracks Lower 48 production, LNG feedgas demand and storage trajectories against the Henry Hub forward curve.

US crude stocks at their lowest since 1985

Fri, 19 Jun 2026 09:46:49 GMT

US crude at its lowest since 1985: reading the balances across all barrels

US crude inventories drew sharply in the week ending 12 June, taking total stocks including the SPR to their lowest level since 1985. Cushing fell to under 21 mb, near operational minimums. The headline numbers are notable, but they do not stand alone. Cushing tightness looks to be solved through higher Permian inflows, while the 40 mb 10 June SPR exchange should add more supply to PADD 3, just as the international pull softens following the 17 June signing of the US–Iran memorandum of understanding. A larger-than-expected draw takes stocks to multi-decade low.

EIA data for the week ending 12 June showed total crude stocks drawing by 8.3 mb, against our revised forecast of 4.5 mb. Refinery runs exceeded our forecast, rising by 0.23 mb/d w/w to their highest level since August 2025, while waterborne imports underperformed our cargo tracking data. Both factors contributed to the larger-than-expected draw.

Cushing inventories, mb

Source: EIA, Energy Aspects

At Cushing, inventories declined by 1.6 mb to a new five-year low. PADD 2 stocks fell to their lowest level since 2014, driven by a combination of unplanned Western Canadian production outages and seasonal increases in Midwest refinery runs.

Our market soundings point to slow flow rates on the Enbridge Mainline and widespread batch advancement requests from Midwest refiners, consistent with very tight near-term supply conditions in the Midcontinent.

Why Cushing tightness is not translating into wider WTI timespreads

Despite inventory levels near operational minimums, we do not expect Cushing to drive a sustained WTI timespread rally. Low Cushing inventories attracted higher Permian inflows, improving DSW blending economics and reducing the risk of prompt NYMEX WTI tightness from a shortage of physically deliverable crude. Near-dated WTI cash roll differentials confirm that DSW availability is already improving at Cushing.

We view July Cushing balances as solved and expect the WTI–Brent spread to start reversing as the US-Iran MoU should free up more crude, reducing the international need for US barrels. The US remains the most well-supplied crude region and must discount to clear.

Products: diverging signals across gasoline, diesel and jet

Product balances for the week showed a mixed picture.

Gasoline

Gasoline drew by 0.9 mb against our forecast of a 0.3 mb stockbuild, with imports into PADDs 1 and 5 coming in below our expectations and combined product supplied and exports exceeding our forecast. A 0.2 mb/d Trainer refinery outage from 16 June, affecting multiple gasoline units and expected to last over a week, will weigh on PADD 1 production in next week’s EIA data. We are tracking PADD 1 arrivals of 0.6 mb/d for the week ending 19 June; these should broadly offset the production loss, and we anticipate a 1.3 mb US gasoline stockbuild in next week’s print.

Diesel

Diesel built by 1.0 mb against a forecast 0.6 mb draw, as exports and product supplied fell short of our estimates. PADD 1 diesel stocks remain very low, but rising HO–GO spreads are expected to cap further export loadings to Europe, limiting near-term draws.

Jet fuel

Jet saw the sharpest miss: a 1.1 mb draw against a 0.1 mb forecast. USGC regrades fell by over 12 c/gal w/w, contrary to our expectations. With the MoU announcement raising the prospect of recovering east–west flows, we expect USGC jet export demand to slow further, weighing additionally on regrades. We forecast a 0.7 mb US jet stockbuild in next week’s data.

NGLs: export headwinds and rising production point to a summer propane build

US propane/propylene stocks rose by 3.0 mb w/w to 87.4 mb, building across all PADDs and led by PADD 3. The build came on lower product supplied and weaker exports, with Asian propane flows down by nearly 0.6 mb/d w/w. Late-June cargo cancellations are running ahead of expectations, and our market soundings indicate at least eight further USGC loadings have been cancelled in July owing to elevated prompt freight rates and marginal arb economics.

The MoU is reinforcing the wait-and-see mood among Asian LPG buyers, as they anticipate lower prices with a recovery in Hormuz traffic. US propane/propylene production is set to rise, with the GCX pipeline expansion in the Permian ramping up and Energy Transfer’s Hugh Brinson gas pipeline due online in Q3 2026.

Our Crude Oil, Oil Products and LPG services track weekly supply, demand and trade flow data across all major US regions and pricing hubs, with analysis extending from the Midcontinent through to USGC export markets and international LPG flows.

Webinar on-demand: North America gas and power outlook

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 09:34:40 GMT

Webinar on-demand: North America gas and power outlook: summer outlook, PJM and ERCOT dynamics, Virginia RGGI, Permian supply, LNG demand, and US exports to Mexico.

North American Gas and Power mid-2026 round-up: Renewables cliff, Permian pipelines, and the limits of the summer rally

Wed, 17 Jun 2026 09:19:50 GMT

Key findings from this webinar:

Renewable capacity outlook: The One Big Beautiful Bill effect

A rush of solar construction starts ahead of the 4 July safe harbour deadline and an effective freeze on onshore wind permitting by the Department of Defense, resulting in a sharp decline in wind capacity additions through 2030.

Virginia rejoins RGGI: The $3.50/MWh question

The effect on RGGI allowance prices, the estimated $3.50 per megawatt hour uplift to PJM West forward prices, and the broader implications for dispatch costs across the PJM footprint.

PJM market conditions

Record generator outages, transmission constraints in Northern Virginia, and summer spark spread forecasts; with upside risks from ongoing outages at Greenway Roundtable and other key lines, and a scarcity premium baked into the West Hub forecast for the balance of summer.

ERCOT market conditions

The August monthly outlook for resource adequacy, the Batch Zero study process for matching large load growth with available generation capacity through 2032, and the implications for long-dated spark spreads; with seven gigawatts each of battery and solar capacity additions heading into summer.

Champlain Hudson Power Express (Chippy)

Revised flow expectations following commercial service entry, its capacity obligation from 1 July, and the conditions required for it to flow at full capacity.

Energy Aspects' North American Gas price and balance outlook

A Henry Hub summer forecast of $3.27, above-average storage carryout expectations for both 2026 and 2027, and production growth as the dominant driver of loose balances.

Permian basin supply dynamics

New pipeline capacity from Gulf Coast Express, Hugh Brinson, and Blackcomb; persistently negative Waha pricing ; and the path towards over 2.5 Bcfd of exit-to-exit production growth by end 2026.

Haynesville and Appalachia production outlooks

Rising private operator rig activity in Haynesville and the role of Transco's Southeast Supply Enhancement in unlocking Appalachian output growth in 2027.

LNG feedgas demand trends

Seasonal maintenance dents at major terminals, Golden Pass Train One's commissioning progress , and the outlook for a significant demand surge in H2 2027 and 2028 from new facilities including Rio Grande, CP2, and Port Arthur.

US gas exports to Mexico

Energia Costa Azul's first LNG production and the expectation of over 8 Bcfd of US pipeline exports to Mexico at peak summer by end 2027.

Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar:

Why oil product markets are pricing recovery too fast

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 10:00:59 GMT

Product cracks have corrected towards pre-conflict levels as markets price in an early Hormuz resolution. Our analysis points to a "lower ceiling, still-high floor" outcome: even a deal would not quickly restore the supply chain conditions that drove cracks to their recent levels.

The market has moved to price in a diplomatic resolution to the Strait of Hormuz disruption weeks before one has been agreed. Product cracks, timespreads and interregional differentials remain above historical levels but have fallen materially from their peaks as traders position for a restoration of Middle Eastern crude and product flows.

Our Oil Products team identifies several reasons why this repricing is ahead of the physical realities.

Why a deal announcement is not a supply restoration

The first phase of any reopening would not immediately translate into normalised product flows.

AIS data indicate around 94 mb of crude is currently stranded inside the strait.* Once Hormuz begins to reopen, markets would first need to absorb this backlog before underlying trade flows normalise. The more persistent constraint is on the refinery side: Bahrain's Sitra, a major Middle East export refinery damaged in Iranian strikes, will require repairs.

Asia crude runs, mb/d

Source: Energy Aspects

How lighter crude slates are distorting yields across the barrel

A less visible but structurally important effect of the Hormuz disruption has been a shift in the crude diet of Asian refiners. With Middle Eastern medium and heavy sour grades largely unavailable, refiners have moved to lighter Atlantic and Pacific Basin crudes . Secondary unit intake is lower as a result. Most Asian secondary units process fuel oil, with knock-on effects across the product slate.

At least 4 mb of gasoil and 2 mb of jet fuel remain on laden vessels inside the strait. Some volumes have begun to transit the Strait as shipping confidence recovers, but sizable flows will take months to normalise once the backlog clears.

At the light end, around 7.5 mb of naphtha remains trapped in the Middle East Gulf. Naphtha cracks had sold off as weak margins and leaking flows through the strait weighed on sentiment but upside risk is expected to attract US and Mediterranean supply for late-July deliveries if Hormuz recovery continues to slip.

Where stocks stand across the product complex

The correction in product cracks has occurred against a backdrop of depleted inventories. US PADD 1 diesel stocks have fallen to multi-year lows ARA naphtha stocks are 1.4 mb lower year-on-year.

Even as diplomatic progress might allow product cracks to ease from their recent peaks, the underlying inventory position requires forward cracks to price in a continued tight balance. Summer travel demand is now building. Russian diesel exports, which have provided some supply relief into Brazil and Europe, are likely to decline as Russia enters its own peak demand season.

The outlook: lower ceiling, still-high floor

Our framework for product markets through the balance of 2026 is a "lower ceiling, still-high floor" outcome. A diplomatic deal would reduce the risk premium embedded in flat price and bring some relief to prompt cracks. But the physical constraints—damaged refinery capacity, the time required to re-establish Middle Eastern crude grade flows, and starting inventory levels well below seasonal norms—mean the floor under product margins is not returning to pre-conflict levels on any near-term timeline.

FCC margins in Northwest Europe have partially recovered from their May lows but still reflect the feedstock distortions that lighter crude slates have introduced. The Atlantic basin light ends market remains tightly balanced with limited further downside but significant upside risk if Hormuz flows do not recover on schedule.

The gap between diplomatic signals and physical supply chain recovery is where product markets will be made and lost through the second half of 2026.

Energy Aspects combines Oil Products and Crude Oil coverage with near real-time vessel tracking to give clients a single view of how quickly flows are actually rebuilding.

* AIS-based assessment. AIS data reliability in the region has been subject to signal spoofing and voluntary transponder disconnections in recent months and should be treated as indicative.

El Niño adds a new risk to Europe's gas storage

Thu, 11 Jun 2026 05:31:30 GMT

Europe's gas storage injection is running behind the five-year average, and a 96% probability El Niño event through July–September risks pulling LNG cargoes towards Asia at exactly the point Europe needs them most. Our analysis of the country-level exposure shows Germany carries the greatest risk.

European gas storage ended April at 35.5 bcm, roughly 7 bcm higher than EA expected in late February, when the Hormuz conflict had barely begun to affect Middle Eastern LNG exports. On paper, that looked comfortable. The challenge is what came next.

Injection rates through May lagged the five-year average by 2.4 bcm, raising concerns that Europe may struggle to build sufficient inventory ahead of next winter.

Cumulative Asia CDDs vs 10-year normal

Source: Various government statistics, Spire, Energy Aspects

Why El Niño introduces a material variable

NOAA now puts the probability of an El Niño event at 96% for the July–September period. The direct implication for European gas markets is indirect but significant: a hotter-than-average summer in Asia would increase cooling demand and pull LNG cargoes away from European markets at a point when injections need to accelerate.

Our analysis of CDDs 5–10% above the 10-year norm suggests this scenario would reduce European LNG imports by 1.7–3.5 Mt in Q3.

A separate but related risk is a hot European summer. High temperatures — particularly when accompanied by dry conditions constraining hydro and nuclear output — would require more gas in the power sector to balance the grid. Under a severe heatwave scenario using 2018 summer conditions as the baseline, TTF Q3 prices could be pushed to €52–63/MWh to incentivise coal-to-gas switching. This risk is distinct from the El Niño channel operating through Asia, though both would tighten European balances simultaneously.

How Hormuz fits into the storage picture

The storage restocking trajectory is already complicated by the ongoing disruption to Qatari LNG exports from the Strait of Hormuz. While some bilateral cargo movements have resumed, the pace of recovery remains below pre-conflict levels.

Our Geopolitical Research team notes that even an agreed MoU between the US and Iran would not immediately restore normal traffic; mine clearance and the establishment of tanker guidance through unmined lanes takes time, and disruptions could extend well into H2 2026.

The result is that European LNG receipts have fallen as Asian buyers have drawn Atlantic cargoes — primarily US and West African supply — away from European markets to compensate at least partially for lost Middle Eastern supply. Any El Niño-driven increase in Asian demand would tighten competition for precisely those Atlantic cargoes.

Why Germany's position differs from the rest of Europe

The risk is not distributed evenly across European markets. France and Italy operate under stricter mandatory fill requirements that provide structural support to their storage trajectories. Germany, as Europe's largest storage capacity holder, lacks equivalent regulatory protection: its injection economics depend more heavily on market price signals and participants in its less vertically integrated market have limited ability to pass higher costs down to downstream consumers, which limits the tolerance for backwardation.

A comfortable storage buffer heading into winter sits around 88 bcm. Falling materially below this level raises the risk of price rises well above €50/MWh in a cold snap, because storage deliverability declines rapidly once inventories fall below 40% of capacity — meaning that even if supply eventually returns, a low starting point limits how quickly Europe can respond to peak demand.

What the forward market is and is not pricing

Market positioning suggests traders have been adding call spreads at €55–65/MWh concentrated over winter contracts. Our analysis suggests this structure understates the tail risk: if European inventories fall to historical lows on persistent supply disruption, prices could need to trade well above that range.

El Niño also carries a counter-balancing effect: quieter Atlantic hurricane seasons historically reduce LNG supply disruption risk through August–October, and the same weather pattern tends to produce milder winters in Japan, South Korea and India, freeing up more LNG for European regas.

But that potential relief is not guaranteed, and cannot substitute for adequate storage built through the summer. The near-term injection risk is real regardless of what materialises in winter.

As LNG routing decisions crystallise through July, the margin between an adequate and a tight European storage carryout will narrow quickly.

Energy Aspects' Europe Gas service tracks weekly storage trajectories, LNG import flows and TTF forward curve dynamics across every EU market.

Webinar on-demand: COI Update- Coverage, Storage Dynamics, and High Frequency Insights

Tue, 09 Jun 2026 10:58:57 GMT

An overview of the latest Crude Oil Inventories coverage update; including the addition of newly built storage locations and older sites previously outside coverage, totalling over 114 million barrels of additional capacity.

What was covered in the webinar:

Methodology

The three-phase methodology used to identify and add new storage tanks: groundwork detection, tank construction monitoring, and water testing validation; with satellite imagery used throughout to ensure data accuracy and avoid false positives.

China storage capacity trends; including the 7.3% capacity growth registered in 2025, a slowdown in early 2026 due to construction delays, and the current fill rate of around 60%, implying significant spare capacity of up to 200 million barrels.

Capacity trends

China crude capacity (bbl)

Source: Kayrros

Site-level analysis

Rising pressure on Iranian storage infrastructure at Jask, Goreh, and Kharg Island; where onshore storage levels have climbed sharply due to the US blockade preventing tanker loadings and exports.

Recent inventory dynamics

Recent inventory dynamics across China, the rest of Asia, and the US; including the draw in Asian ex-China inventories, the build in US commercial storage in the early weeks of the conflict, and more recent draws driven by record U.S crude exports.

Refinery and terminal update

Dangote refinery

Completion of Dangote refinery storage coverage with a minor addition of 1.7 million barrels

Jask terminal

Jask terminal expected to begin operations in 2028.

Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar:

What EU-UK ETS linkage means for carbon prices

Wed, 03 Jun 2026 10:03:07 GMT

The EU-UK summit, reportedly scheduled for 13 July, is expected to confirm a formal link between the two emissions trading systems. This would be the most significant structural change to European carbon markets since the UK left the EU ETS in 2021.

European carbon markets are pricing in a landmark shift. The EUA-UKA spread had narrowed to below €13/t, its lowest since the start of February, as the market anticipates a linkage announcement at the EU-UK summit. UKA prices surged close to 6% on 26 May alone, compared with a 1% rise in EUAs. The question is no longer whether linkage will happen, but how quickly it will reshape the price landscape.

What would ETS linkage actually mean?

Linking the EU and UK emissions trading systems would make allowances issued under either scheme mutually recognised for compliance in both. Regulated entities could trade across jurisdictions, creating a larger, more liquid carbon market . The agreement is also expected to establish the conditions for mutual exemptions from the respective Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms, removing what would otherwise be a significant cost for UK exporters to the EU.

The UK government has highlighted that linkage would prevent British firms from paying an estimated £800 million to the EU's carbon border tax. For the EU, the deal deepens economic integration with a major trading partner and expands the carbon market's reach. The European Partnership Bill, which the UK government announced in May, would align UK legislation with EU single market rules in relevant sectors, reducing one of the key risks around dynamic alignment.

How will the EUA-UKA spread evolve?

Energy Aspects expects the EUA-UKA spread to fall below €10/t by end-2026, with a gradual convergence over 2027-28 as lawmakers on both sides ratify the deal and update their respective laws. Full price alignment is expected from 2029 as linkage takes effect operationally. EA estimates that 90% of the linkage will be priced in upon successful conclusion of negotiations.

On the UKA side, EA forecasts prices to average £74/t in H2 2026, supported by the linkage announcement. EUAs are expected to remain rangebound around €75-80/t in the near term, with policy reform uncertainty limiting directional moves until the European Commission publishes its EU ETS proposals in July.

UKA price forecast with and without linkage, £/t

Source: Energy Aspects

What are the risks to the linkage timeline?

The most prominent near-term risk is UK domestic politics. Uncertainty around Keir Starmer's tenure as prime minister has weighed on UKA prices in recent months. Energy Aspects had lowered its Q2 2026 UKA price forecast by £1/t on this political risk. A leadership challenge could delay the summit, though our view is that even a change of Labour leader would not derail linkage, given broad cross-party support for closer EU integration.

If the summit is pushed back to end-2026, we forecast UKA prices to average £57/t in H2 2026, versus £71/t in the base case. A complete breakdown in talks, which we consider unlikely, would see UKA prices fall to around £32/t by year-end. Linkage negotiations are part of a broader package that includes agreements on food standards and a youth mobility scheme, adding complexity to the timeline.

How does EU ETS reform change the picture?

The European Commission is due to publish EU ETS reform proposals in July, coinciding with the summit. Our post-reform risk case lowers the average EUA price over 2026-30 by €7/t, reflecting plausible rule changes including adjustments to the Market Stability Reserve, slower CBAM phase-in and the frontloading of Industrial Decarbonisation Bank financing. The reform process adds almost 400 Mt of supply over 2026-30 in the risk case.

For carbon market participants, the interaction between linkage and reform is critical. If EU ETS reforms loosen balances more than expected, the convergence target for UKA prices shifts lower. Conversely, if reforms are modest, the combined market would be tighter, supporting prices across both systems. The sequencing of reform proposals and linkage confirmation in July makes the month a pivotal one for European carbon pricing.

What does this mean for UK emitters and compliance buyers?

UK ETS fundamentals will have a limited role on prices as long as linkage remains the key pricing nexus. UK verified emissions came in at 80 Mt in 2025, down 6 Mt year on year, with industrial closures in steel, refining and chemicals driving the decline. The scrapping of the UK Carbon Price Support from April 2028 will moderately raise UKA demand in winter hours, but EA does not expect this to materially change the price outlook under a linkage scenario.

For compliance buyers, the practical implication is that hedging strategies should increasingly reference EUA price levels rather than treating the UK ETS as an isolated market. The transition period between announcement and full implementation will create opportunities for spread trading, but the direction of convergence is clear.

This analysis draws on Energy Aspects' Emissions service, including our EU and UK carbon price forecasts, ETS balance modelling and policy analysis. To access the full depth of our emissions coverage, request a trial.

Why the Strait of Hormuz won't reopen overnight

Tue, 02 Jun 2026 13:42:18 GMT

The market is treating Hormuz as binary: open or closed. Energy Aspects' Maritime Analytics and proprietary geospatial intelligence show why the reality is more complex and why oil flow recovery will be slow, uneven and possibly incomplete.

More than three months into the largest oil and LNG supply disruption in history, fewer than 50 laden non-Iranian tankers (excluding small tankers) have transited the Strait of Hormuz throughout May. While a number of individual transits have generated headlines suggesting a recovery in flows, the aggregate picture tells a different story.

EA Maritime Analytics data show outbound flows of non-Iranian oil have averaged 0.98 mb/d for crude, 0.22 mb/d of oil products (ex-methanol) and 0.10 mb/d for LPG in May, compared with pre-conflict flows of 17.8 mb/d. That is less than one-tenth of normal traffic. Isolated transits should not be confused with a meaningful recovery.

Hormuz oil tanker transits, #

Note: Basis AIS-derived data, including Iran-linked vessels, excl. small tankers

Source: Energy Aspects

What is actually crossing the strait?

Most vessels transiting Hormuz are using the northern shipping corridor close to the Iranian coastline, suggesting they have Iranian approval. Several Qatari LNG cargoes have crossed under a bilateral agreement between Pakistan and Iran. Crude oil shippers have been sending cargoes through with AIS transponders switched off, sometimes to carry out ship-to-ship operations in the Gulf of Oman.

Iran is approving only a limited number of vessels each day and is maintaining a sufficiently elevated threat level to deter most shippers from attempting to cross without permission. We estimate that 99 mb of crude, 37 mb of oil products and 279 kt of LPG remain stranded on tankers within Hormuz on board 247 vessels as of 2 June. Media coverage of individual transits can create the misleading impression that flows are normalising when the underlying data show otherwise.

Why a signed MoU would be just the beginning

The US and Iran are in the final stages of negotiating a memorandum of understanding. If agreed, it would commit both parties to gradually lift their respective blockades during an interim 30- to 60-day period. But as our geopolitical team has noted, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed, and wide gaps remain over Hormuz governance, Iran's nuclear programme and economic relief for Tehran.

Even under a signed MoU, confidence-building measures would include Iran allowing more tankers to cross and some easing of the US blockade, but this would fall well short of a full restoration of normal shipping flows. Mines would need to be cleared, an interim transit system established to sequence vessel crossings and shippers convinced the waterway is safe.

Our geopolitical analysis is embedded across all of our relevant energy market services.

Why shippers are unlikely to return quickly even after a deal

Most shipowners, refiners and traders view transit risks as too high, not only now but even in the early days after the strait reopens. The risk of sporadic attacks by Iran's proxies cannot be ruled out. Insurance premiums for Hormuz transits remain at levels that make many routes uneconomic. The central question is not whether isolated vessels can pass, but whether flows can resume at scale and with enough reliability to support genuine normalisation.

Several Gulf producers are developing or expanding pipeline routes that bypass Hormuz to reduce long-term exposure. This is a structural shift that will outlast the current conflict, underscoring that even market participants with direct stakes in Hormuz do not expect a return to pre-conflict normality .

What does EA's proprietary geospatial data show about inventory pressure?

The stranded volumes within Hormuz have prevented Gulf producers from restarting upstream production or refineries that depend on export flows via the strait. Kayrros satellite data show Iraqi onshore crude stocks have fallen by roughly 4 mb since mid-April as cargoes have been loaded from storage, but production is not yet being brought back online.

Meanwhile, the US blockade on Iranian exports has caused Iranian crude loadings to collapse to below 0.4 mb/d in May, from 1.8 mb/d in March. Crude tank utilisation at Kharg Island has risen to 84%, leaving only a few weeks before nationwide storage constraints begin to bite.

How should the market think about the recovery timeline?

We maintain our base case of oil transits reaching 50% of pre-war tonnage by end-June. Even this may prove optimistic. If disruptions extend into Q3 26, there are likely to be cascading supply shortfalls this summer, sharp price rises and medium-term impacts on global energy supply chains.

The largest disruption in oil and LNG market history is about to enter its fourth month. Government releases of strategic petroleum reserves have kept benchmark prices below demand-destruction levels for now, but the buffer is finite, the diplomatic path is uncertain and the operational challenges of restoring flows are substantial. A measured assessment of the recovery timeline requires looking beyond individual transits to the structural barriers that remain.

This analysis draws on Energy Aspects' proprietary maritime analytics, Kayrros geospatial intelligence and our geopolitical team's on-the-ground sources.

To explore how EA tracks Hormuz flows in near real-time and access the full depth of our crude, geopolitics and cross-commodity analysis, request a trial.

High-frequency data show limited consumer demand response to higher oil prices

Thu, 28 May 2026 11:30:52 GMT

EA and Kayrros high-frequency indicators, among others, key to monitor end-user consumption health as rampant destocking hits demand.
Strong backwardation in past weeks and destocking exaggerates fears of demand destruction, as shown by high-frequency data.
Some US intermodal freight substitution creates modest downside risk, but overall US and European trucking activity remains healthy.
Resilient jet demand outside Middle East, China, supporting our global kerosene forecast of a 1.1% y/y increase through H2 26.
Middle East demand declines easing; rerouted trade and recovering aviation should support regional demand.

Energy Aspects’ high-frequency indicators, including our proprietary trucking indices and data produced by our colleagues at Kayrros, offer a timely read on how end-user consumption is responding to higher oil prices. One of the most recurring themes in recent discussions with clients has been the status of downstream oil product demand. Physical players all note lacklustre demand in April and May, questioning the health of end-user consumption. These high-frequency indicators have shown little clear evidence of a meaningful reduction in end-user demand. Instead, what physical players are experiencing as poor demand, appears to be destocking by wholesalers in response to extreme backwardation in forward prices.

Trucking activity in the US and Europe remains close to seasonal norms, jet demand outside the Middle East and China has held up well and US gasoline demand shows no clear sign of weakness. Once the rampant destocking in oil product markets in March and April is digested by the system, still-healthy end-user consumption will translate into more demand.

Demand will not remain immune to elevated prices indefinitely and obvious downside risks remain: airlines could further trim schedules and consolidate flights if ticket sales soften, the US is entering the more price-sensitive summer driving season and hauliers cannot absorb elevated prices forever. But without another leg up in prices, any demand decline is likely to be slow and drawn out, risking tighter product balances. High-frequency data will therefore be critical in identifying turning points in downstream consumption over the coming months.

Fig 1: Diesel demand actuals relative to pre-war forecast, %

Source: Energy Aspects

Fig 2: Gasoline demand actuals relative to pre-war forecast, %

Source: Energy Aspects

Kayrros high-frequency gasoline consumption estimates, derived from connected vehicle data, suggest the US demand response to higher prices has so far been limited, pointing to upside risk to our current forecast. By contrast, some recent institutional research suggests US gasoline consumption fell by as much as 3% y/y in March, based on credit card spending at petrol stations or broader consumer expenditure data. While few in the market take those estimates as accurate estimates of volumes demanded, they highlight how noisy spending-based demand measures are and how misleading their signals can be around turning points.

Spending data are reported in US dollars and must be deflated by retail fuel prices or gasoline consumer prices indices to infer volumes. On that basis, the implied drop appears sharp, but we do not see the same signal in petrol station transaction counts, which have remained firm. We expect this is in part due to a shift in consumption patterns. When prices spike, consumers search actively for cheaper fuel, shifting purchases towards lower-priced petrol stations and lower-grade fuels. Aggregate retail price statistics do not fully capture that behaviour, which can overstate retail price figures and exaggerate the appearance of falling demand when deflating spending data. Historically, spending data have been noisy demand indicators.

We place greater weight on indicators measured in volumetric terms like Kayrros gasoline consumption estimates, which are less volatile and have tracked monthly demand data more closely. This series will be key to tracking US gasoline demand through the summer driving season, when most discretionary driving occurs.

US gasoline demand unmoved by price; summer driving season key test

Fig 3: High-frequency US gasoline demand, mb/d, seven-day moving average

Notes: Simple average of EIA weekly, Kayrros on-road demand and credit card transactions at petrol stations; high-frequency data are normalised to have the same mean and standard deviation as diesel demand from 2023 and 2025 to convert values to mb/d

Source: Kayrros, EIA, CEIC, Energy Aspects

Fig 4: US trucking activity, Index 2019=100

Notes: Combines proprietary EA trucking indices and Kayrros on-road diesel demand

Source: Kayrros, Energy Aspects

Find out how our data and analysis help you track gasoline and jet demand ahead of the market.

In the US, high-frequency indicators do not point to any broad-based collapse in diesel demand, though both the EA truck indices and Kayrros on-road diesel demand indices softened in late April. A composite road freight index, combining both series, shows this pattern but has recovered towards its seasonal norm in May. That weakness is consistent with rail carload data, which suggest loadings sit at the top end of their seasonal range, as well as reports of some intermodal substitution amid soaring road freight rates.

There is hence some modest downside risk to US diesel demand in April, consistent with our forecast for petroleum diesel demand to remain broadly flat y/y over the period. But it does not signal any marked capitulation in underlying demand. Rail carloads of petroleum products and chemicals have moved above seasonal norms since the war’s start, adding to the evidence of destocking amid elevated product spreads.

Our proprietary satellite-based trucking indices show no evidence of a slowdown in European road freight, suggesting that price reaction to date has been limited with trucking activity above seasonal norms for much of the year. This strength is broad-based across the region with few signs of weakness, even in countries that have not introduced any major diesel price subsidies, such as the UK. Any limited demand downside is likely led by private consumers and households through less discretionary driving and deferred heating oil purchases in anticipation of lower prices later in the year.

US road freight finds limited competition from rail; Europe trucking remains firm

Fig 5: US rail car loads, all goods, ‘000s

Source: Energy Aspects

Fig 6: EU-5 trucking activity, Index 2019=100

Source: Energy Aspects

Get industry-leading intelligence on truck traffic and road diesel demand.

Our Middle East regional aggregate trucking index leads diesel demand by around a month, providing an advanced signal on the direction of demand. The index largely supports our forecast of a diesel demand recovery to around seasonal norms by June. But activity has diverged sharply across the region, reflecting uneven exposure to geopolitical tensions, trade disruption and shifting supply chains. Markets benefiting from overland trade rerouting and stronger domestic logistics have outperformed, while those more exposed to regional disruption remain under pressure.

Saudi cargo-port throughput data show that while waterborne departures via the Strait of Hormuz have dried up, those via the Red Sea recovered to around 30% above levels seen in March. Our trucking indices show a similar pattern, rising by around 25% from those levels in March in the month to date, supporting the idea that goods are being shipped across the Kingdom to the Red Sea and propping up diesel demand. Meanwhile, truck activity in the UAE (-17% y/y) and Qatar (-24% y/y) remains under pressure amid weaker regional trade and slower transshipments.

Middle East trucking recovering in May as goods trucked to non-Hormuz ports

Fig 7: Middle East diesel demand and truck index, mb/d; Index 2019=100 (RHS)

Source: Energy Aspects

Fig 8: Saudi Arabia non-Hormuz cargo throughput and truck index, Mt/d; Index 2019 = 100 (RHS)

Source: Energy Aspects

Middle East high-frequency jet demand indicators deteriorated sharply after the US/Israel–Iran conflict began on 28 February. Radarbox data show commercial flights collapsing in March before gradually recovering through April and May, though activity remains well below pre-conflict levels. Kayrros jet consumption data show a smaller decline with lower fuel-per-flight intraregional travel hit hardest.

We expect Middle East jet demand to recover gradually through August, with y/y declines narrowing from around -0.37 mb/d in March to near-flat levels by late Q3 26 as regional aviation activity normalises. But there is downside risk to this forecast as the pace of recovery will partially depend on how swiftly non-Middle Eastern carriers regain confidence in the region as a hub between East and West.

Global jet demand remains resilient, with Middle East activity recovering

Fig 9: Middle East jet fuel consumption and flight activity, % y/y

Source: Kayrros, Radarbox, Energy Aspects

Fig 10: Global (ex-Middle East and China) flight activity, % y/y

Source: Radarbox, Energy Aspects

Outside the Middle East, high-frequency indicators suggest global aviation activity has remained comparatively resilient. Flight counts, excluding the Middle East and China, have tracked near the lower end of their historical range since the start of the conflict, with weakness concentrated in parts of Southeast Asia exposed to disrupted transit routes and temporary jet fuel shortages, notably Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore. Europe and North America have been less affected, and we continue to expect jet demand growth outside the Middle East and China to strengthen to around 2% y/y through H2 26.

In China, jet fuel demand was 0.75 mb/d in April, down by 0.30 mb/d m/m on rising domestic flight cancellations, with risks skewed to the downside for our forecast over bal-year. High-speed rail poses a growing threat to jet demand, as highlighted by Labour Day travel data. High-speed trains, which can reach speeds of 350 km/h on major routes, are eating into demand for short-haul flights. High-frequency data show the cancellation rate of domestic flights has climbed from roughly 10% in January–February to more than 17% in March–May.

Fig 11: Commercial flights growth per region, % y/y

Source: Kayrros, Radarbox, Energy Aspects

Fig 12: Chinese passenger flight cancellation, %

Source: Radarbox, Energy Aspects

Find out how our high-frequency oil demand indicators help you track real-time consumption trends.

Energy Aspects completes acquisition of Kayrros as disruption to global energy flows intensifies demand for verified, ground-truth intelligence

Thu, 21 May 2026 09:49:31 GMT

Deal brings together market-leading energy analysis with satellite-based monitoring and geospatial intelligence.
News comes as markets seek faster, more reliable information at a time of heightened geopolitical disruption.
Combined company will expand data and analytics capabilities for clients across energy and financial markets.
Deal represents a major step towards measuring and forecasting energy demand using satellite observation, rather than supply-side proxies alone.
Energy Aspects CEO, Fredrik Fosse, says the deal strengthens company’s ability to help clients navigate a more complex energy landscape.

LONDON, UK; PARIS, FRANCE—21 May 2026—Market data and intelligence provider Energy Aspects has completed the acquisition of Kayrros, the Paris-based energy analytics and satellite data company.

The deal is the next step in Energy Aspects’ growth plan. It strengthens the company’s data and analytics capabilities at a time when energy markets are being shaped by geopolitical shocks, supply disruption and changing trade flows.

By combining Energy Aspects’ market expertise and analysis with Kayrros’ strengths in satellite monitoring, geospatial intelligence and advanced analytics, clients will receive a stronger real-time view of global energy markets.

It also aims to unlock the ability to measure and forecast energy demand, tracking actual consumption through earth observation rather than relying on supply-side proxies alone. This addresses one of the most persistent gaps in energy market intelligence—the opacity of demand.

The need for faster, more reliable intelligence has grown more pressing in recent months, with conflict in the Middle East bringing greater attention to energy infrastructure resilience, supply routes and production risk. In this environment, the ability to verify and validate intelligence with satellite-based ground-truth has become a critical advantage.

Fredrik Fosse, CEO of Energy Aspects, said:

“When we announced this deal in March, I said the future of energy market intelligence would be shaped by data, technology and advanced analytics. Today, with the acquisition complete, we are putting that into practice.

“We are delighted to welcome the Kayrros team to Energy Aspects. They have built world-class geospatial intelligence capabilities with the ability to see what is actually happening on the ground, in near real time, across the global energy complex. Combining that with our deep market expertise gives our clients something the industry has been missing, verified, ground-truth intelligence in markets that are increasingly volatile, geopolitically complex and stubbornly opaque.

“This is about more than adding a new data source. It is about fundamentally strengthening the depth and rigour of the analysis we deliver and opening up entirely new ways to bring transparency to how energy markets actually work.”

Antoine Rostand, President and Co-founder of Kayrros, said:

“This is an important new chapter for Kayrros.

“Our technology was built to bring transparency to markets that were complex and often opaque. Together with Energy Aspects, we can accelerate our progress towards completing that mission and deliver even greater value to clients worldwide.

“The combination of satellite intelligence and first-rate market analysis brings something genuinely powerful to the industry.”

The combined company will serve clients across energy and financial markets with a broader range of data and technology-led intelligence products. It will also continue to explore new uses for satellite analytics across a fast-changing global economy.

For media enquiries, please contact: press@energyaspects.com

About Energy Aspects

Energy Aspects is a leading provider of market data and intelligence solutions, redefining how global energy and macro markets are understood. Founded in 2012, the company has evolved from a research house into a data and technology-driven energy commodity markets intelligence leader. Through continuous innovation, Energy Aspects integrates human insight, proprietary data and advanced analytics to deliver actionable intelligence at market speed.

Strategic acquisitions and ongoing investments in AI and technology have deepened the company’s expertise and broadened its capabilities, enabling clients to navigate every market shift.

Energy Aspects is headquartered in London, with offices in New York, Houston, Singapore, Dubai, Riyadh, Kolkata, Tokyo and Athens. For more information, visit energyaspects.com.

Founded in 2016, Kayrros is the world leader in energy and environmental intelligence.

It uses AI, advanced machine learning and geoanalytics to turn raw data from more than 20 satellite constellations into actionable insights on energy, supply chains, physical risks, nature and the environment. Kayrros works with businesses and governments to make energy systems more efficient, improve supply security, boost climate resilience and manage environmental impacts while enabling investors, insurers, traders and other stakeholders to make faster, smarter decisions.

Named one of the world’s 100 Most Influential Companies by TIME, a Fortune ‘Change the World’ company, and one of Fast Company’s ‘Most Innovative Companies’, Kayrros helps organisations and individuals better understand the risks and opportunities posed by the evolving energy and climate landscape.

Kayrros is headquartered in Paris and has offices in Houston, New York, London, Bangalore and Singapore. For more information kayrros.com.

Explore Kayrros' capabilities now

Get access to satellite-verified intelligence for global energy markets, from crude oil storage to LNG outage detection to US upstream activity.

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Weekend effect in WTI options could be eliminated by emergence of 24/7 crude perpetuals

Tue, 19 May 2026 09:35:06 GMT

Key Insights

The structural Friday IV selloff in prompt WTI options could permanently disappear as perpetual adoption grows.
Traders can now hedge options through weekend due to 24/7 WTI perpetual futures on crypto exchanges.
YTD notional volume has reached $65 billion, with weekends averaging roughly 30% of weekday intensity.
There is a clear early-mover advantage for participants willing to adopt these new venues.

The dynamics of short-dated WTI options pricing are set to change due to the emergence and rapid growth of 24/7 WTI crude oil perpetual futures on crypto and spread betting exchanges. For the first time, traders can hedge options exposure through the weekend, when geopolitical risk has become disproportionately concentrated. This development has implications for the well-documented “weekend effect” in short-dated WTI options, where implied volatility is structurally depressed on Fridays as long gamma holders liquidate positions they cannot hedge over the market closure.

The structural origin of the weekend effect lies in a tension between theory and market mechanics. The Black-Scholes framework assumes variance accrues continuously and that delta hedging is always available—neither of which holds over a weekend. In practice, WTI futures trade on CME for roughly 23 hours per day on weekdays and not at all from Friday 16:00 CT to Sunday 17:00 CT. This gap creates a well-documented pattern in short-dated options pricing. Holders of long gamma positions do not want to pay theta over a weekend they cannot hedge through, so they liquidate into Friday close, depressing implied volatility. The selling pressure then dissipates on Monday open and implied volatility (IV) recovers. The net effect is a structurally positive IV move from Friday close to Monday open.

Since 2022, M1 at-the-money (ATM) IV has deviated by nearly one volatility point below its weekly mean on Fridays and recovered by a similar magnitude on Mondays, a statistically significant and persistent pattern (see Figure 1). Crucially, M2 shows almost no weekday pattern, consistent with the weekend representing a smaller fraction of remaining time value for deferred contracts and therefore less incentive to liquidate. The structural Friday IV selloff in prompt WTI options could permanently disappear as perpetual adoption grows. Traders can now hedge options through weekend due to 24/7 WTI perpetual futures on crypto exchanges. YTD notional volume has reached $65 billion, with weekends averaging roughly 30% of weekday intensity. There is a clear early-mover advantage for participants willing to adopt these new venues.

Fig 1: WTI ATM IV weekday seasonality, May 2022–May 2026

Source: Energy Aspects

But the past 12 months tells a more nuanced story. The Friday M1 trough has largely disappeared in the recent sample while M2 is now showing a positive Friday deviation with much wider error bars (see Figure 2). However, M1 still underperforms M2 on Fridays, suggesting the weekend effect has not vanished, rather it is being offset by competing forces. We attribute this to two dynamics. First, the geopolitical environment since the US–Iran escalation has made weekends riskier. Diplomatic developments, military briefings and OPEC-related announcements have disproportionately broken over weekends when political cover is thinner. This has reduced the incentive to sell Friday gamma and, in some cases, created demand for it. Second, and more recent, the emergence of 24/7 WTI crude oil perpetual futures on crypto exchanges is beginning to change the hedging calculus, and the volume data suggest this market is maturing faster than many expected.

Fig 2: WTI ATM IV weekday seasonality, May 2025–May 2026

Source: Energy Aspects

Venues, including Bullish, now offer WTI perpetual futures that trade around the clock, including weekends. Bullish offers a perpetual that indirectly references the WTI contract and has provided us with volume data. The data are instructive. YTD notional volume across WTI and Brent perpetuals has reached $65 billion, with WTI accounting for roughly 70% of flow [see Figure 3]. Average weekday volume is $1.14 billion notional while weekend days average $340 million, approximately 30% of weekday intensity. This is not NYMEX-scale liquidity but would be sufficient to delta-hedge a moderately sized options book over a two-day window.

Fig 3: WTI Volume by Week (Thu-Wed) from Feb-May 2026

Source: Energy Aspects

The growth trajectory has been steep. Daily volumes were negligible in late February at $13–25 million and ramped through March before exploding in early April. The peak day was 7 April at $3.3 billion, coinciding with Trump’s ultimatum deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Weekend volume is bumpy and event-driven, ranging from $79 million on 2–3 May, when headlines were quiet, to $1.3 billion on 12 April when US–Iran talks in Islamabad collapsed and Trump announced a naval blockade of vessels transiting Hormuz.

The perpetual’s funding rate mechanism keeps its price anchored to the underlying, if a trader priced options off the perpetual directly over the weekend then it could provide a viable hedging instrument for the duration of the market closure. When CME reopens on Monday, the perpetual converges back to the NYMEX benchmark, with any residual basis at that point representing a small second-order risk relative to the gamma P&L captured over the weekend. Cross-margining across NYMEX and a crypto venue is an operational consideration but limited in impact given the short two-day duration of the exposure.

The emergence of these perpetuals means it is now possible to buy NYMEX WTI options on Friday afternoon into the IV trough, trade the long gamma position over the weekend using the perpetual, and monetise variance that the NYMEX options market has historically priced as un-hedgeable dead time. Any gamma P&L accumulated over the weekend would be supplemented by IV recovery on Monday open. In the current geopolitical environment where weekend risk events are frequent, structurally cheap options and newly available hedging are likely to attract growing attention.

Jeff Currie on the diesel pinch point, Hormuz, and equity "la la land"

Fri, 15 May 2026 09:31:56 GMT

On 8 May, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Jeff Currie, Co-Chair at Abaxx Exchange, Co-Founder of 1947 Oil & Gas Plc and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects. Key points included:

Why the market is conflating a deficit with a shortage; until we tip into the latter, prices won't reflect reality.
Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopened tomorrow, long-dated oil needs to reprice on the structural set-up.
Jeff sees this as the biggest repricing opportunity across the commodity complex.
Equity markets are in "la la land", having repriced the energy halo lower—Jeff argues case for rest of the hard asset complex.
Diesel is the pinch point and a key driver to watch given how broadly it feeds through the system.

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Energy Aspects named Commodity Research House of the Year 2026

Fri, 08 May 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Energy Aspects has been named Commodity Research House of the Year at the Energy Risk Awards 2026, marking the second consecutive year the company has received the accolade.

Energy Aspects has been awarded Commodities Research House of the Year at the Energy Risk Awards 2026. The award, which Energy Aspects also won in 2025 , recognises the company’s research and data platform across global energy and macro markets.

The past 12 months have been defined by unprecedented volatility and fast-moving geopolitical events that have reshaped commodity flows and tested the analytical frameworks market participants rely on. Throughout this period, Energy Aspects has combined deep expertise, proprietary data and advanced analytics to provide real-time insights , signals and tools that help clients respond with speed and confidence.

Energy Aspects’ research is built on a strategic, interconnected approach that bridges traditional silos between physical commodity flows, financial market positioning and policy impacts. At the core of the platform are proprietary supply-demand models, AI-powered tools including a Geopolitical Index and Sentiment Index, and machine learning models that refine short-term forecasts. Coverage spans the entire energy complex, agricultural commodities, metals and macro markets, offering clients a full-spectrum view from intra-day moves to long-term structural shifts.

The company has continued to invest in proprietary data capabilities that give clients ground truth where official data lag behind reality. Its earth observation platform monitors over 80% of global oil and gas fields for flaring activity, enabling real-time supply estimates materially ahead of official releases. Cargo tracking, truck traffic indices and on-the-ground intelligence from across producing regions feed into the company’s analytical models, providing clients with verified, differentiated analysis when it matters most.

Energy Aspects was named Commodities Research House of the Year at the Energy Risk Awards in both 2025 and 2026. To learn more about our research and data platform, request a trial or contact us .

European jet tightness was an early Energy Aspects call

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 09:22:15 GMT

When conflict in the Middle East began disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz in early March, Energy Aspects quickly identified a key risk for oil products markets: European jet fuel was set to tighten sharply as Middle East flows dried up and replacement barrels proved limited.

That view has since played out. European jet fuel imports have fallen sharply in April, ARA stocks have been drawing, and the market has remained firm as supply options narrowed.

Europe is particularly vulnerable to disruption in Middle East jet fuel flows. A significant share of its imports normally comes directly from the region, while alternative supply options are limited when Asian balances are also tightening.

Our early March analysis showed this was not simply a case of delayed oil cargoes. Refinery run cuts in the Middle East and Asia were creating a more persistent supply loss, while freight constraints, export restrictions and regional competition for barrels were making replacement supply harder to secure.

Oil cargoes already on the water helped keep Europe supplied through March, but that cushion was always temporary. Once those barrels were absorbed, the balance was set to tighten.

Europe’s jet fuel exposure was clear from the start

6 March 2026: An EA Live post warned that jet fuel would remain relatively stronger than diesel because resupply options were more limited. We highlighted Europe’s dependence on Middle Eastern jet fuel imports and said the region would face a much tighter market once cargoes already on the water were absorbed.

20 March 2026: Another EA Live post reinforced that view, stating that European diesel and jet fuel imports would be minimal in April and that jet fuel had limited alternatives. We noted that European jet fuel imports looked thin once in-transit cargoes were absorbed, while US Gulf Coast flows were also proving weaker than expected.

The call in real time: How Energy Aspects tracked the tightening jet fuel market

24 March 2026, 11:09: An EA Live alert made the call explicitly: “European jet imports to fall sharply from April as Middle East flows dry up.” We forecast imports at 0.17 mb/d in April, down 0.33 mb/d month-on-month and year-on-year, as Middle East flows effectively halted and tighter Asian balances capped exports from the region.

Late March: A further EA Live post showed the tightening was already feeding through to storage. ARA jet fuel stocks drew by 56 kt week-on-week, sitting around 0.25 Mt lower year-on-year and below the five-year average, as east-of-Suez imports dried up.

European jet imports, mb/d

Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

ARA jet inventories, Mt

Source: Insights global, Energy Aspects

This was a specific market call based on near real-time flows analysis, regional balances and inventory monitoring.

Three signals mattered most:

Why the call stood out

That combination made jet fuel especially exposed and pointed to a tighter market, lower stocks and stronger prices.

That tightening has become clearer through April.

European jet fuel imports have already fallen sharply this month, in line with our March call. ARA jet stocks have been drawing as east-of-Suez imports slowed, and replacement barrels remain limited. Prices have responded accordingly, with jet fuel continuing to outperform diesel and regrades staying elevated by historical standards.

Our latest view is that European jet fuel stocks could fall below the seasonal range by the end of May, keeping the market exceptionally tight through Q2 26 and supporting prices further.

What happened next

For clients exposed to refined products , this was actionable intelligence. It highlighted early that jet fuel was likely to outperform diesel, that Europe’s import picture would deteriorate once in-transit cargoes cleared, and that price strength was likely to persist unless demand softened enough to rebalance the oil market .

That is what EA Live is built to do: give clients the near real-time data, market intelligence and rapid analysis needed to stay ahead of fast-moving market shifts .

Why this mattered for clients

The product crisis building behind the crude headlines

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Crude supply disruptions are dominating the narrative. But the tightness in refined products — jet fuel, diesel and gasoline — may prove more severe and longer-lasting. Here is what the market is underestimating.

Since the escalation of the Strait of Hormuz crisis, the energy market’s attention has been focussed on crude supply. That focus is understandable: upstream shut-ins across the Gulf have reached approximately 12 mb/d, while negotiations between US-Iran struggle to make progress, leaving markets to navigate headline risk.

But behind the crude story, a product crisis is building that could prove more consequential for consumers, refiners and policymakers — and it is not getting the attention it deserves.

The disruption to Middle Eastern refining capacity, combined with run cuts in Asia and now Europe, has removed an enormous volume of refined product from the global market. Energy Aspects estimates that over 450 million barrels of product output have been lost since the conflict began.

The scale of the problem

To put that in context: if demand remained unchanged and all other variables held constant, it would take until nearly 2030 to replace those lost barrels through normal refinery operations. That is not a realistic scenario — demand will adjust, as it always does — but it illustrates the depth of the deficit the market is facing.

Refinery run cuts globally are in the range of 5-6 mb/d. And unlike crude, where OPEC retains some limited spare production capacity, there is no equivalent buffer in the refining system. Global refineries were already operating at or near maximum utilisation before the crisis began.

Run cuts, mb/d

Source: Insights global, Energy Aspects

The impact varies by product, but the direction is uniformly tight.

Distillates have been hit hardest. The Middle East and Asia account for a large share of global diesel and gasoil exports. With run cuts concentrated in those regions and export restrictions now in place across several Asian countries, the flow of distillates to the rest of the world has slowed dramatically. European diesel stocks are well below five-year minimums and falling.

Jet fuel presents perhaps the most acute near-term risk. On a days-of-forward-cover basis, European jet stocks are critically low — in some markets, just weeks of supply remain. Energy Aspects expects stock-outs are possible later in the summer if the disruption persists. Some cancellations and flight route optimisation has already started across a number of major airlines as they brace for higher jet-fuel costs.

Which products are most exposed?

Iran conflict-related product supply loss, mb

Source: Argus Media Group, LSEG, Energy Aspects

Gasoline has received less attention because it is not as directly exposed to Middle Eastern supply as diesel or jet. But the risk is building. Globally, the percentage of refineries incentivised to produce gasoline over jet and diesel has fallen to effectively zero. Refiners are maximising distillate and jet output because the economics overwhelmingly favour those products. That leaves gasoline as the residual — and with Asian buyers pulling European gasoline cargoes east, Atlantic basin gasoline tightness is emerging just as the Northern Hemisphere summer driving season approaches.

One reason the crisis has not yet triggered a sharper market reaction is that Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) drawdowns, particularly in Asia, are bridging the gap. Japan is drawing strategic stocks at over 1 mb/d, and South Korea at around 0.3

Strategic petroleum reserves are masking the tightness

Cumulative global liquids SPR change, mb

Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

In the West, the drawdowns have been more modest so far and led by the US. And that is precisely why the Western market has not yet felt the full severity of the product deficit. The SPR releases are a buffer, not a solution. They buy time, but they do not replace the lost refinery output. And every barrel drawn from strategic reserves today is a barrel that must be replenished later — adding to medium-term re-stocking demand.

The timing of the product crisis is critical. Asian refiners are at their lowest point now — drawing on SPRs, cutting runs, and restricting exports to preserve domestic supply. The products they are not exporting would normally arrive in Western markets with a lead time of several weeks.

That means the full impact on European and US product markets is a May and June event. As the reduced Asian export volumes feed through, as European refinery run cuts deepen because of negative margins, and as SPR cover diminishes, the West will start to experience the tightness that Asia has been managing for weeks.

For jet fuel, the timeline is even tighter. European stocks have limited SPR coverage, and the summer travel season will test supply.

The West has not felt the pinch yet — but it is coming

Prices must rise to curb demand

The disconnect between the severity of the product deficit and the relatively muted reaction in benchmark product prices cannot persist indefinitely. The crude market has done its work — physical crude prices have surged to levels that have destroyed refining margins and forced run cuts. The next leg of price adjustment must come from products.

Product prices need to rise to a level that achieves two things simultaneously: restoring refining margins so that the remaining operational capacity runs at maximum, and reducing demand enough to bring the market back into balance. Those are competing objectives — higher product prices improve margins but also accelerate demand destruction — and finding the equilibrium will be volatile.

What is clear is that the deferred portions of the product price curves — the months and quarters ahead — will have to roll up substantially from current levels. The market is not yet pricing the duration and depth of this product deficit, partly because the physical tightness has been concentrated in Asia and partly because SPR releases have obscured the underlying shortage.

The bottom line

The crude supply story is real and severe. But the product crisis may ultimately have a greater impact on consumers, on the political calculus around export restrictions and emergency measures. It is the part of this crisis that is still underpriced, and it deserves far more attention than it is getting.

This analysis draws on Energy Aspects’ latest webinar ‘Hormuz transit – exploring the new normal for energy markets, recorded 16 April 2026, featuring Dr Amrita Sen (Founder and Director of Market Intelligence) , Richard Bronze (Head of Geopolitics) and Livia Gallarati (Head of Global Gas).

Why oil benchmark prices don’t reflect the real cost of crude

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 09:22:15 GMT

The physical market is telling a very different story to the futures screen. Here is what is driving the disconnect — and why it matters for energy market participants.

The Strait of Hormuz crisis has produced one of the widest divergences between physical and paper crude oil prices in recent history. Benchmark futures suggest a market that is tight but manageable. The physical market tells a different story entirely.

Understanding why these two price signals have decoupled — and which one is more reliable — is critical for anyone making trading, hedging, or investment decisions in the current environment.

At the time of writing, Brent crude futures are trading in the mid-$90s per barrel. That is elevated by recent historical standards, but it is not pricing a crisis. It does not signal the kind of acute supply disruption that the physical market is experiencing.

The physical market paints a starkly different picture. Dated Brent has surged well above $140/bbl. Dubai, the key Asian benchmark, spiked to $170/bbl before contract changes reduced the number of deliverable cargoes. West African and North Sea cargo prices are trading at substantial premiums to benchmarks. And once freight costs are factored in, crude is landing in Asia at well over $170/bbl.

These are not marginal differences. The gap between the screen price and the actual cost of procuring and delivering a cargo of crude has widened to levels that are distorting refining economics, hedging strategies and procurement decisions across the globe.

What the oil benchmarks say versus what cargoes cost

As EA’s Quant team has been highlighting to clients, several structural factors are suppressing the paper price relative to the physical market.

Why oil futures are lagging the physical reality

Liquidity & Risk Capacity

Hedging Dislocation

Timing

The first is liquidity and risk capacity. Open interest and trading volumes have fallen sharply since the conflict escalated. Exchanges have raised margin requirements, and elevated realised volatility has sharply restricted VaR — the risk budget under which systematic and vol-sensitive funds operate — forcing them to cut positions regardless of fundamental view. The result is a thinner market, less responsive to fundamental signals, in which price discovery is being actively suppressed — not because participants disagree with the tightness thesis, but because they cannot carry the positions that would reflect it.

The second is the hedging dislocation. Many physical market participants had hedged Middle Eastern cargoes that never materialised. That has left them with short futures positions exposed against physical obligations that have shifted to higher-cost Atlantic basin supply. Unwinding those positions in a low-liquidity environment is difficult and slow.

The third factor is timing. The most acute tightness is concentrated in the prompt physical market — March and April loadings — while futures trade two months forward. That structural lag means futures are pricing a period when the market expects some recovery in Hormuz flows, even though the current physical shortfall is severe.

Asian buyers, facing the most direct exposure to the loss of Middle Eastern supply, have moved aggressively into the Atlantic basin. US crude exports have surged to record levels , running more than 1 mb/d above normal. That buying spree has pulled available supply away from European and US refiners, who typically purchase on shorter lead times.

The procurement cycle difference is significant. Asian buyers commit two months in advance. European buyers operate one month ahead. US refiners often purchase weeks or even days before delivery, relying on pipeline supply. In a scramble for barrels, Asia’s longer lead time has given it a structural advantage — and left Western buyers increasingly exposed to a tightening prompt market.

The implication is that the price impact in the West is delayed, not absent. As US refiners begin competing for a diminished pool of available crude in the May and June trade cycles, the physical price pressure that Asia has already absorbed will begin to materialise in Western benchmarks.

Asia is buying crude, but the West has not felt the full impact yet

USGC implied fixtures to Asia, mb

Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

The disconnect between physical crude prices and benchmark product prices pushed refining margins deeply negative in several regions. European margins weakened heavily month on month for the May planning cycle. Asian refiners are running for security of supply rather than margin, but even that approach has limits.

This is the mechanism through which the physical-paper gap eventually closes. Crude prices at current benchmark levels cannot sustain refinery operations when physical input costs are $40–50/bbl higher than the screen suggests. Either product prices must rise to restore margins, or crude benchmarks must fall to reflect the margin destruction — or, most likely, a combination of both, with products doing the next leg of the work.

Refining margins are the transmission mechanism

The physical and paper markets will converge. They always do. But the path and timing depend on several variables that remain uncertain: the pace of Hormuz transit recovery, the duration of Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases that are currently masking the tightness, and whether product prices rise fast enough to restore refining incentives before stocks reach critically low levels.

What is clear is that benchmark crude prices alone are an insufficient guide to the actual state of oil market fundamentals. Participants relying solely on the futures screen risk underestimating the severity of the current disruption — and the scale of the price adjustment that may still be ahead.

This analysis draws on Energy Aspects’ latest webinar ‘Hormuz transit – exploring the new normal for energy markets,’ recorded 16 April 2026, featuring Dr Amrita Sen (Founder and Director of Market Intelligence), Richard Bronze (Head of Geopolitics) and Livia Gallarati (Head of Global Gas).

Why convergence is coming — but not overnight

Webinar on-demand: North American Gas and Power Outlook

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 09:22:15 GMT

What was covered in the webinar:

Energy Aspects’ summer outlook for North American gas ; including lower Henry Hub price forecasts , strong production growth, and expectations for end-October storage above 3.9 Tcf.
The supply outlook across the Lower 48; with production growth led by the Permian , additional gains from Haynesville, and limited growth from Appalachia due to pipeline constraints.
Conditions in the Permian gas market; including takeaway bottlenecks, higher flaring, negative Waha pricing, and the expected effect of new pipeline capacity from late 2026.
The outlook for LNG feedgas demand; including growth from Corpus Christi and Golden Pass, summer utilisation limits at US LNG terminals, and slower LNG demand growth than overall production growth.
Summer gas-to-power trends; with lower gas prices expected to support more coal-to-gas switching and a higher gas share in thermal generation.
Energy Aspects’ view on North American power markets; including load growth trends, the role of data centres , and the outlook for gas burn in PJM and ERCOT.
PJM market conditions; including generator outages, summer spark spreads, load growth in Dominion and AP, and the pricing effect of Virginia rejoining the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative from 1 July.
ERCOT market conditions; including softer summer pricing, the effect of real-time co-optimisation, continued load growth, and the growing role of batteries and solar in shaping evening peak prices.

Webinar recorded on 16 April 2026.

Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar:

Canadian Crude Trading Calendar 2026

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Stay on top of market-moving dates with Energy Aspects’ free 2026 Canadian Crude Trading Calendar. This essential resource helps market participants plan ahead with key crude oil market dates at a glance.

The calendar includes:

Physical trade window reference dates
Enbridge NOS due dates
IEA Oil Market Report (OMR)
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR)

Download your free copy today and stay ahead of market-moving dates

Download the calender

Please fill in your contact details to access the full insight.

Webinar on-demand: Hormuz transit - Exploring the new normal for energy markets

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 09:22:15 GMT

What was covered in the webinar:

The strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz for global energy markets, including crude , refined products , LNG , and LPG flows, and why disruption risk remains a key focus for market participants.
Energy Aspects’ latest view on the geopolitical and security backdrop in the Middle East, including how current tensions are affecting shipping, supply risk, and market pricing.
Scenario analysis on Hormuz transit disruption, covering the scale of upstream shut-ins, the pace of recovery, and why a return to normal flows is unlikely to be immediate.
The implications for oil balances and prices, including the role of SPR releases, the risk of tighter balances over a multi-year horizon, and why prices may remain higher for longer even if near-term flows improve.
The knock-on effects for regional crude and product markets , with discussion of European refining margins, diesel and jet tightness, Atlantic Basin gasoline balances, and the effect on deferred pricing.
The outlook for LNG exports and the use of satellite-based monitoring to track terminal activity and ramp-up trends.

Webinar recorded on 16 April 2026.

Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar:

Energy Aspects launches EA 360 – independent cross-market intelligence for investment professionals

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Energy Aspects has launched EA 360, a new enterprise intelligence platform designed for investment professionals who need a broader view across energy and macro markets. Bringing together four core research verticals in one place, EA 360 gives clients a clearer way to track the market forces shaping portfolios, strategy and risk.

A single-market or single-horizon view is no longer enough

Energy shapes markets far beyond the commodity complex. It influences inflation, rates, industrial activity, corporate earnings and geopolitical risk — often with direct implications for portfolios, trading strategies and broader market positioning. For investment professionals who need to track those connections, a single-market or single-horizon view is no longer enough.

Clients need timely intelligence on what is moving markets now, forward-looking analysis on what may come next, and longer-term insight into the structural themes shaping energy and the wider macro landscape.

Introducing EA 360

That is what EA 360 is built to deliver. EA 360 brings together Energy Aspects’ analysis and analytics across four research verticals — Oil, Natural Gas, Power & AI, Macro, and Geopolitics — through a single, integrated platform.

Built for clients who need a broader market view, EA 360 combines timely market intelligence, strategic insight and direct access to expertise through a single platform. It is designed to help users track developments, assess risk and identify opportunities across energy and the wider macro landscape.

Leading energy market intelligence and proprietary data

EA 360 is grounded in independent, objective analysis. Energy Aspects’ research is built on robust data, deep market expertise and a commitment to clarity, transparency and relevance, helping clients navigate complex markets with greater confidence.

Alongside expert analysis, EA 360 draws on Energy Aspects’ wider analytical capabilities, including satellite-derived earth observation, real-time Truck Traffic Indices and quant positioning signals. This helps clients connect commodity fundamentals with policy, positioning and broader market trends through a more complete cross-market view.

EA 360 is designed for investment professionals who need relevant, high-signal intelligence without relying solely on highly specialised single-commodity research. By bringing together analysis, curated signals and specialist insight in one place, it helps clients move more quickly from information to interpretation.

Verify, but don’t trust: Ceasefire holds, but Hormuz flows stay muted

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 09:22:15 GMT

The US–Iran ceasefire appears to be holding for now after a shaky start, but the process remains fragile. Markets should not become complacent, even as headlines point to a potential new round of negotiations later this week. While both sides are signalling readiness to resume fighting after the ceasefire expires (21 April), regional sources believe they would prefer a diplomatic off-ramp, which may require a further truce extension.

Strait of Hormuz tanker transits, total number of vessels

Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

The ceasefire has eased some immediate pressure in oil markets, but physical disruption remains severe. Iran and the US are now in a showdown over the Strait of Hormuz, with US Central Command having begun blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports. Overall, flows through Hormuz remain constrained, and until inbound traffic resumes, upstream production and refinery runs will struggle to recover.

We have cut Middle Eastern crude and condensate production by 10 mb/d in March versus our pre-conflict expectations, with the April shortfall now at 13 mb/d. Saudi Arabia’s confirmation of infrastructure-related capacity losses is a reminder of the precarity of supplies, even as the fighting is suspended.

Refining is also under pressure. We have raised our Iran conflict–related global run cuts to 6.6 mb/d for April and 3.8 mb/d for May and now expect cumulative global clean product supply losses to reach 330 mb by June. We remain constructive across the barrel, with gasoline, gasoil and jet supported by disrupted exports, falling inventories and resilient demand.

Oil

Total oil volumes stranded in the Middle East Gulf by origin country, mb

Source: Energy Aspects

We view TTF May-26 as broadly fair after last week’s selloff and remain bearish on bal-2026 . Asian demand cuts are doing much of the rebalancing, with regional demand this year around 12 Mt below our pre-conflict forecast, helping offset roughly 32 Mt of LNG losses from Hormuz disruptions, damage at Ras Laffan and delays to Qatar’s North Field East expansion.

That leaves Europe with more room to refill storage than the market expected. In our base case, with Hormuz transit recovering unevenly in May and Qatari liquefaction improving through the summer, we expect European inventories to reach 94 bcm by end-October, above the threshold needed for winter security.

Gas, power and AI

European net storage withdrawals, mcm/d

Source: GIE, Energy Aspects

We expect military US-Iran talks in Islamabad failed to reach an agreement, and President Trump announced a blockade on vessels attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, as well as plans to interdict any vessels that had paid a toll to Iran. Trump wants to deny Iran the leverage of maintaining its oil exports and some non-oil trade while controlling which other vessels can use the strait.

This will further strain the fragile two-week ceasefire, as a marathon round of talks failed to resolve disagreements over Iran’s uranium stockpiles, control of Hormuz, and the unfreezing of assets. President Trump is clearly losing patience, but Iran has repeatedly rejected US ultimatums, setting the scene for renewed escalation.operations to continue for at least another week, with the risk of a more protracted conflict remaining high. The situation is fluid, and any escalation or attack on key infrastructure could further disrupt energy flows and market stability.

Geopolitics

Equities, fixed income and FX are likely to keep taking their cue from crude as markets test the ceasefire. The growing sense that hostilities are ending should support the dollar selloff and the rally in equities and bonds, though gains may fade following the initial relief rally.

FX may see the more durable adjustment. Heavy dollar-buying since the conflict began leaves room for a broader reversal, while equities in Asia and Europe look better placed to rally than the S&P 500. Fixed income is less clear-cut. Central banks are likely to stay cautious, and higher energy prices should keep inflation concerns alive and limit the scope for 10-year Treasury yields to fall below 4%.

This article was first published on LinkedIn. For a deeper dive into this topic and to stay updated with our latest insights, you can access the full newsletter here.

Marco

Sean M. Maher on oil markets, Iran and the long path to normalisation

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 09:22:15 GMT

In our latest EA Forum podcast, recorded before the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, Amrita Sen , caught up with Sean M. Maher, VP, Investor Relations and Chief Economist at Phillips 66, to discuss the medium-term implications of the I ran conflict for oil markets and global energy balances, including:

How recent disruptions to global supply patterns have structurally disrupted the global balance.
Why a structurally short market in crude , products and natural gas has been made significantly tighter.
How the path to normalisation for crude runs to year-end , and longer still for products and natural gas.
Why US energy markets are well-positioned to provide hydrocarbons to the global economy.
How the value of reliable and diversified sources of supply continues to increase.
Why US energy infrastructure is critical to meeting growing global demand.

This podcast was first released for subscribers on 9 April 2026.

EA Forum

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Energy Aspects strengthens Refining Analytics with deeper refinery intelligence and market insight

Tue, 24 Mar 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Energy Aspects has developed one of the most granular and comprehensive refinery intelligence services available — operating at unit level across assets, operations and economics to deliver precision and actionable market insight. The service combines granular data, rigorous analytics and expert insight to drive decision-making with greater precision.

The upgraded service gives clients a dynamic view of the global refining system, combining asset data at unit level, operational intelligence, margin analytics and expert research in one place. Covering 969 active, retired and planned refineries worldwide and more than 10,000 units, Refining Analytics helps users monitor capacity, throughput, utilisation, maintenance, crude diets and yields with greater detail.

The enhanced platform also improves usability. A redesigned interface and upgraded set of visualisation tools make it easier to query data, compare trends and move between historic, current and forward-looking views. Daily updates across margins, maintenance, runs and capacity, alongside weekly API delivery , support faster analysis and easier integration into client workflows.

Refining Analytics is built around three connected pillars.

Refinery Assets

Refinery Assets forms the foundation of the service. This continuously maintained database of the global refining system captures refinery and unit-level capacity across historic, current and future states, enabling users to track how refining capacity is evolving by asset, region and market.

Refinery Operations

Built directly on that foundation, Refinery Operations tracks crude throughput, utilisation rates and maintenance activity, including more than 24,000 maintenance events since 2018. The service monitors both planned and unplanned turnarounds at unit and facility level using Energy Aspects’ in-house modelling, translating capacity data into operational visibility and more accurate market intelligence. Its operational coverage also links with Cargo Tracking to provide deeper insight into crude diets and product offtake across the refinery supply chain.

Refinery Economics

Refinery Economics helps clients connect refinery operations with indicative profitability, providing access to in excess of 2,000 margin indices across nine key trading regions, 40 refinery archetypes and key secondary unit margins. Split across feedstocks, refinery modes and configurations, these analytics help users assess how refiners are incentivised to run, compare configuration-specific economics and link refinery profitability with crude flows and product yields.

Underpinning all three pillars is a programme of regular, thematic and medium-term research from dedicated Energy Aspects analysts. The result is a fully integrated service that combines live data, rigorous analytics and expert insight into a single, coherent view of the global refining complex.

Jeff Currie on Iran, volatility and opportunities in undervalued assets

Wed, 18 Mar 2026 09:22:15 GMT

In our latest EA Forum podcast, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, Amrita Sen, caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects.

They discuss:

Disruptions and market denial in the immediate aftermath of the US/Israeli strikes on Iran.
How the ongoing conflict affects debates over energy dominance and leverage as part of US–China relations.
Iran’s asymmetric threats to the US and allies, and how the crisis is hitting credit markets and private equity.
Why the current oil market impact is Covid-19 in reverse.
And what Jeff is cautious on owning in the coming weeks and months, and what’s an easy buy.

This podcast was first released for subscribers on 13 March 2026.

EA Forum

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Energy Aspects agrees to acquire Kayrros

Thu, 12 Mar 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Market data and intelligence provider Energy Aspects agreed to acquire Kayrros, subject to regulatory approval.
Acquisition accelerates deployment of Kayrros geospatial technologies, data and solutions, while supporting Energy Aspects’ growth strategy.
The deal follows Energy Aspects’ acquisition of OilX, INAS, TankWatch and others.
The combined company will serve clients across energy and financial markets with a broader suite of data and technology-driven intelligence products.
Energy Aspects CEO Fredrik Fosse says the transaction reflects the company’s focus on combining market expertise with advanced data and technology to deliver deeper insights for clients worldwide.

LONDON, UK; PARIS, FR – 12 March 2026 – Market data and intelligence provider Energy Aspects have agreed to acquire Kayrros, the Paris-based, award-winning energy analytics and satellite data company.

This acquisition, which is subject to regulatory approval, supports Energy Aspects’ growth strategy and will expand its data and analytics capabilities. It follows the strategic integrations of OilX , INAS and TankWatch , among others.

By combining Energy Aspects’ market expertise and analysis with Kayrros’ capabilities in satellite-based monitoring and advanced analytics, the combined group will strengthen its position as a leading source of energy market data and analytics.

Kayrros’ strengths in geospatial proprietary data and machine learning will enhance Energy Aspects’ offering, enabling clients to benefit from more timely, actionable intelligence across the energy value chain. Such earth observation capabilities have proven particularly valuable during periods of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, including recent events in the Middle East, where rapid and unbiased geospatial data is critical for accurate market analysis.

Fredrik Fosse, CEO of Energy Aspects, said:

“The future of energy market intelligence will be shaped by data, technology and advanced analytics. Bringing Kayrros into Energy Aspects allows us to combine our deep market expertise with world-leading satellite and geospatial data capabilities.”

“Together we will accelerate innovation and deliver a new generation of data-driven insights to clients across energy and financial markets.”

Antoine Rostand, President and Co-founder of Kayrros, said: "Joining forces with Energy Aspects marks the start of a decisive new chapter for Kayrros."

"We share a firm belief that better data makes for better decisions and together we will move faster to provide more exact, more actionable energy intelligence."

"This will greatly improve our ability to innovate at speed and redefine what clients can expect from energy data and intelligence.”

Upon completion of the transaction, the combined group will serve clients across energy and financial markets with a broader suite of proprietary data and technology-driven intelligence products.

For media enquiries, please contact: press@energyaspects.com

Energy Aspects is a leading provider of real-time market data and intelligence solutions, redefining how global energy and macro markets are understood. Founded in 2012, the company has evolved from a research house into a data and technology–driven energy commodity markets intelligence leader. Through continuous innovation, Energy Aspects integrates human insight, proprietary data and advanced analytics to deliver actionable intelligence at market speed.

Strategic acquisitions and ongoing investments in AI and technology have deepened the company’s expertise and broadened its capabilities, enabling clients to navigate every market shift.

Energy Aspects is headquartered in London, with offices in New York, Houston, Singapore, Dubai, Riyadh, Kolkata, Tokyo and Athens. For more information visit energyaspects.com.

About Energy Aspects

Founded in 2016, Kayrros is the world leader in energy and environmental intelligence. It uses AI, advanced machine learning and geoanalytics to turn raw data from more than 20 satellite constellations into actionable insights on energy, supply chains, physical risks, nature and the environment. Kayrros works with businesses and governments to make energy systems more efficient, improve supply security, boost climate resilience and manage environmental impacts while enabling investors, insurers, traders and other stakeholders to make faster, smarter decisions.

Kayrros is headquartered in Paris and has offices in Houston, New York, London, Bangalore and Singapore. For more information visit kayrros.com.

About Kayrros

Rising tide strands all boats: Conflict in the Middle East upends global markets

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Global energy prices have soared as US and Israeli strikes on Iran—and the ensuing regional fallout—have thrown global energy security into chaos. We expect disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to persist into at least mid-March, severely constraining flows of crude, refined products and LNG, suggesting further upside across markets.

Price discovery has become extremely challenging, with spot jet fuel and LNG prices surging to record highs amid mounting uncertainty, while crude is quickly catching up. The risk of further military escalation remains high, and markets are grappling with the prospect of prolonged supply disruptions, particularly as Asian and European buyers scramble to secure alternative supplies.

We expect Middle Eastern upstream shut-ins to accelerate as transit through the Strait of Hormuz remains halted, disrupting flows of both crude and refined products. We expect Middle East Gulf producers to continue shutting in production, with shut-ins already above 4 mb/d. Asian and Middle Eastern refiners are cutting runs, and we expect diesel to outperform gasoline. We see further upside for jet fuel prices.

Oil

Middle East Gulf crude exports to Asia, mb/d

Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

We see European gas and LNG markets pricing in a month-long loss of Qatari exports, with spot prices surging to multi-year highs. We expect extended disruption would drive prices even higher, forcing Asian buyers to draw down inventories, switch to coal or ration gas. European gas fundamentals are particularly exposed to further shocks due to limited flexibility and low stocks. We note that US LNG exports are already near capacity and unable to fully offset lost supply.

Natural Gas

European LNG sendout, bcm

Source: EA LNG Cargo Tracking, Energy Aspects

We expect military operations to continue for at least another week, with the risk of a more protracted conflict remaining high. The situation is fluid, and any escalation or attack on key infrastructure could further disrupt energy flows and market stability.

Geopolitics

Financial markets initially priced in a short-lived conflict, but the risk of a deeper equity selloff and a stronger dollar is rising as fighting drags on. Safe-haven flows could push Treasury yields lower and increase volatility across asset classes. Asia faces risks from higher energy prices, while Europe’s industry is only just recovering from the loss of cheap Russian gas. These pressures support the US dollar’s safe-haven status.

This article was first published on LinkedIn. For a deeper dive into this topic and to stay updated with our latest insights, you can access the full newsletter here.

Marco

Your one-stop shop for real-time global energy market data and intelligence

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 09:22:15 GMT

The escalating Iran conflict is severely disrupting energy markets, especially shipping, with freight rates skyrocketing, complicating refining margins. From even before the conflict began, Energy Aspects has helped clients navigate the risks.

20th February 2026 – Geopolitical Outlook

February’s Geopolitical Outlook highlighted to EA clients that US strikes on Iran were increasingly likely, and Iran may try to disrupt Hormuz transits if it felt in an existential battle.

Read below an excerpt from the Outlook report:

Iran is no match for US firepower, but it would aim to absorb initial strikes and suck the US into a longer war of attrition using asymmetric capabilities, such as missile and drone swarms and maritime sea-denial tactics, directed by dispersed command and control. Facing a potentially existential campaign—especially if domestic protests reignite—Iran could be motivated to raise costs to the US by impeding energy transit through Hormuz. Given that threat, it is likely that any initial US campaign will include strikes against IRGC naval and short-range missile assets.

23rd February 2026 – Perspectives

In last week’s Perspectives, we reiterated that rising tensions in the Middle East were heightening risks to energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz . We noted that the US would likely seek to neutralise Iran’s naval and ballistic missile capabilities, and while this could limit prolonged disruptions, the risk of sporadic attacks on regional energy infrastructure would persist.

Read below an excerpt from the Perspectives report:

Brent 25-Delta options skew

Source: Energy Aspects

On top of this, the Middle East region is more fragile, and the vulnerability of oil volumes transiting the Strait of Hormuz cannot be entirely discounted.

Facing a potentially existential campaign—especially if domestic protests reignite—Iran could be motivated to raise costs to the US by impeding energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This risk is likely to lead to caution among shippers in the early days of any conflict.

The potential Iranian threat against Hormuz means that the early stages of any US campaign are likely to include a focus on neutralising IRGC naval and short-range missile assets. US early success against such targets would limit the potential for any sustained halt in regional oil and LNG transit . But the US will find it harder to eliminate any risk of one-off attacks by Iran or proxy groups, given the wide range of potential targets across the region not just disrupting transit flows alone.

27th February 2026 – EA Live (19:12)

US–Iran tensions dominate into weekend, but physical market struggling

Crude strengthened ahead of the weekend yet again with US–Iran risks driving reluctance to hold shorts, but weakening fundamentals leave the market poised for a Monday selloff if there is no Iran strike.

Today, President Trump said he was “not happy” with how Iran was negotiating, but noted “we haven’t made a final decision”. We maintain that all outcomes remain possible, and that despite new technical talks scheduled for next week, progress towards a deal that meets minimum US demands has been insufficient.

April-26 Brent expires today, with the first four windows averaging around $0.05/bbl backwardation. However, physical markets continue to weaken, and Forties sold at Dated -$0.85/bbl, the first benchmark cargo to change hands at a negative differential this year.

That’s all for this week, but we’ll post on Sunday following the OPEC8+ meeting. We expect members to agree to resume unwinding voluntary production cuts in April.

28th February 2026 – EA Live (13:11)

Broad strikes on Iran start conflict that could extend for weeks

The US and Israel have launched broad military strikes against targets across Iran, following weeks of tension as we have been warning. Early indications are these included military and regime leadership sites (reportedly including the Supreme Leader’s office) and even Kharg Island, although it is unclear at this stage whether the naval base was the target and if this will disrupt Iranian oil exports.

Qatar has temporarily suspended maritime navigation. Numerous other precautions are being taken across the region including flight diversions/cancellations.

We maintain our view that the campaign launched today will be a more sustained and significant operation than last June’s US-Israeli strikes. Over recent weeks, the US military has built up a regional presence that can sustain high-intensity operations for weeks, including refuelling aircraft that could support strike missions by well over 200 warplanes. US plans likely include scope to escalate further depending on Iran’s reaction.

Iran is no match for US firepower but would aim to absorb initial strikes and suck the US into a longer war of attrition using asymmetric capabilities.
We maintain Iran could be motivated to impede energy transit through the Strait of Hormuz as it is likely to view this as an existential crisis.
Iran has already launched retaliatory missile attacks on Israel and US bases in neighbouring countries such as the UAE, Qatar, Iraq and Kuwait.

Our next post will focus in more depth on the initial energy market risks and impacts of the conflict.

Strait of Hormuz oil, products and LNG flows, indicative export volumes by country, 2025 avg

Note: Indicative, rounded volumes. Oil products include LPG. Excludes non-seaborne exports.

Source: OilX, LNG Cargo Tracking, Energy Aspects

28th February 2026 – EA Live (14:13)

Assessment of initial energy market impacts from Iran conflict

Here is our assessment of the initial energy-related impacts of the conflict as of 2 p.m. GMT on 28 February:

No reports of strikes on oil and gas fields or refineries across the Middle East so far. Israel has ordered precautionary shutdowns of the 12 bcm/y Leviathan and 8 bcm/y Karish gas fields, and the 0.20 mb/d Bazian refinery.
We have not yet seen any indications that an explosion on Kharg Island, reported in local media, will affect Iranian oil exports. We will provide a full assessment tomorrow once more satellite imagery is available.
Some shippers are halting oil and LNG tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz for at least the next few days, while other vessels continue moving for now. Extensive AIS spoofing and GPS jamming likely during the conflict.
The Houthis have announced plans to immediately resume maritime attacks in the Red Sea, which is likely to increase war risk premiums.
OPEC8+ meets tomorrow and will seek to reassure the oil market . We expect the group will announce larger target increase for April (0.41–0.55 mb/d) than we previously anticipated as a precaution. Saudi Arabia may also confirm its contingency plans are already in effect.

1st March 2026 – EA Live (13:40)

Iran conflict in intense phase, extending shipper caution through Hormuz

The Iranian conflict remains in an intense phase, with US and Israeli strikes on Iran continuing and Iran firing missiles and drone barrages at targets across the region. Tankers and other vessels have increasingly halted transits through the Strait of Hormuz. UKMTO has so far today (1 March) reported incidents that appear to involve IRGC attacks on two vessels, although these have not officially been confirmed yet (more on this later). These attacks are likely to strengthen and extend shipper caution, increasing the disruption to energy trade flows.

Meanwhile, Iran named a transitional council to project leadership continuity despite the killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei. There are no clear signs of fracturing within Iran’s military leadership or evidence that reported losses among the IRGC’s high command have significantly degraded Iran’s ability or willingness to respond militarily.

Both the US and Israel have said strikes will continue for at least several more days. Alongside strikes on Iran’s retaliatory capacity, Israel has shifted aerial operations to intense sorties against regime targets inside Tehran.

1st March 2026 – EA Live (18:58)

Gas prices to rally on Iran conflict; JKM-TTF should widen

Gas prices will likely rally at the open today as the Iran conflict is disrupting some LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz. CTA flows could exacerbate TTF price moves, as mean strategy distance to flipping is at zero according to our Quant team.

Together Qatar and UAE typically export more than 7 Mt/m of LNG via Hormuz (20% of global supply). About 85% of these volumes have flowed to Asia in recent months. As such, the JKM may rise more than the TTF initially, widening JKM–TTF spreads.

Israel has temporarily halted production at the 12 bcm/y Leviathan and 8 bcm/y Karish gas fields, and has stopped pipeline supplies to Egypt (0.9 bcm/month). Egypt could fuel-switch to fuel oil and curtail industry. The country also has capacity to raise spot LNG imports by up to 1 bcm in March but may not be willing to pay premiums. An interruption to Turkish pipeline gas imports from Iran (0.5 bcm/month) could also increase LNG demand.

Europe has little buffer to withstand a prolonged pull from Asia on Atlantic basin alternatives. Disruptions to Italy and Poland’s contractual deliveries from Qatar pose some upside to regional basis prices.

2nd March 2026 – EA Live (08:51)

Upside for oil prices as attacks on Middle East energy assets reported

Oil prices jumped at the open and have further upside from current levels as the market responds to the conflict in the Middle East.

Late yesterday (1 March), President Donald Trump indicated the US military campaign could last for up to four weeks. Earlier this morning, senior Iranian official Ali Larijani rejected negotiations with the US. Diplomatic efforts will continue, and events can shift quickly. But the chances of a swift resolution that avoids supply disruptions has fallen. Accordingly, Asia is likely to buy alternative crudes rather than remain on the sidelines, driving freight higher.

The direct impact on energy fundamentals is also growing. Strait of Hormuz flows have declined sharply, with four tankers attacked to date. Energy infrastructure is also sustaining damage. Saudi Arabia’s 0.55 mb/d Ras Tanura refinery was struck by an Iranian drone this morning, and unconfirmed reports indicate damage to refineries in Kuwait and Iran. We will provide further updates throughout the day.

2nd March 2026 – EA Live (10:56)

Crude options flows muted by uncertainty

Brent M1 25-day skew, %

Source: Energy Aspects

The volatility response in crude options this morning has been surprisingly muted given

the elevated positioning. This is partly explained by the already extreme levels of volatility and skew, which we have reported on previously.

The volatility response has almost exactly tracked the skew expectations for near-the-money options, which indicates that flows so far are light and there is no sign yet of either profit-taking on long call positions or panic covering of shorts.

On the gamma front, the reaction has been more painful for our dealer portfolio. Daily at-the-money breakevens sat at approximately $2.75/bbl on Friday (27 February). Since the close, the price path has extended beyond $21/bbl, far more than the breakeven expectations. Actual P&L implications for this depend on the performance of the trader (or algorithm) executing the hedging, but it is likely to have been an uncomfortable ride.

2nd March 2026 – EA Live (17:37)

Qatar condensate, NGLs and GTL output curtailed by Ras Laffan halt

Ras Laffan suspended LNG production prior to today’s drone attack due to ongoing maritime disruptions inside the Strait of Hormuz, primarily driven by limited storage capacity to maintain liquefaction rates. Qatar’s condensate production, averaging around 0.75 mb/d, is highly centralised at Ras Laffan and is largely linked to LNG trains for export, with current LNG-linked output estimated at 0.6 mb/d.

Gas processing plant (GPP) capacity in the Ras Laffan area adds a further 0.15 mb/d of condensate, of which 30–50 kb/d is used domestically. We expect condensate production could fall to around 0.1 mb/d, while Ras Laffan LNG operations are suspended, as some GPP volumes enter storage. LPG production, which is entirely exported, may drop by 0.28 mb/d.

Ras Laffan refinery operates two condensate splitters, each with 0.15 mb/d capacity, producing 0.13 mb/d naphtha, 85 kb/d jet and 54 kb/d diesel—risking naphtha and middle distillate exports. Oryx 32 kb/d GTL facility will also likely cease operations.

2nd March 2026 – EA Live (19:20)

US–Iran conflict: Impacted energy infrastructure

Drone and missile strikes across the Middle East are impacting energy infrastructure, but so far confirmed outages have been limited. Port infrastructure handling a total of 2.3 mb/d of liquids flow has been targeted, but latest information suggests minimal disruption. The risk to shipping is more evident, with five tankers confirmed hit so far and several operators suspending Hormuz transits entirely, although this is in part due to AIS jamming. Several oil fields in Iraqi Kurdistan have been precautionarily shut, with a combined production loss of 0.2 mb/d, reducing flows to the Ceyhan terminal in Turkey. Fields in Southern Iraq may also have to shut production if Basrah loadings have to slow or stop as ships are unable to traverse the Strait of Hormuz.

Qatar’s condensate production could fall by 0.6 mb/d and LPG by 0.28 mb/d due to the Ras Laffan LNG shutdown.

Impacted Middle East energy infrastructure

Note: Shut down is precautionary closure

Source: Energy Aspects

Webinar on-demand: Oil markets and the Iran conflict

Wed, 04 Mar 2026 09:22:15 GMT

What was covered in the webinar:

Geopolitical escalation in the Middle East: Analysis of the US–Israel–Iran conflict, including military strikes, retaliatory actions, and threats to regional energy infrastructure.
Major supply and shipping disruptions: Updates on refinery and LNG shutdowns, halted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact on global oil and gas trade routes.
Market and price impacts: Examination of sharp moves in oil, gas, and product prices, surging freight rates, and the challenges facing refiners and traders.
OPEC+ and spare capacity: Discussion of limited ability for OPEC+ and US shale to offset lost supply, and implications for market balances and future price risks.
Real-time data and scenario outlook: Use of satellite monitoring and EA Live updates to track developments, with scenario analysis on how the conflict could evolve and affect energy markets.

Webinar recorded on 3 March 2026.

Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar:

JKM–TTF front-month spread rises: Energy Aspects’ bullish call validated

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 09:22:15 GMT

In early 2026, the global LNG market was closely watching the JKM–TTF front-month spread, which had been averaging around Qatari shipping differentials. At this level, all flexible Atlantic and Middle Eastern cargoes would be incentivised to head to Europe rather than Asia. Many market participants expected the spread to remain subdued, but Energy Aspects identified several factors pointing to a likely increase.

The call: EA Live Market Update – February 2026

Throughout the start of 2026, Energy Aspects maintained a bullish stance on the JKM–TTF front-month spread, consistently highlighting that the spread needed to rise from Qatari to West African shipping differentials. Our analysis emphasised that, with reduced nuclear availability in South Korea, Asia continues to rely on Middle Eastern and some flexible West African cargoes to balance. As we stated: "We still think the JKM–TTF front-month spread needs to rise to prevent Middle Eastern or even Pacific cargoes from being diverted to Europe".

JKM–TTF spreads, LNG freight differentials, $/MMBtu

Source: CME, Fearnleys, Argus Media Group, Energy Aspects

Proprietary analysis and real-time monitoring

Our view was grounded in our underlying supply and demand analysis. Even as our Pacific balance tightened the previous week and loosened this week, we maintained that the market front-month was still priced too low. We regularly update our balances, and while we recently revised Chinese LNG demand down by 0.8 Mt, our bullish call on the JKM–TTF front-month spread was not driven by week-to-week balance changes. Instead, our view remains that the market front-month was still underpriced, given broader structural factors such as ongoing nuclear maintenance in South Korea and Asia’s continued reliance on Middle Eastern and some flexible West African cargoes to balance. Additionally, proprietary cargo tracking showed a lower-than-average share of West African and US LNG heading east of Suez, supporting our view that the spread would need to widen to attract more flexible cargoes. Our analysis of shipping differentials and freight costs reinforced this perspective.

Market moves in line with EA’s forecast

Recently, the JKM–TTF front-month spread rose above our forecast, validating our bullish call. The increase reflected the need for Asia to maintain its imports from the Middle East and attract some flexible West African cargoes, just as we had anticipated. Our clients were able to position ahead of the move, benefiting from timely, actionable intelligence.

Why this matters

For LNG traders, portfolio managers, and market analysts, anticipating shifts in regional price spreads is critical for optimising cargo flows and managing risk. Energy Aspects’ real-time, data-driven analysis provided a clear signal before the market reacted, helping clients capture value and stay ahead of shifting trade dynamics.

EA’s unique value

Energy Aspects’ Global LNG service delivers timely, actionable insight powered by proprietary analytics, near real-time cargo tracking , and deep market expertise. Our ability to cut through market noise and anticipate key price moves reinforces our reputation as a trusted partner in LNG market intelligence.

Stay ahead with Energy Aspects

For a deeper dive into our global LNG analysis, request a trial or subscribe to our research services.

This insight was originally published for EA Clients on 17 February 2026.

Energy Aspects Conference 2026: What’s next for energy?

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

The following insights, drawn from the session “What happened, what’s next for energy?” moderated by Dr. Amrita Sen (Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, Energy Aspects) at the Energy Aspects Conference 2026 in late February, were captured prior to the recent conflict involving Iran and the wider Middle East, which has since significantly impacted global energy markets. Our analysis will continue to evolve as events unfold.

Oil and gas remain central to the energy system, but demand patterns are shifting.
Gas is positioned as a “destination fuel” for decades, particularly in emerging Asia.
Policy stability and pragmatic investment are essential for progress.
Geopolitics and technology, from agentic AI to LNG, are reshaping the sector.
Increased capital, infrastructure, and talent are needed to meet rising demand and ensure energy security.

Key Insights

In our inaugural panel, Dr. Amrita Sen welcomed former U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette (Co-Chair, Torridon Group), Patrick Pouyanné (Chairman and CEO, TotalEnergies), and Lorenzo Simonelli (Chairman and CEO, Baker Hughes) for an engaging discussion on the shifting global energy landscape.

Patrick Pouyanné described how Total’s focus has evolved from historically concentrating on supply to increasingly shifting attention towards demand. He emphasised that oil and gas will remain the pillars of the energy system, an approach that has drawn criticism from European policymakers. In 2020, 27% of shareholders were French; today, that figure is down to 13%, replaced largely by US investors. He highlighted the need for pragmatic policy and investment across the full value chain, including LNG and batteries.

Lorenzo Simonelli positioned gas as a destination fuel, vital for decades to come, especially in emerging Asia. He called this the decade of gas, projecting a 20% growth in demand by 2040. At Baker Hughes, the focus is on “The Energy Equation”—balancing molecules and electrons, not just one or the other. He stressed the importance of abundant, reliable energy sources and investment in technology and talent, noting that agentic AI is just starting and has a huge runway to help lower costs and drive efficiency. He also highlighted the challenge of attracting young talent in engineering and science, which is critical for future innovation.

The panel also addressed geopolitics, noting that global energy markets remain highly sensitive to events in Iran, Venezuela, and Russia. Russia is unique due to the invasion of Ukraine and ongoing war in Europe, which has had a devastating impact on global markets. Patrick added that Europe is unlikely to return to Russian gas, even if peace is restored, while Lorenzo pointed out that energy security will remain a top priority for countries like China and India, who are investing in new LNG capacity and technology.

All panelists agreed that energy transitions are complex , non-linear, and require pragmatic, flexible approaches. Investment in infrastructure, technology, and people will be essential to meet rising demand, ensure energy security, and navigate the rapidly changing geopolitical environment.

Energy Aspects Conference 2026: Policy, reliability, and American energy influence

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Insights in this post are drawn from the session: Policy perspectives on reliability, nuclear, and American energy influence at the Energy Aspects Conference 2026.

The U.S. grid’s resilience during Winter Storm Fern, thanks to proactive planning and coordination.
Nuclear energy’s growing role, with a focus on bringing retired plants back online and scaling Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
The U.S. as a global energy stabiliser, with agentic AI and infrastructure revival driving future competitiveness.
The need for policy certainty and legislative guardrails to support long-term investment in LNG and pipelines.
“Energy dominance” depends on both traditional baseload power and next-generation nuclear and AI-driven efficiencies.

Key Insights

In a wide-ranging policy panel moderated by Majida Mourad (Founder, M2M Advisors), James P. Danly (Deputy Secretary, U.S. Department of Energy) was joined by Representatives Darrell Issa and Randy Weber for a comprehensive discussion on domestic energy reliability , the nuclear renaissance, and the geopolitical weight of American exports .

James P. Danly opened by detailing the administration’s proactive response to Winter Storm Fern. He highlighted that while the grid faced nearly one million outages at its peak, the system avoided transmission failures or blackout orders due to the pre-positioning of 65,000 utility workers and the coordination of generators to operate beyond normal limits. However, he flagged New England’s continued vulnerability regarding fuel supplies. Turning to long-term strategy, Danly emphasised that “energy dominance” requires stripping away regulatory burdens—specifically citing Section 403 petitions to FERC—to address capacity shortages in markets like PJM. He positioned nuclear energy as the administration’s second largest priority, focusing on bringing retired plants back online and scaling Small Modular Reactors (SMRs), which offer a simpler, faster alternative to gigawatt-scale projects.

Rep. Darrell Issa focused on the role of the U.S. as a global stabiliser, noting the “amazing transformation” from the energy scarcity of the 1970s to the U.S. becoming the world’s leading exporter. He argued that for sanctions against adversaries to be effective, the U.S. must provide viable alternatives, such as bringing existing Venezuelan infrastructure back online. Issa also highlighted the untapped potential in Syria for U.S. producers and noted that agentic AI will be a primary driver in lowering costs by optimising resource identification and extraction. He warned, however, that America must remain a “reliable, predictable partner” for Europe to maintain its geopolitical influence.

Rep. Randy Weber echoed the need for affordability and reliability, noting that Texas has seen falling energy prices. He criticised past administration policies restricting LNG , which he argued have directly hurt economic activity in his district. Weber called for legislative guardrails to prevent future administrations from unilaterally terminating pipeline permits, providing the industry with the long-term certainty required for major capital investments. He noted the industry is “cautiously optimistic” about opportunities in Venezuela.

Throughout the discussion, the panelists returned to the theme that “energy dominance” requires a dual focus: maintaining the scale of traditional baseload power while aggressively pursuing the next generation of nuclear and AI-driven efficiencies. The consensus was clear—domestic policy, from North Dakota’s scalable projects to the revitalisation of the nuclear supply chain, is the foundation upon which American energy security and international credibility are built.

Energy Aspects Conference 2026: The scale and future of the US resource

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Insights in this post are drawn from the session: The U.S. resource – How big is it?, moderated by Dr. Amrita Sen (Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, Energy Aspects) at the Energy Aspects Conference 2026.

The Permian basin is now producing half of the US’s oil and gas, making it the country’s most valuable resource.
The US holds a vast surplus of natural gas—up to 60 bcf/d—supporting both domestic and global energy security.
Only a fraction of the US’s estimated 3.5 trillion barrels of oil resources is currently being recovered, with innovation and improved recovery techniques set to unlock further potential.
Shale economics remain challenging, with $60–65/bbl needed to maintain output and $70+ required for growth.
AI is driving operational efficiency and meeting rising demand, but infrastructure bottlenecks and regulatory uncertainty persist.
Continued investment and policy support are essential for the US to maintain its role as a global energy leader.

Key Insights

The U.S. has been the driving force behind global liquids growth for the past 15 years, and the outlook remains robust. During this session, Vicki Hollub (CEO, Occidental) , Toby Z. Rice (President and CEO, EQT Corporation) , Scott Sheffield (Founder, Pioneer Natural Resources) , Mike Sommers (CEO, American Petroleum Institute) , and Laura Swett (Chairman, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission) explored the scale of the U.S. resource base and what it means for the future of energy security.

The Permian basin was described as the best resource the U.S. has ever had, now producing half of the country’s oil and half of its gas. The panel emphasised that natural gas is central to both domestic and global energy security, with the U.S. holding a potentially vast surplus — up to 60 bcf/d, still available. As gas-to-oil ratios continue to rise, natural gas output is expected to increase even if oil production remains flat.

Estimates suggest the U.S. holds around 230 billion barrels of conventional oil and 100 billion barrels of shale oil, with a total resource, including offshore, potentially as high as 3.5 trillion barrels. However, the panel noted that only a fraction of these resources are currently being recovered. Improving recovery rates, particularly from shale, is a priority. Primary production from shale is only around 10–11%, but this can be enhanced through techniques such as CO₂ injection, which could lift recovery to 20%.

The economics of U.S. shale remain challenging. The panel discussed that prices below $55 per barrel would likely see production declines, while $60–65 per barrel is needed to maintain output. To grow and offset declines elsewhere, prices of $70 or more are required. At present, only about 25% of what is produced is being replaced, highlighting the need for continued investment and innovation.

Innovation in drilling and operational productivity has been critical in keeping U.S. energy affordable. The speakers highlighted that American producers are incentivised to keep meeting demand, and that AI is playing an increasingly important role. Not only is AI helping to optimise field operations and extraction efficiency, but it is also contributing to rising energy demand through the expansion of data centres.

However, infrastructure remains a significant bottleneck. The panel pointed to regulatory uncertainty and red tape as major obstacles, with billions of dollars’ worth of pipeline projects cancelled in recent years. While the current administration has made progress through permitting reform, further action is needed to ensure sufficient power generation and to maintain consistent policy support for long-term investment.

Looking ahead, the panel expressed optimism about the future of the U.S. energy sector. The country is well positioned to provide energy security globally, and continued advances in technology and recovery techniques, particularly the application of AI, are expected to unlock further potential for the industry.

Energy Aspects Conference 2026: Global market dynamics

Thu, 26 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

These insights are drawn from the session “Global market dynamics,” moderated by moderated by Dr. Amrita Sen (Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, Energy Aspects) at the Energy Aspects Conference 2026. Please note that this discussion took place before the recent conflict involving Iran and the wider Middle East, which has since significantly impacted global energy markets. Our analysis will continue to evolve as events unfold.

Volatility driven by event risk and geopolitical tensions is reshaping trading strategies and risk management.
Options markets are increasingly used to price risk premiums amid binary geopolitical risks.
US gas market volatility is likely to remain elevated, with storage and LNG exports as key drivers.
The oil market faces uncertainty from Middle East tensions, with potential policy shifts on the horizon.
Analytical rigour and flexibility are essential for navigating today’s complex market environment.

Key Insights

In this session, David D’Alessandro (Founder and CIO, CMDTY Capital Management), Sebastian Barrack (Head of Commodities, Citadel) , Ben Marshall (President and CEO, Vitol Americas), and Richard Bronze (Head of Geopolitics, Energy Aspects) explored the shifting landscape of global energy markets, focusing on the interplay between price volatility, geopolitical risk, and market fundamentals.

The panel agreed that volatility driven by event risk and geopolitical tensions has required a more analytical approach to understanding the market. While volatility creates opportunity, the significant levels of uncertainty from event risk in recent years have made it more challenging for market participants to trade with conviction. The speakers noted that options markets are increasingly being used to price risk premiums, especially in the face of binary geopolitical risks. In this environment, probability assessments and a detailed understanding of the potential impact on production and defence capabilities are more important than ever.

Turning to the gas market, the speakers highlighted that storage requirements in the US are likely to keep volatility elevated, particularly as LNG exports grow and cold snaps increase demand. The outlook for US gas was described as relatively unexciting, with a bias to the downside in the near term. It was noted that producers have become far more responsive to price signals.

On oil, the panel warned of the military build-up in the Middle East, which has since escalated. However, they expect the market to weaken later in the year. There was also discussion around the potential for a Trump administration to use policy levers, such as sanctions relief, to lower oil prices if needed.

Overall, the session underscored the importance of understanding both the structural and event-driven forces shaping global energy markets. Analytical rigour and flexibility remain essential for navigating the current environment.

Waha delivered cash price forecast: Permian gas pipeline maintenance and 2026 outlook

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

In early 2025, the North American gas market was bracing for a turbulent spring. The Permian Basin, a key driver of US gas supply , faced a wave of scheduled pipeline maintenance. Market participants were hopeful that new capacity, particularly from the Matterhorn Express pipeline, would ease constraints and support Waha prices. However, the risk of persistent bottlenecks and negative pricing loomed large, especially as maintenance season approached. The dynamics presented last spring provide a clear indicator of the challenges that Waha prices and Permian production continue to face in early 2026.

EA Live market update – 7 April 2025

On 7 April 2025, Energy Aspects issued a clear warning: “Permian pipeline maintenance scheduled to peak in late April will push Waha to negative delivered prices this month.” Our analysis highlighted that, despite the addition of new pipeline capacity, the Matterhorn Express was already flowing full, and further maintenance outages would depress Permian gas production to 20 bcf/d in Q2 25. We forecast that Waha prices would average -$0.40/MMBtu in April and remain near or below zero through peak summer, with the risk of even deeper negative pricing in H1 26.

We also noted: “Permian gas capacity will remain constrained until H2 26’s new pipelines, with deeply negative Waha prices expected in Q2 26.” Our team flagged that the next meaningful relief would not arrive until mid-2026, when new projects such as the Gulf Coast Express expansion and the greenfield Hugh Brinson and Blackcomb pipelines are scheduled to come online.

Waha delivered cash price forecast, $/MMBtu

Source: Energy Aspects

Proprietary analysis and real-time monitoring

Our call was underpinned by a rigorous assessment of scheduled maintenance across all major Permian systems, including Permian Highway, NGPL, EPNG, Transwestern, GCX, and Northern Natural. We identified that capacity reductions would top 2 bcf/d in late April, coinciding with compression inspections and ongoing restrictions. Real-time monitoring of pipeline flows , combined with direct conversations with producers and operators, confirmed that the Matterhorn Express was already near full capacity, leaving no room for additional gas egress. Our analysis of construction updates for pipelines still in-development also pointed to a lack of long-term relief to this congestion until mid-2026.

We also leveraged our proprietary modelling to forecast the impact of these constraints on Permian production, NGL output, and Waha pricing. Our analysis anticipated that negative Waha prices would drive higher ethane recovery and slow NGL production growth, while also creating a take-or-pay dynamic that would support WTI-Midland spot differentials.

Market moves in line with EA’s forecast

Events unfolded exactly as predicted. Maintenance outages peaked in late April, pushing Waha delivered prices into negative territory. Waha dropped to negative delivered cash price over 18-21 April during the peak of maintenance, and again from 17-27 May. The Matterhorn Express pipeline remained full, confirming our view that new capacity would be quickly absorbed. Permian production declined to 20.2 bcf/d, with further downside risk through May. While the forward curve at the time indicated Waha delivered prices of close to $0.75/MMBtu for Q2 26, those prices have since dropped into negative territory, in line with our long-held forecast and validating our forward-looking call from 2025.

Why this matters

Clients who acted on our analysis were able to manage risk, optimise trading strategies, and capture value as Waha prices weakened and pipeline constraints persisted. Our timely updates provided a clear signal amid market noise, helping clients anticipate both the depth and duration of negative pricing.

EA’s unique value

Energy Aspects’ North America Gas service delivers actionable, data-driven intelligence powered by proprietary analytics and on-the-ground market engagement. Our real-time monitoring and direct industry conversations ensure clients receive the facts before the market reacts.

Stay ahead with Energy Aspects

For a deeper dive into our North American gas market analysis and to access the full report, request a trial or subscribe to our research services.

This insight was originally published for EA Clients on 7 April 2025.

The "global oversupply myth" and return of the old economy

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Energy Aspects Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, Dr Amrita Sen , caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects. In this episode:

Jeff unpicks the “global oversupply myth” and says rotating out of tech means a big commodity rally as the old economy returns.
He explains why commodity traders shouldn’t obsess on data, which leads them to miss opportunities and eventually get stopped out.
Jeff also gives listeners a sneak peek into his own portfolio, while detailing his views on precious metals, equities and AI.

This podcast was first released for subscribers on 17 February 2026.

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Energy Aspects launches global Cargo Tracking datasets on Snowflake Marketplace

Thu, 19 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

At Energy Aspects, we remain committed to investing in differentiated market intelligence and modernising how our clients access and deploy our data. Our global cargo tracking datasets are now available on Snowflake Marketplace , marking the first release in a broader expansion that clients will see throughout this year.

As the energy landscape evolves and commodity markets handle increasingly complex and discrete datasets, the gap between data acquisition and actionable insight must continue to narrow. Delivering through Snowflake Marketplace enables clients to ingest data directly into production environments, accelerating the time from data investment to analytical impact, with deeper integration within our clients’ ecosystems.

Energy Aspects’ Cargo Tracking provides comprehensive, near real-time visibility into the global movement of crude oil, refined products, and LNG. With timely, reconciled and validated data, users gain continuous insight across, trade flows and market dynamics. By making this data available via Snowflake Marketplace, clients benefit from instant accessibility, scalability, and seamless integration into their analytics workflows.

This launch represents just the beginning. Cargo tracking is the first step in our broader platform strategy to deliver more of Energy Aspects data through cloud-native channels, creating a foundation for deeper analytics and automation across commodity markets. We look forward to introducing additional datasets and capabilities throughout the year, further supporting our clients’ need for timely, actionable intelligence.

Energy Aspects Cargo Tracking Snowflake FAQs

Henry Hub: Positioning Signals Ahead of the Flow-Driven January Squeeze

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Energy Aspects’ Quant Gas research identified the structural risks behind January’s dramatic Henry Hub rally—before the move unfolded. Discover how financial flows, systematic positioning, and a well-timed weather catalyst combined to drive the largest price surge since 2022.

Download now to discover:

Why Henry Hub was structurally short at the start of January, with CTAs at maximum short and discretionary shorts clustered at key price levels.
How a cold weather revision triggered a mechanical squeeze, forcing rapid short covering and systematic buying.
The role of negative dealer gamma at the $5/MMBtu strike in amplifying volatility and fuelling the rally.
How Quant Gas integrates real-time positioning, CTA modelling, and dealer exposure mapping to identify asymmetric risks and optimise trading strategies.

Download the full Henry Hub case study PDF

Please fill in your contact details to access the full insight.

Energy Aspects' crude oil geopolitical risk index

Mon, 16 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

AI-driven analysis of EA research and financial market volatility

Geopolitics has firmly taken centre stage since the start of the year, with developments impacting the oil market from multiple directions. As Richard Bronze, Head of Geopolitics at Energy Aspects, highlighted at our IE Week reception, Energy Aspects' crude oil geopolitical risk index is now registering the longest sustained period of elevated levels seen in several years.

There are two key drivers behind this trend. First, the sheer number of concurrent events, from Iran to Venezuela, means the market is constantly having to assess and price in a range of scenarios. Second, and most importantly, unlike previous periods where geopolitical risk was largely about potential tail risks, we are now witnessing real supply disruptions. CPC outages which has led to a drop in light crude availability, Venezuelan blockades and the build-up of sanctioned Russian barrels. This is no longer just about potential tail risks, it is a story of concrete supply disruptions directly impacting the crude oil market.

What is the EA crude oil geopolitical risk index?

The EA crude oil geopolitical risk index is based on sentiment from EA’s crude research combined with Brent options data to provide a reliable, oil-specific measure of geopolitical risk, designed to provide real-time, actionable insights for crude oil markets. Unlike broader, lagging indices, the EA index is built from the ground up to capture the unique dynamics and tail risks that geopolitical events pose to oil supply, pricing and volatility.

EA crude geopolitical risk index

Source: Energy Aspects

EA Live: 'Our crude geopolitical risk index is at multiyear highs on US–Iran tensions as prompt options skew strengthens'
9 Feb 2026, 10:33

How is it derived?

By blending AI-driven lexicon analysis of EA content with options market positioning metrics such as put-call skew and call-to-put volumes, it captures both fundamental developments and forward-looking trader behaviour, making it a robust and timely indicator for market participants.

A key innovation is our use of a large language model (LLM) prompt to systematically assess whether news and research content explicitly connect geopolitical events to oil markets or supply. This AI-driven process ensures only relevant, current, and imminent risks are captured, filtering out noise and general market sentiment unrelated to oil-specific geopolitical threats.

Why is it better than previous indices?

Traditional indices, such as the Caldara and Iacoviello global geopolitical risk index, often lag market movements, are published infrequently, and struggle to explain prompt Brent futures price volatility during oil-specific geopolitical events. In contrast, the EA index delivers clearer, more persistent signals, demonstrating a statistically significant one-day lead over traditional indices and around three days of persistence, which is invaluable for near-term volatility analysis and prompt Brent risk management. Our index has already identified multiple major geopolitical events affecting oil markets since 2023, with sharper and more actionable signals than previous benchmarks.

Download the full insight

Ready to dive deeper? Download the full insight that explains our AI-driven approach to assessing geopolitical risk that directly impacts oil markets.

Final exit ramp: Volatility reigns as US–Iran standoff persists

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Energy markets remain highly volatile as geopolitical tensions continue to cloud the 2026 outlook. US–Iran talks are set to resume this week after limited progress in the initial round on 6 February. The risk of military escalation, and a corresponding geopolitical risk premium in oil prices, will rise sharply if President Trump perceives Iran as unwilling to compromise.

In refined products, a timely ramp-up at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is poised to soften Atlantic basin gasoline fundamentals. Diesel prices meanwhile have weakened, with ample prompt supply outweighing robust heating demand expectations. While refining margins are steady, increased flat price volatility is heightening operational risks for refiners.

Global macro sentiment has worsened, with early-year optimism about growth fading rapidly. In natural gas, we see upside for TTF as European storage remains tight, and JKM–TTF spreads appear undervalued. Conversely, Henry Hub is likely to come under pressure as milder weather forecasts emerge.

Crude Oil

We expect oil markets to stay volatile, with multiple scenarios possible for Iran’s oil and gas output depending on political developments and US policy choices. Even if US president Donald Trump were to accept a nuclear-only deal—a scenario that is highly uncertain—major sanctions relief is unlikely. At best, Iran may avoid military strikes and further curbs on oil sales to China.

Traders are likely to remain cautious about shorting crude, a stance reinforced by fundamentals, as there is still no clear evidence of the widely anticipated 2026 glut. If oversupply fails to materialise soon, the market narrative could quickly shift. Rather than selling rallies—a strategy that has dominated for the past two years—buying dips may become the new norm.

European high-frequency crude stocks, mb

Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

Oil Products

The ramp-up at Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is set to weigh on prompt gasoline spreads, with higher crude inputs signalling an end to elevated European imports. We expect this shift to pressure European prices and allow for more exports to the US.

Diesel prices have softened as prompt supply remains ample, despite robust heating demand expectations. Unless major outages or a significant US storm boost demand, NYMEX heating oil spreads should continue to ease, while ICE gasoil timespreads may find support after the Feb-26 expiry as European refinery maintenance ramps up.

Europe diesel inventories, mb

Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

Refining

Rising flat price and freight volatility are increasing inventory and pricing risks for refiners. We forecast global runs will rise by 0.75 mb/d y/y in H1 26, supported by elevated hedging and low spring maintenance.

Europe Gas

We remain bullish on TTF Mar-26 and Q2-26 contracts, as European storage inventories are well below the five-year average. The bal-winter risks are skewed to the upside, with storage likely to be challenged by any late-winter cold snap. Europe would need to add 63–65 bcm to reach what we see as the minimum required inventory levels to ensure winter supply security.

North America Gas

Forecasts for the Lower 48 show a break in the cold snap, with heating degree days expected to fall below the 10-year average from mid-February. The Henry Hub prompt contract had its sharpest decline in 30 years after a warm trend emerged, and we continue to forecast below-average storage carryouts for end-March and end-October 2026.

Global LNG

JKM–TTF spreads have narrowed as freight rates collapse and supply to east-of-Suez markets increases. A significant y/y boost to baseload east-of-Suez supply is expected this year from the full ramp-up of LNG Canada, reducing the need for West African cargoes and shifting more US spot cargoes towards Asia.

Europe diesel inventories, mb

Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

Geopolitics

If diplomacy with Iran fails, President Trump may pursue military strikes on internal security, nuclear, or missile sites—targets favoured by Israel—or opt for non-kinetic measures such as cyberattacks, covert support and economic pressure. He could also tighten enforcement of secondary sanctions on Iranian crude buyers or impose further tariffs (his preferred tool).

Two days of trilateral Russia–Ukraine–US talks in Abu Dhabi ended without a breakthrough, with discussions set to resume in the coming weeks. For markets, the main takeaway is a reduced likelihood of any rapid shift in sanctions policy.

Marco

The consensus view that global growth was set to accelerate in 2026 appears to be unravelling. Inflation risks remain, as companies likely front-loaded tariff-driven price increases at the start of the year.

The US labour market is showing growing signs of weakness, with ADP data indicating that the subdued hiring and firing trend in late 2025 persisted into January. Increasing announced layoffs and declining job openings suggest further deterioration is likely.

This article was first published on LinkedIn. For a deeper dive into this topic and to stay updated with our latest insights, you can access the full newsletter here.

ExxonMobil's Golden Pass still on track for first LNG exports this March but risk of slippage

Wed, 04 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

ExxonMobil’s Golden Pass LNG project in Texas is one of the most closely watched developments in the global LNG market. With a nameplate capacity of 6 Mtpa for Train 1, Golden Pass is set to become a major new source of US LNG supply. Its commissioning and ramp-up are expected to have a significant impact on global gas balances, US feedgas demand, and Atlantic Basin trade flows - making the timing of its first exports a critical market signal for traders, analysts, and portfolio managers worldwide.

EA Live Market Update on 30 Jan 2026, 15:59

We still expect ExxonMobil's 6 Mtpa Golden Pass LNG Train 1 to load two cargoes in March, aligning with the company’s comment that it expects first LNG in March. Feedgas nominations have dipped slightly to 24 mmcf/d, from a 26 mmcf/d peak on 23 January, but remain broadly stable. Golden Pass received FERC approval to introduce hazardous fluids into the fuel gas system and ground flares—a standard pre-commissioning step.

However, we see no spike on our thermal index, indicating the train is still cold and not liquefying. ExxonMobil's comments reinforce this view. A separate FERC permit for LNG production and storage systems is still required and unfiled. There is risk of slippage into April given ongoing commissioning.

Golden Pass Train 1 thermal index

Source: Energy Aspects

30 Jan 2026, 15: 59

Actionable intelligence, delivered first

The brief uptick in feedgas flows at the end of January 2026, sparked speculation about an early start to liquefaction. However, our proprietary thermal index and real-time monitoring told a different story. Despite the increase in flows, there was no corresponding heat signature, an essential indicator that liquefaction had not begun.

Through EA Live, our clients received a clear, actionable update : Golden Pass remains on track for first LNG exports in March, in line with commissioning progress and regulatory requirements. We also flagged the risk of potential slippage into April, providing a balanced view of the operational timeline.

Why this matters:

The start-up of Golden Pass LNG will reshape near-term supply dynamics and influence price signals across the Atlantic and beyond. Accurate, real-time insight into commissioning progress and export timing is essential for market participants seeking to manage risk and capture opportunity.

Energy Aspects’ Global LNG and North American gas EA Live service provides you with timely, data-driven updates that cut through market noise. Our proprietary analytics and on-the-ground intelligence ensure you receive the facts, before the market reacts.

Don’t rely on lagging indicators. Get ahead with Energy Aspects.

Interested in learning how EA Live can support your trading and portfolio strategies? Request a trial here.

This insight was originally published for EA Clients on 30 January 2026.

Webinar on-demand: 2026 Oil Market Outlook

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 09:22:15 GMT

What was covered in the webinar:

Market drivers for 2026 and beyond: Venezuelan sanctions ; tensions in Iran; OPEC+ targets; Chinese stock builds ; and other factors influencing global oil balances.
Regional demand trends: Asia, particularly Southeast Asia, and North America are expected to see firm demand; the petrochemical sector is set for growth, with strong demand for naphtha, LPG, and NGLs due to new petrochemical facilities, mainly in China.
Benchmark performance: Dubai is expected to struggle in the first half of the year and improve in the second half; Brent is performing well at present.
Overview of available datasets (over 200) and instructions on how you can access and export all data.

Webinar recorded on 29 January 2026.

Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar:

Marketer-in-chief: Geopolitical shocks roil energy markets at the start of 2026

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran are firmly in the spotlight, setting the early-year tone for risk across global energy markets.

For crude, any rebound in Venezuelan output is expected to be gradual and incremental, but a shift in trade flows is already underway. In clean product markets, gasoline prices in the Atlantic basin have rallied at the start of the year, though softer fundamentals could soon put a lid on further gains. Meanwhile, diesel markets remain under pressure amid ample supply. Refining margins are hovering just above run-cut thresholds, and any reallocation of Venezuelan barrels is poised to have a far greater impact on crude markets than on refined products.

Geopolitical risks will remain elevated as the Iranian regime’s political crisis deepens, with intensifying protests and repeated warnings that the US could intervene. Oil and gas markets are bracing for a range of potential scenarios, each carrying sharply different implications. Macro risks are also front and centre, with mixed US data, shifting inflation and tariff uncertainty clouding the outlook. In gas markets, cold weather has tightened European balances and buoyed TTF, while JKM–TTF spreads have narrowed as freight rates collapse. In North America, mild weather and high storage continue to weigh on Henry Hub.

Crude Oil

Oil prices started 2026 on a volatile note, rebounding after initial losses tied to Venezuela’s political turmoil. While traders weigh short-term supply risks, positioning tailwinds—including the unwinding of decade-high managed money shorts—are supporting prices. Venezuelan output recovery will be slow, with legal and operational hurdles limiting gains. Immediate trade-flow shifts will come from Washington’s plans to market Venezuelan barrels, not increased production.

Despite ubiquitous bearish sentiment in the market, supply–demand balances may prove tighter than expected overall, as seen throughout 2025.

Figure 1: Venezuela crude exports, mb/d - Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

Oil Products

Gasoline prices in the Atlantic basin have found support from refinery outages and increased CTA buying, but further gains are likely to be capped by rising inventories and subdued US demand. Meanwhile, diesel cracks remain under pressure, with the market well supplied thanks to strong runs in Europe and the US Gulf Coast, alongside steady inflows from the Middle East. Even with the EU’s “refining loophole” ban set to take effect on 21 January, we expect diesel margins to stay soft given the abundance of supply.

Figure 2: European diesel inventories, mb - Source: OilX, Energy Aspects

Refining

Refining margins are just above run-cut levels, supported by high utilisation rates. The potential reshuffle of Venezuelan crude flows is expected to have only a minor impact on product yields, with USGC refiners able to absorb additional heavy barrels. We forecast margins to average $5/bbl in 2026, slightly down y/y, but up from 2024, with stronger performance in H1 26.

Europe Gas

Cold weather has tightened European gas balances, supporting TTF prices. Our price-sensitivity model suggests Europe would have only 25 bcm in stocks by end-March at current market prices—down by 12 bcm y/y and 37 bcm below the 2023–24 average. This lack of late-winter stocks underpins our bullish view on TTF near-curve prices through the rest of winter and into 2026. The risk of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal remains a key downside factor for prices.

Figure 3: European storage level, bcm - Source: Energy Aspects, GIE

North America Gas

Mild weather and high storage levels continue to weigh on Henry Hub prices, despite strong LNG feedgas demand and record production. The market remains loose, with the next tightening event likely to come from the ramp-up of feedgas flows to Golden Pass.

Global LNG

Geopolitics

The geopolitical premium in oil prices is set to persist as focus shifts from Venezuela to Iran. Widespread protests continue despite a mounting death toll and intensified government crackdown. Markets are weighing scenarios from supply disruptions to regime change. President Trump reiterated possible US intervention, though officials are likely to recommend economic and cyber measures over military action. Israel is also considering ways to pressure Iran.

Marco

Macro uncertainty persists, with mixed US economic data, shifting inflation and potential tariff changes keeping risks elevated. The outlook remains clouded, with markets sensitive to new developments on both the economic and geopolitical fronts.

This article was first published on LinkedIn. For a deeper dive into this topic and to stay updated with our latest insights, you can access the full newsletter here.

Webinar on-demand: Venezuela, oil supply and the "Donroe doctrine"

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 09:22:15 GMT

What was covered in the webinar:

Current political situation in Venezuela and its implications for the country’s oil industry.
Challenges facing Venezuela’s oil sector, including the poor state of physical infrastructure, the need for legal clarity, and the country’s struggling economy.
Uncertainty surrounding future investment and production levels in Venezuela, with a focus on the practical difficulties that must be addressed before any significant recovery can take place.
How US Gulf Coast refineries might use Venezuelan crude , with most refineries expected to process it as a small part of their overall intake, leading to adjustments in the types of crude they use.
Extensive oil reserves in Venezuela, particularly heavy and extra-heavy crude, and the high costs associated with extracting and processing these resources.
Importance of political stability, legal frameworks, and infrastructure improvements for attracting investment and enabling growth in oil production.

Webinar recorded on 8 January 2026.

Watch the webinar

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Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar:

Yasser Elguindi on hidden demand, oil's low point and OPEC reserves

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 09:22:15 GMT

In our latest EA Forum podcast, Yasser Elguindi, Co-Portfolio Manager and Partner at Westbeck Capital LLP, joins EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, Dr Amrita Sen to talk 2026 oil markets , production growth and demand.

They discuss:

Yasser is “more constructive than consensus” with oil bottoming out in H1 26 and equity markets sniffing out new cycle.
He is also bullish demand and feels hidden demand may explain why promised oil glut is missing, potentially surprising market.
“Fiscal impulse” in US and Europe should restore economic growth to trend, but major unexpected economic shock is key risk.
Market catalyst may be when shale needs to deliver 1 mb/d growth and can’t, so shale breakevens become floor for oil .
Yasser sees OPEC oil reserves audit as “monumental” as the market is going to see what member countries have left.

This podcast was first released for subscribers on 15 December 2025.

EA Forum

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Venezuela’s oil recovery: A long and daunting road

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 09:22:15 GMT

Despite vast reserves, Venezuela’s path to higher oil output is fraught with technical, financial and political challenges

Traders are closely watching for the potential impact of regime change on Venezuela’s oil production, reflecting hopes for a swift upswing—after all, the country has roughly 300 billion barrels of proven oil reserves.

However, excitement about a rapid rebound in Venezuelan oil output risks putting the cart before the horse.

Even with Maduro gone, the path to recovery will be uneven. Even if the 30-50 mb of Venezuelan oil flows to the US under the directive of President Trump, potentially at the expense of China , reducing the downside risk to near-term production and exports, the country still has to navigate a period of political uncertainty which has implications for the medium term. Overall production and balances are unlikely to shift materially any time soon even if trade flows do.

US blockade and sanctions remain in place for now

For now, the Trump administration plans to keep oil sanctions and a blockade in place as leverage against Venezuela’s remaining political and military leadership. But lifting the blockade or allowing flows to the US would only allow Venezuelan crude production to return to its previous 1.1 mb/d level. If Trump is satisfied with how Venezuela acts over the next few weeks or months, he may start to reshape oil sanctions. A package of waivers and continued enforcement against the shadow fleet could create a toolkit to redirect Venezuelan oil flows and maintain US leverage.

The US military strikes did not damage any oil infrastructure. But Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) started to shut in around 0.2 mb/d of crude production in the Orinoco Belt on 28 December due to storage constraints. Sustained reductions in diluent imports will also impede production.

Restoring Venezuelan upstream infrastructure is a massive task

Any recovery in Venezuelan crude production will be a slow grind rather than a sudden rush.

We estimate easing sanctions (as described above) are only likely to result in output rising by 0.2 mb/d versus 2025 average levels by 2027 to 1.3 mb/d, as most of the easy gains have already been achieved since Chevron resumed operations in late 2022.

A more substantial recovery that raises Venezuelan crude production above 2 mb/d would require many years and tens of billions of dollars, and it would still face significant obstacles. Even if the political environment stabilises, we would expect a piecemeal recovery in which foreign companies opt to rehabilitate or develop only those projects that require limited investment. This would result in few new capacity additions and, given natural declines, Venezuelan output would remain below 1.5 mb/d when Trump leaves office in 2029.

There are many brownfield opportunities that firms will consider before greenfield developments. But even these projects will face issues from existing infrastructure, which is heavily dilapidated after years of inadequate maintenance and theft. Gas compressors, power supply, wells, upgraders and terminals all need expensive remediation or complete replacement.

Restoring electricity supply requires repair of hydroelectric dams, transmission infrastructure and thermal power plants, as well as restructuring of natural gas pricing mechanisms.

Investor confidence will be slow to recover

PDVSA lacks the capacity to coordinate the investment and activities required for a sectorwide overhaul, especially if its leadership undergoes a major shake-up to remove some Chavistas as part of a wider political transition. Oil firms would need to play a major role, but they will be cautious about committing substantial amounts of capital.

Potential investors will also be concerned about the durability of upstream contracts issued under US pressure and the risk of claims from companies whose assets were expropriated or creditors holding Venezuelan or PDVSA bonds. Venezuela’s total external debts are estimated to be around $150–170 billion.

These political and legal risks will be factored into commercial investment decisions, especially by the large oil companies that Trump is pushing to take the lead. These firms may opt to slow-walk investment commitments, rather than risk political backlash by openly rejecting Trump’s wishes.

Sell the rumour, sell the news: Energy markets in the red as fundamentals weaken

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Crude prices face renewed pressure as markets anticipate heavy Q1 26 stockbuilds, with curves poised to shift into contango. Gasoline remains tight, with global balances set to draw from Q2 26, while prompt diesel stays weak but could find support from the EU’s looming “refining loophole” ban. Global refining capacity is stretched, leaving little room to absorb shocks, and any extra supply of clean products will depend on new projects or fewer outages. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Powell’s softer tone has buoyed risk assets, but this week’s US labour and inflation data could quickly dampen the usual year-end bullish sentiment.

In gas, we hold a slightly bullish view on TTF prices for 2026, especially for Q1 26 delivery, as late-winter stock-out risks build. We remain bearish on JKM–TTF spreads for 2026, with new LNG supply outpacing demand growth, and also bearish on Henry Hub 2026 prices, as we expect production growth to easily offset the structural rise in demand from LNG export facilities.

Crude Oil

Liquidity is likely to remain thin over the coming weeks, and prices may drift lower unless major geopolitical outages disrupt the market. Ukraine peace talks are a major volatility driver. We think an imminent deal is unlikely, but the window for one has opened.

Chinese SPR buying has provided support for prices this year, and another buying round is possible in 2026, with few capacity constraints. Overall, global demand fears likely peaked in Q2 25 after “Liberation Day”, when US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats briefly unsettled markets. We forecast global liquids demand to rise by 1.2 mb/d y/y in 2026, up from 0.8 mb/d growth in 2025, despite ongoing macro and policy uncertainty.

Global non-OPEC crude production is set to grow by 0.84 mb/d in 2026, but this outlook is highly price-sensitive. If Brent prices drop into the $50s for more than six months, we expect a y/y decline of 0.8 mb/d in H2 26, led by the US. OPEC+ will also play a key role in 2026—if the group continues to draw down spare capacity, it will support prices further out on the curve.

Figure 1: Global crude stockbuilds, mb/d - Source: Energy Aspects

Oil Products

Gasoline markets will remain tight over winter 2025–26, with global demand rising and stockdraws expected through summer. Any relief from Nigeria’s Dangote refinery is likely to be limited. Diesel remains weak at the prompt, but the EU’s “refining loophole” ban could boost cracks as Europe seeks alternative supply. Atlantic basin inventories are tight, and any supply shock or cold weather could amplify price moves.

Figure 2: Brent 3-2-1 crack, $/bbl - Source: Bloomberg, Energy Aspects

Refining

Global refining capacity is stretched, with utilisation near maximum and limited flexibility to absorb major supply disruptions in 2026. Any increase in product supply will depend on new capacity additions or a return to normal after unplanned maintenance. Most new capacity is due to come online in H2 26, which should ease margins, but delays could keep margins elevated for longer.

Europe Gas

We are slightly bullish on TTF prices for Q1 26, with stock-out risks rising as underground inventories draw down into late winter. Milder weather has softened demand recently, but any cold snap could quickly tighten balances. Market risks include LNG project outages, Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure, and the potential for higher Arctic LNG 2 exports.

North America Gas

A brief cold snap in early December pushed Henry Hub above $5/MMBtu for the first time in nearly three years, but forecasts now look milder. We remain bearish on Henry Hub in 2026, as we believe production growth, especially from the Permian and Haynesville, should easily offset rising LNG demand.

Global LNG

We remain bearish on JKM–TTF spreads for 2026, as only marginal West African cargoes are needed, with new supply from LNG Canada and Pluto Train 2 limiting Atlantic basin flows to Asia. Freight market pressures are easing, with rates expected to settle lower into next year.

Long-term and Transition

The expiry of the US EV tax credit has sharply reduced EV sales, lifting US gasoline demand forecasts through 2030. Stronger US chemicals demand has also boosted liquids demand, while robust EV sales in China and higher GDP growth are supporting global chemical feedstock demand. Our global liquids demand peak is now expected at 110.2 mb/d in 2033.

Geopolitics

Geopolitical risks remain two-sided, with Russia–Ukraine, Israel–Iran and Venezuela likely to dominate headlines in 2026. Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy, ongoing sanctions and unresolved conflicts will keep volatility elevated.

The trajectory of the Russia–Ukraine crisis will have the greatest impact on oil markets next year. Trump’s approach so far has involved a reluctant tightening of oil sanctions on Russia and a loosening of restrictions on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. He could escalate sanctions and support for Ukraine, or pressure Kyiv into a deal, and each scenario would have vastly different implications for oil markets.

Marco

Fed Chair Powell’s less hawkish tone has lifted risk assets, but this week’s US labour (NFP) and inflation (CPI) data could quickly reverse sentiment. The US labour market remains a key risk for 2026, with layoffs rising and hiring at pandemic-level lows. Another risk to watch is the surge in AI investment costs, with credit markets signalling concern over mounting debt in the tech sector.

Acetic Acid

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 09:22:15 GMT

The manufacture of acetic acid consumed 7.3% of the 111.8 million metric tonnes of methanol produced in 2024. Acetic acid is a well-developed intermediate used in several successful commercial chemical processes as both chemical intermediate and solvent. Eventual applications for acetic acid derivatives include latex emulsion resins for paints, adhesives, paper coatings, textile finishing agents, cellulose acetate fibres, cigarette filter tow and cellulosic plastics. It is also found in ocean water, oilfield brines, rain and at trace concentrations in many plant and animal liquids. Acetic acid is central to all biological energy pathways and, in its pure form, is corrosive and characterised by its sharp odour, burning taste and harmful blistering properties.

Other names for acetic acid include glacial acetic acid, ethanoic acid, ethylic acid, methane carboxylic acid and vinegar acid.

Like formaldehyde, acetic acid follows several pathways leading to significant commercial final goods. The table below describes the major derivatives of acetic acid and their intended uses:

Major acetic acid derivates uses

From this list, drivers for acetic acid are mostly non-durable and disposable goods (e.g. paints, adhesives, cigarette consumption, aspirin, fibres, plastic bottles).

Vinyl acetate monomer (VAM) and Terephthalic acid (TPA) have played an important role in global acetic acid demand growth. VAM has benefitted from strong consumer demand globally and TPA demand has been accelerating following the growth of polyester demand, primarily for plastic-bottle production but also in fibre applications. The other major consumers of acetic acid also show positive, although slower, growth.

Markets

The charts below break down the regional distribution of acetic acid supply and demand. Asia, led by China, has provided the most demand growth for acetic acid in recent history. This is particularly the case for TPA, as China has been adding significant polyester production capacity to meet rapidly growing demand associated with its WTO participation and is investing upstream in new TPA capacity. Additionally, acetate esters (oxygenated solvents) are growing in China as reductions in chlorinated and hydrocarbon solvents are enacted. Outside Asia, demand growth has been much more moderate, ranging from flat to slightly positive.

2020 Acedic Acid Demand by Major Region

2020 Acedic Acid Supply by Major Region

Webinar on-demand: Alternative Data

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 09:22:15 GMT

What was covered in the webinar:

An introduction to Energy Aspects’ Alternative Data suite and the integration of data scientists with analysts to enhance market insights.
An overview of LNG market developments , including the upcoming supply wave and the importance of tracking LNG trains individually for accurate market analysis.
Explanation of proprietary construction monitor curves and their role in revising supply balances and identifying project delays, with examples of client demand for these as standalone products.
Details on the construction monitor dataset , which tracks projects through to mechanical completion and provides both historical and under-construction asset data.
Insights into the expansion of alternative data use cases, particularly for understanding gas demand and broader energy market trends.

Webinar recorded on 18 November 2025.

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Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar:

Form follows structure

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 09:22:15 GMT

How geopolitics and policy are reshaping energy fundamentals.

This market insight examines the key drivers behind recent volatility in global energy markets, exploring how geopolitical events , economic shifts, and policy changes are shaping the outlook for oil, gas, and refined products into 2026.

Download now to discover:

Why crude oil prices are under pressure despite Russian supply risks and how market sentiment is shifting.
The outlook for Atlantic basin gasoline and diesel markets through winter and into summer 2026.
How global refining margins have reached multi-year highs and what could drive them lower in Q1 2026.
Key macroeconomic developments , including delayed US economic data and the likely Fed rate cut.
Bullish and bearish factors shaping European and North American natural gas prices and inventories.

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Originally released to subscribers as part of our Energy 360 service , which provides a comprehensive cross-market analysis.

Playing the LNG game

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

The main drivers behind US gas demand growth through 2030.
How LNG strategies and new export capacity are reshaping market dynamics.
The implications of pipeline expansions and regional production trends for supply and pricing.

Download report

Please fill in your contact details to access the full insight.

We increased our ERCOT load forecast as DR and reforms will unlock more demand

Thu, 13 Nov 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

The main drivers behind ERCOT’s recent and forecasted load growth.
How regulatory reforms and demand response programmes are unlocking new demand.
The challenges and opportunities presented by large load queues and project approval delays.

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Fade expectations: Products prices surge as market fades Russian crude risks

Tue, 11 Nov 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Products, and diesel in particular, have been the biggest mover this week, with Atlantic basin diesel cracks and spreads surging on low inventories, refinery outages and heightened geopolitical risks. Gasoline prices also hit multi-year highs, supported by US inventory draws and upcoming maintenance.

In contrast, crude prices remain under pressure, driven by market apathy towards Russian sanctions. While traders expect workarounds, stricter US enforcement could disrupt up to 1.5 mb/d of Russian crude exports.

On the macro front, energy is the only sector in positive territory as equity markets weaken. We are bullish on TTF prices in gas as Europe enters winter with below-average stocks, while the rally in US Henry Hub prices looks overdone amid strong production.

Crude Oil

Crude has remained stuck in its downtrend since late October as markets increasingly fade the impact of US sanctions on Russia. We maintain the market is underestimating sanction risks, given recent signals from the US government including its rejection of Gunvor’s bid for Lukoil’s international assets.

We expect the largest global commercial crude stockbuilds in Q1 26. Prices could fall further if Russian crude held on water is released early next year, unless US sanctions are enforced.

Figure 1: EA Crude and liquids stock changes, mb/d - Source: Energy Aspects

Oil Products

Product markets are showing renewed strength, led by a sharp rally in diesel cracks on low inventories and mounting uncertainty around Russian exports. Fresh highs were also catalysed by news that Dangote will be offline from December for two months. While Dangote’s return will eventually weigh on European summer gasoline, we expect market tightness to persist until at least May 2026.

Figure 2: Brent 3-2-1 crack, $/bbl - Source: Bloomberg, Energy Aspects

Refining

Europe Gas

European gas balances are tightening, with storage starting winter at 90 bcm, below last year and the five-year average. We see TTF prices sitting higher than the market curve to moderate winter demand and attract Atlantic basin LNG, supporting inventory recovery into end-October 2026.

Figure 3: European storage fill, bcm - Source: GIE, Energy Aspects

North America Gas

US gas prices have rallied w/w, but the move appears overdone given rising production and moderate weather forecasts. Storage carryout for end-March 2026 has been revised down, but there is limited risk of shortages. Feedgas flows are set to tighten balances as new LNG projects ramp up.

Global LNG

We are bearish on JKM–TTF spreads for bal-winter, as only marginal West African cargoes are likely needed and Asian LNG inventories remain high. But we remain bullish on outright JKM prices, supported by our positive TTF outlook, with higher prices needed to curb European demand and attract flexible LNG.

Geopolitics

The Trump administration is increasing pressure on Maduro, although US policy limits persist. Traders are keeping an eye on the potential impact of a regime change on Venezuela’s oil prospects, but we believe that talking about a rapid rebound in oil output is premature.

Marco

Financial markets are showing increased caution amid limited US economic data and concerns over growth. Global manufacturing PMIs suggest contraction is easing, but order backlogs and imports in the US have declined, pointing to ongoing challenges.

Trick or trade

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

The impact of Russian export risks, OPEC+ policy uncertainty, and shifting Asian crude demand on global oil balances and pricing.
Recent US and European product market disruptions, including refinery outages and evolving trade flows, and their effects on gasoline and diesel spreads.
The outlook for natural gas and LNG markets, with a focus on European storage , Asian demand recovery , and US LNG feedgas growth.
Key geopolitical and macroeconomic developments shaping energy markets, from US–China trade policy to potential US military action in Venezuela.

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Global LNG markets just about balanced to end-2029 without need for US shut-ins

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

The key risks, including China, storage capacity, Russian volumes, and weather sensitivity.
Estimated Asian structural and price-sensitive demand response, focusing on the largest importing countries.
Europe’s role as absorber of excess volumes under pressure.

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Advancing industrial sustainability: Opportunities for Saudi Arabia in a decarbonising world

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

How oil-focused E&Ps have responded to crude price volatility .
Shifting trends in upstream activity and hedging.
Our updated expectations for Permian gas production through 2026.
Continued midstream investment through end-decade

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US Crude Trading Calendar 2026

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Stay on top of market-moving dates with Energy Aspects’ free 2026 US Crude Trading Calendar. This essential resource helps market participants plan ahead with key US crude oil market dates at a glance.

The calendar includes:

CME WTI futures and options expiry
ICE Brent futures and options expiry
NYMEX holidays
US physical trade cycle dates
EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) release dates
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) release dates

Download your free copy today and stay ahead of market-moving dates.

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Jeff Currie on tech bubbles and a once-in-a-lifetime chance for energy bulls

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects.

They discuss:

Why Jeff thinks oil and energy will skyrocket when the tech bubble bursts, as everyone is overweight tech and underweight energy.
Parallels of the current cycle with 2004–08, when oil went over $140, and how China and defence-led Europe can drive demand.
Why market changes mean the back end of the curve can’t go up sharply, at least for now.
The lack of spare capacity and new non-OPEC projects, prompting Jeff to quote Warren Buffet: “Only when the tide goes out do you discover who has been swimming naked”.

Podcast recorded on 23 September 2025.

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Webinar on-demand: Quant Insights - Navigating macro and metals markets

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 09:22:15 GMT

What was covered in the webinar:

New quantitative tools for tracking market drivers, including a copper volatility decomposition model and real-time dashboards for metals and macro markets.
Recent trends in market positioning, such as the shift from outright copper positions to time spreads and the impact of macro spillovers and tariff policy on price swings.
Enhancements to the options analytics dashboard, including advanced methodologies for assessing dealer positioning and generating tradable signals, with a focus on gold’s 35% price rise this year.
ETF flow trends and discretionary positioning across asset classes, highlighting shifts in US equity allocations, increased interest in international equities and gold, and the value of Energy Aspects’ comprehensive, actionable quant insights.

Webinar recorded on 16 September 2025.

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Our expert analysts speaking in this webinar:

US Crude Trading Calendar 2025

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Stay on top of market-moving dates with Energy Aspects’ free 2025 US Crude Trading Calendar. This essential resource helps traders, analysts, and market participants plan ahead with key US crude oil market dates at a glance.

The calendar includes:

CME WTI futures and options expiry
ICE Brent futures and options expiry
NYMEX holidays
US physical trade cycle dates
EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM)
EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO)
IEA Oil Market Report (OMR)
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR)

Download your free copy today and stay ahead of market-moving dates.

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North America Gas Market Report

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

How oil-focused E&Ps have responded to crude price volatility .
Shifting trends in upstream activity and hedging.
Our updated expectations for Permian gas production through 2026.
Continued midstream investment through end-decade

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Gas Quant Weekly - Discretionary funds further trimmed their net-long position by over 20k lots in TTF

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Usually available only to our Gas Quant Analytics subscribers as a weekly update, this insight is now open for download.

Discretionary funds have significantly reduced their net-long positions in TTF, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties such as the Trump–Putin talks. Meanwhile, CTAs have shifted from maximum short levels to marginal buyers, adding persistent support to prices.

Additionally, the recent decline in net injections below the five-year seasonal average is creating pressure on recently added TTF winter short positions. In the Henry Hub market, option trades have led to net-long option dealer gamma positions, which have a stabilising effect on the futures market. Our insights delve into these developments, offering strategies to navigate the evolving landscape.

Key findings in this report:

Discretionary funds further cut their net-long position in TTF by over 20k lots ahead of the Trump–Putin Alaska talks.
CTAs, after being at maximum short levels, have turned into substantial buyers, with further buying levels between €34.00/MWh and €35.50/MWh.
Recent strength in TTF and fall in net injections below the five-year seasonal average add pressure to winter short positions.
Henry Hub options trades have led to net-long gamma positions from option dealers unhedged gamma positions, which have a stabilising effect on the underlying futures market.

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Metals Quant Weekly - Exploring CTA flow-imbalance strategies in precious metals

Thu, 21 Aug 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Usually available only to our Metals Quant Analytics subscribers as a weekly update, this insight is now open for download.

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

The effects of a recent CTA flow imbalance strategy on CMX precious metals complex.
The profitability of the gold–platinum spread strategy amid declining volatility.
Insights into the rangebound trading regimes of platinum and silver.
The impact of volatility on CTA portfolio allocations in precious metals.
How to leverage market conditions for increased profitability.

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Macro Quant Weekly - Market sentiment defies seasonal volatility trends

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Usually available only to our Macro Quant Analytics subscribers as a weekly update, this insight is now open for download.

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

How current market sentiment defies typical seasonal volatility patterns.
The impact of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations on r isk assets.
The role of systematic funds and their leverage in the current market.
Potential scenarios for market reactions to Fed easing cycles.
Strategies for navigating potential volatility rebounds.

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Oil Quant Weekly - US crude positions adjust to economic data trends

Tue, 19 Aug 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Usually available only to our Oil Quant Analytics subscribers as a weekly update, this insight is now open for download.

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

The impact of macroeconomic data on crude oil market positions.
How bearish deferred crude timespreads are shaping market strategies.
The role of inventory builds in influencing market dynamics.
Strategies for managing risks in a volatile market environment.
Insights into future market movements based on current trend

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Top OFS companies showed resilience in Q2 25 earnings

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

How precise market trends can support your forecasting and resource allocation.
The measurable impact of shifts between onshore and offshore activity.
Specific performance insights on emerging technologies, supported by real-world data.
How the North America onshore slowdown has moved to pressure pumping even as the rig count has stabilised.
Where upstream activity remains resilient, especially in deepwater basins.
Specific performance insights on emerging technologies that are reducing the cost of oil supply .

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Short-run price sensitivity of Asian demand update – More sensitivity in $10–15/MMBtu range

Thu, 07 Aug 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

The non-linear relationship between TTF prices and Asian demand incorporating fuel-switching dynamics.
The specific price triggers for fuel-switching across key Asian markets.
TTF price forecasts through 2027 and implications for demand patterns.

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China to continue leveraging commercial tanks for SPR buying amid low oil prices

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

How China's latest SPR mandate will bolster crude demand as OPEC+ increases production.
The strategic shift from government SPR sites to commercial petroleum reserves.
Our assessment of China's current storage capacity and future expansion plans.
The implications for medium sour crude grades that align with Chinese refining needs .
Potential market impacts through Q1 2026 and beyond.

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Neste returns to Oregon in response to soaring CFP credit prices

Thu, 31 Jul 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

The substantial price differential driving unexpected changes in renewable diesel shipment patterns.
How a major supplier has redirected volumes to Oregon after months of absence.
Our revised blend-rate forecasts based on emerging supply responses.
The strategic positioning of credit holders amid tightening market conditions.
Potential price movement scenarios for Q3 2025 and beyond.

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August heatwave poses substantial upside risk to Europe power, gas prices

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 09:22:15 GMT

By downloading this report, you'll discover:

How extreme weather conditions could drive substantial price increases across Western European power markets .
The relationship between cooling demand, hydro generation, and thermal gap widening.
Why gas-fired generation would need to increase, and the subsequent market effects.
How nuclear and coal generation capabilities are affected by heatwave conditions.
The comparative outlook against current market pricing.

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Refining in 2025: Tighter clean-product balances to lift margins; West to outperform East

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 09:22:15 GMT

This report, first released for Energy Aspects subscribers, examines the global refining outlook for 2025, forecasting stable margins with regional variations and shifting product balances.

What you'll learn:

What global refining margins will average in 2025, with strengthening across H1 25 before softening in H2 25.
Why West-of-Suez products will outperform eastern markets, with diesel balances proving more constructive than gasoline.
How crude demand growth continues to be led by sour grades, with OPEC+ and Iran emerging as key swing factors for sweet-sour spreads.
The significant impact of China's capacity growth, which will weigh more heavily on petrochemical margins than clean products.
Critical wildcards for 2025 margins, including lower Russian product supplies, tighter Iranian availability, and potential tariff impacts .

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Webinar on-demand: Uncovering the secrets of global LNG flows

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 09:22:15 GMT

On Tuesday, 8 July, Energy Aspects hosted Live insights: Uncovering the secrets of global LNG flows webinar.

During this webinar, Energy Aspects’ Head of European Gas and LNG, James Waddell and Cargo Tracking Sales Manager, Fleur Gindre spoke on how our gas desk analysts utilise the LNG Cargo Tracking service to deliver key market insights by monitoring global trade flow trends, and introduced new analytical modules and shared plans for future developments of the service.

What was covered in the webinar:

How our very own EA gas desk analysts use our LNG Cargo Tracking service to provide critical market insights.
The key metrics we monitor to identify balance, confirming/refuting trends in global trade flows.
A live demo of our LNG Cargo Tracking tool demonstrating how leading organisations are mitigating market risk in times of extreme uncertainty.
Recent analytical modules added to the service, and further modules in development.

Webinar recorded on 8 July 2025.

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Webinar on-demand: Israel-Iran conflict: Strategic targeting, energy impacts, and diplomatic breakthrough potential

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 09:22:15 GMT

What was covered in the webinar:

Military balance assessment:  An assessment of how Israel has established air superiority and their strategic targeting priorities.
Impact analysis of Iranian strikes: Examination of recent strikes on energy facilities and their operational consequences.
Energy infrastructure targeting strategy: How Israeli strikes on two South Pars gas processing plants and fuel storage depots in Tehran were primarily intended as a warning signal.
Diplomatic developments: The current state of peace negotiations, including Trump's early departure from the G7 meeting to work on what he described as "something bigger than a ceasefire".

Webinar recorded on 17 June 2025.

The energy markets, given the Israel-Iran conflict, are a fluid environment; insights provided were current at the time of publishing.

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Energy Aspects acquires TankWatch

Tue, 17 Jun 2025 09:22:15 GMT

We are excited to announce the acquisition of TankWatch, a leader in crude oil storage intelligence. This acquisition is part of our ongoing strategic growth and investment plans, further enhancing our data and insight capabilities.

TankWatch is known for its crude oil storage intelligence, utilising the highest resolution imagery and specially developed algorithms to measure crude oil storage. The service offers unique insights into crude oil inventories and reserves, tailored specifically for the needs of traders and analysts. With a focus on the Cushing, Oklahoma hub, TankWatch delivers the most frequent per-tank, per-operator Cushing oil inventory data, providing first-to-market insights into daily changes in WTI stocks.

This acquisition complements other key acquisitions we have made in recent years, including INAS (It’s Not A Science) , which has been rebranded as EA Quant Analytics , OilX , Medley Advisors , and MMSA . Alongside our technological innovations such as EA Live and our AI Assistant, these strategic moves have enhanced the data and insights we deliver to our clients. By integrating TankWatch's leading technology and data-driven insights, Energy Aspects will further empower its clients to gain strategic advantages, drive data-backed futures strategies, and identify arbitrage opportunities for sharper trading decisions.

Fredrik Fosse, Chief Executive of Energy Aspects, stated: "Welcoming TankWatch into EA Group marks another significant step in our growth strategy. By combining our expertise with TankWatch's innovative technology, we are poised to continue delivering unparalleled data and insights to our clients".

For more information about Energy Aspects and the TankWatch service, please contact us at press@energyaspects.com .

Podcast: John Normand and the US compression trade

Wed, 11 Jun 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen sits down with John Normand, Head of Investment Strategy at AustralianSuper.

They discuss:

John does not expect a US recession, rather he sees a compression story where RoR of investing in the US is more comparable to other countries.
Fund continuing to diversify away from Australian assets, inherently exposed to China; John believes China is going through one of the world's most significant growth compressions in last 50 years.
Without government intervention to actively buy the excess properties in the market, there is no case to be overweight China structurally.
John still believes risk assets will outperform safe havens, but by less than previously as earnings growth will no longer be above trend. A ceiling on growth also constrains multiples.
Energy transition a key topic in the fund; Amrita notes clear headwinds for Chinese growth, but another supercycle cannot be ruled out given weak upstream/downstream investment.

Podcast recorded on 11 June 2025.

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Mature non-OPEC production faces 0.3 mb/d downside in 2026 at $60 Brent

Thu, 05 Jun 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Recently released for subscribers, Energy Aspects experts examine the potential downside risks to non-OPEC conventional crude production if Brent averages $60/bbl over 2025-26.

Our research reveals a possible 0.3 mb/d reduction to our 2026 forecast, with varying impacts across different regions. While the market has focused primarily on US shale's response to lower prices, conventional fields face significant challenges too.

What you'll discover in this analysis:

Major OFS companies' earnings trends and industry health outlook for 2025.
Contrasting performance between tight oil activity and deepwater operations.
Tariff implications for OFS supply chains and equipment manufacturing.
Regional market performance across North America, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia.
Strategic responses to shareholder expectations during market turbulence.

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Navigating the Macro storm: How EA Quant positioning data signalled the cross-asset shakeout

Thu, 05 Jun 2025 09:22:15 GMT

President Trump’s unexpected “Liberation Day” tariff announcement on 2 April triggered one of the sharpest and most disorderly cross-asset adjustments in recent memory.

Equities, Treasuries, and the dollar sold off in tandem, a rare alignment that underscored the market’s confusion around the growth-inflation trade-off. While the headlines caught many off guard, our positioning and macro factor signals were already pointing to vulnerabilities building beneath the surface.

Recently released for subscribers, this market insight can help you understand how positioning data provided early warning signals weeks before the market shock. Our detailed report reveals the specific indicators that mattered most and how you can apply these insights to your investment strategy.

In this analysis, our EA experts showed how our Quant Analytics framework provided a forward read on where pressure was likely to emerge.

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Global Methanol Market Overview

Sat, 31 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Our Global Methanol Market Overview, released for subscribers last week, delivers a comprehensive and succinct analysis of price movements, supply-demand dynamics, and regional trends across global methanol markets. This overview is part of the suite of integrated global methanol market analysis available to EA Methanol by MMSA clients.

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Methyl Tert-Butyl Ether (MTBE)

Thu, 29 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

The manufacture of MTBE consumed 10.8% of the 111.8 million metric tonnes of methanol produced in 2024. The major use for MTBE is to boost gasoline octane value in blends. MTBE adds oxygen when blended with gasoline, allowing for more efficient combustion and less carbon monoxide and unburned hydrocarbon in exhaust emissions. MTBE replaces the higher combusting, more volatile components of gasoline and is designed to reduce emissions of volatile organic compounds and nitrogen oxides, helping to abate ground-level ozone/smog formation. MTBE is also used as a source of isobutylene in the manufacture of high-purity polyisobutylene.

Growth in MTBE demand typically follows gasoline demand growth on a global basis. Asia accounts for more than half of world supply and demand and China more than half of Asian demand. Global growth in MTBE demand will predominantly be in China.

MTBE can be made using available refinery and olefin cracker butylene streams, but technology employing the use of iso-butane and methanol has become prevalent.

Exports of MTBE from the US have become regular, mainly to Mexico, Canada and South America. In Asia, MTBE trade is focused towards Singapore, with China a growing exporter. European MTBE supply is increasingly from the Middle East. A trade matrix showing MTBE trade by MMSA region and country listings can be provided to clients separately.

MMSA maintains a detailed global database of MTBE producers and consumers, as well as global supply and demand balances and forecasts through 2050.

Formaldehyde

Thu, 29 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Formaldehyde is the largest consumer of methanol, accounting for 23.2% of the 111.8 million metric tonnes of methanol produced in 2024. Formaldehyde is a highly versatile chemical intermediate used in the production of many strategically important products. These include: adhesives for wood panels, laminates and furniture frames; polyurethane foams for building and construction, automobiles and furniture; thermoplastics for high-performance engineering applications and household electronics; polyols for surface coatings and textiles; and an additive to fertilisers. Formaldehyde is an essential component of the modern petrochemical industry.

Formaldehyde demand by major region in 2024, %

Formaldehyde demand by major region in 2024, kt

Formaldehyde demand by major region in 2024, %

Formaldehyde demand by major region in 2024, kt

Growth in formaldehyde demand typically follows GDP growth on a global basis. Asia accounts for more than half of world demand and China more than half of Asian demand. As such, global growth in formaldehyde demand will predominantly be in Asia, but modest growth will also be seen in North America and Europe, servicing local consumers.

MMSA maintains a detailed global database of formaldehyde producers and consumers.

Methanol

Thu, 29 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Methanol is a basic, one-carbon molecule that enables a huge number of chemical processes. Made mostly from natural gas, it is at the trailhead of hundreds of value-chain pathways that lead through the realms of petrochemicals, alkalis, thiols and life-sciences chemicals, fundamental to modern-day consumer goods that society demands. Accordingly, methanol is a strategic chemical for a vast array of petrochemical industry participants.

The major uses for methanol are depicted in the table below, demonstrating its versatility. This is only a partial listing (prioritising the major groupings), with many smaller derivatives also comprising the balance.

Acetic acid

Vinyl acetate
Acetic anhydride
Terephthalic acid

Formaldehyde

Urea formaldehyde resins
Melamine resins
Phenol formaldehyde resins
Polyoxymethylene (POM or polyacetal)
Polyols
Butanediol
Polyesters (polybutyl terepthalate)
MDI
Isoprene
Rubber (polyisoprene)
Paraformaldehyde
Hexamine

Methanol to olefins (MTO)

Ethylene and derivatives
Propylene and derivatives
C4/butadiene
C5+
Water

Methyl tert-butyl ether (MTBE)

Gasoline additives
Isobutylene

Methyl methacrylate

Polymethylmethacrylate (PMMA)
Methacrylate/Acrylate Co Polymers
Methyl Chloride (Chloromethane)

Developmental Methanol Uses

Direct uses (gasoline blending)
Fuel cells

Methylamines

Monomethylamine
Caffeine (stimulant, diuretic)
Sevin/carbaryl (insecticide)
Various other insecticides
Various other herbicides
Various other pesticides
Water gel explosives
Photographic developers
Analgesics (Demerol)
Antispasmodics
Dimethylamine
Fungicides
Dimethyl formamide (solvent)
Rubber accelerators, processing agents
Propellants
Antihistaminic (Benadryl)
Catalysts (Urethane)
Surfactants
Water treatment
Detergents
Germicides
Herbicides
Epoxy resin accelerators
Trimethylamine
Acid Scavenger (nylon, benzyl esters)
Choline chloride
Ion exchange resins (with crosslinked polystyrene)
Gelling Inhibitor (polyester)

Other Methanol Uses

Dimethyl terephthalate
Polyesters
Reducing agent
Purified terephthalic acid (PTA)
Methyl mercaptan (methanethiol)
Chlorine dioxide
DL-methionine (amino acid)

Methanol has also been used as an "alternative fuel." In Europe, methanol is used in the production of biodiesel, which can replace refinery-based diesel for use in transportation. In China, methanol is used directly as a blending component of gasoline, driven by the need to extend the octane pool in that country and due to economic feasibility as high crude oil and gasoline prices have prompted the use of cheaper methanol. Methanol has also been considered for direct combustion in combined cycle power generation facilities.

There is also a significant commercialisation effort underway in two developmental uses for methanol: fuel cells and methanol-to-olefins (MTO or gas-to-olefins—GTO). Fuel cells can utilise the hydrogen molecules of methanol (as well as other fuels) to create electricity (and water). MTO/GTO utilise methanol as an intermediary step in the production of olefins and their derivatives (ethylene, propylene, polyethylene, polypropylene). All of these "alternative fuel" uses for methanol face significant hurdles in their commercialisation but high potential demand.

Markets

Methanol demand by major region in 2024, %

Methanol demand by major region in 2024, kt

Methanol supply by major region in 2024, %

Methanol supply by major region in 2024, kt

Manufacturing of methanol

Methanol is made from synthesis gas (syngas), which is the product of hydrocarbon-rich material that has been heated in the presence of metal catalysts. Almost exclusively, that hydrocarbon is natural gas (methane). However, in China, a large amount of production capacity uses coal as the source of hydrocarbons, so a discussion of natural gas-based and coal-based methanol production processes is merited.

Natural gas-based methanol production

Methanol production from syngas takes place in three major steps: first, reforming the catalysed production of syngas from saturated, de-sulphurised natural gas (reformation); second, methanol synthesis with a Cu/Zn/Alumina catalyst and, finally, crude methanol purification via distillation.

Coal-based methanol production

Coal is the only other significant commercial feedstock for methanol production and its use is concentrated in coal-rich China. The production of syngas from coal has been a commercial reality since the 1920s. The process also follows the three main steps of the natural gas process.

Significant detail regarding methanol production processes, including reformer technologies and comparative natural gas versus coal economics, can be provided separately.

Methyl Methacrylate (MMA)

Thu, 29 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

The manufacture of MMA consumed 1.5% of the 111.8 million metric tonnes of methanol produced in 2024. MMA is the commercially prominent member of the chemical family of methacrylic esters, which are typically monomers used in the polymerisation to acrylic plastics. Methacrylate polymers are prized for their clarity, colourability, colour compatibility, weatherability and ultraviolet light stability, allowing them to have both indoor and outdoor applications. These plastics are generally mature in their development but continue to find unique applications that support their growth.

Growth in MMA demand typically follows gasoline demand growth on a global basis. Asia accounts for more than half of world supply and demand and China more than half of Asian demand. Global growth in MTBE demand will predominantly be in China.

MMA can be made from a variety of different production technologies, with the predominant commercial method utilising a C3 process. Other more competitive processes have been developed with isobutylene and ethylene. MMSA maintains economic snapshots of MMA production costs.

MMA trade is currently characterised by imports into China, Korea, Taiwan and several SEA countries. Japan and Southeast Asia are major exporters and China is a dominant MMA importer. The US is a net exporter of MMA. PMMA and other MMA derivatives are also traded in large quantities, typically as part of prefabricated parts made in developed countries. A trade matrix showing MMA trade by MMSA region and country listings can be provided to clients separately.

MMSA maintains a detailed global database of MMA producers and consumers, as well as global supply and demand balances and forecasts through 2050.

Market Outlook: Basin your bets

Wed, 28 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Released last week for Energy Aspects subscribers, our latest Crude Oil analysis examines the complex dynamics affecting Cushing balances and US crude exports through summer 2025.

What you'll discover in this analysis:

How weak USGC export demand and Midcon light crude strength could alleviate June-August Cushing tightness.
Why high Murban availability from OPEC8+ production unwinding is limiting Asian WTI demand.
The critical role of Basin pipeline as a swing factor for Cushing balances.
How Cushing's ability to secure marginal Midland barrels could cap WTI timespreads upside.

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EU and IMO emissions regulations will increase LNG bunkering costs; could impact flows

Wed, 28 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Our latest analysis, first released for subscribers, reveals how EU and IMO emissions regulations will significantly impact LNG bunkering costs and potentially alter global LNG flows.

The IMO's surprisingly ambitious Global Fuel Standard could impose penalties of up to $10 million annually on LNG-powered vessels by 2030, whilst the EU's expanding Emissions Trading Scheme will add approximately $0.07/MMBtu to US-Europe shipping costs by 2026.

What you'll discover in this analysis:

How emissions charges could increase US-Europe LNG shipping costs by $0.40/MMBtu by 2035.
Why the EU Methane Regulation will complicate new deals between European importers and US exporters.
The potential impact on vessel selection and route economics.
How these regulations may influence the Trump administrations trade negotiations.

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OilX Trader Tool

Wed, 28 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

The OilX Trader Tool translates high-frequency fundamental data into actionable trading signals, helping you anticipate market movements before prices react.

By integrating OilX 's physical market data with EA Quant Analytics ' financial flow positioning metrics, the tool predicts how speculative traders will respond to changing fundamentals over a 1-3 week horizon.

View the trader tool in action below:

Traders using the OilX Trader Tool can:

Spot changes in positioning potential before price reacts.
Quantify signal strength and assess conviction.
Evaluate whether a trade idea is already reflected in positioning.
Gauge short-term momentum even when long-term fundamentals are stable.

Weak Q1 25 earnings show the OFS industry is in for a turbulent year

Thu, 22 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Recently released for Energy Aspects subscribers, our analysis reveals a challenging outlook for oil field services companies. Q1 2025 earnings for Baker Hughes, Halliburton, and SLB dropped by a third quarter-on-quarter, to a combined $1.7 billion, the first such decline since Q1 2024.

What you'll discover in this analysis:

Major OFS companies' earnings trends and industry health outlook for 2025.
Contrasting performance between tight oil activity and deepwater operations.
Tariff implications for OFS supply chains and equipment manufacturing.
Regional market performance across North America, Mexico, and Saudi Arabia.
Strategic responses to shareholder expectations during market turbulence.

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Energy Aspects named Commodity Research House of the Year at Energy Risk Awards 2025

Tue, 20 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Energy Aspects is proud to announce that it has been named Commodity Research House of the Year at the Energy Risk Awards 2025. This accolade recognises our commitment to delivering independent research and analysis across energy and broader commodity markets.

Over the past year, our proprietary models, data, and research have supported clients through a range of market developments — including shifts in OPEC+ production policy, the Waha gas price collapse, and risks related to speculative positioning in European gas. These insights have helped clients manage risk and respond to market events with confidence.

Our success has also been driven by strategic acquisitions and internal innovation, which have shaped Energy Aspects into a trusted cross-commodity, cross-asset intelligence platform. The integration of EA Quant Analytics has enhanced our ability to combine physical and financial market analysis across the commodity complex. OilX, now an official OPEC secondary source, provides clients with real-time crude flow data relied upon by the world’s most influential producer group. We further broadened our coverage through the acquisitions of Medley Advisors - whose macroeconomic and policy research strengthens our ability to link commodity market developments with global economic and regulatory trends - and, most recently, MMSA, which expands our reach into petrochemicals and methanol markets.

“This award reflects the tireless efforts of our entire team in building a research offering that integrates physical and financial views of commodity markets, alongside macroeconomic research,” said Dr. Amrita Sen, Founder and Director of Market Intelligence.

We have also continued to invest in technology to improve delivery and usability. EA Live provides real-time commentary throughout the day and during key market events, while DIMI, our AI assistant, helps clients quickly find the latest views, charts, and data on demand. These tools, alongside our API and Data Explorer, enable clients to access and apply our analysis in ways that best suit their workflows.

“Strategic acquisitions, paired with internal innovation, have been central to building Energy Aspects into a cross-commodity, cross-asset intelligence platform trusted by the world’s leading energy and financial institutions,” said Fredrik Fosse, Chief Executive.

First LNG at Qatar’s North Field Expansion due late Q1 26 based on EA’s proprietary construction curves

Mon, 19 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Released last week for Energy Aspects subscribers, our latest Global LNG report on Qatar's North Field expansion projects uses our new proprietary construction curves and satellite imagery analysis.

This exclusive report provides crucial insights into the revised timeline for North Field East (NFE) and North Field South (NFS) projects that will significantly impact global LNG supply balances.

What you'll discover in this report:

The true commissioning timeline for Qatar's massive LNG expansion based on our exclusive satellite tracking methodology.
How our proprietary construction curves reveal a different story from QatarEnergy's official statements.
Why specific infrastructure components are creating critical bottlenecks in the development schedule.
The quantifiable impact these timeline shifts will have on global LNG balances through 2028.

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The anatomy of a stop out - Discretionary funds in TTF Quant Analytics

Mon, 19 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Discretionary fund net-long TTF positions peaked at 369k lots on 7 February, declined by 30% after geopolitical developments triggered reductions.
Trump–Putin call on 12 February triggered significant financial flow risks, causing drop in TTF prices, increased market volatility.
Discretionary hedge funds only reduced net-long positions by 37k lots, despite 9% price drop; positions remained in the money.
Drawdown constraints in late February cause position exodus, exacerbating the price decline.

Discretionary fund net-long TTF positioning reached record high of 369k lots on 7 February before experiencing exodus, falling by 30% to 261k lots currently. The build-up of these positions, along with the potential risks of unwinding, is something we have covered in depth in our EA live posts and Gas Quant Weeklies. This insight breaks down all our recent coverage, explaining in detail the financial flow mechanics that have driven TTF prices down by over 30% in the last month.

Market setup

Discretionary funds reinforced their net-long TTF positions from mid-December 2024, with the expectation that Russian gas flows into Ukraine would cease in the new year, which duly materialised. This increase in net-long positions continued until 7 February, at which point they hit an all-time high of 369k lots, with gross notional discretionary Value at Risk (VaR) reaching €0.66bn, the highest level (at the time) since September 2022 (see Figure 1). However, the final increases in the net position was largely driven by an increase in options delta as prices rose (see Figure 2), rather than increased futures positioning (the investment fund category, comprising CTAs and discretionary funds in the MiFID Commitment of Traders report, includes both futures and options delta). As such, options dealers supported prices as they hedged their sold calls by buying the underlying futures.

Fig 1: Gross notional discretionary hedge fund VaR, €bn

Financial flows were then primed to add to any downside impetus, given how stretched to the long side they had become. CTAs were at maximum-long positioning, with overall positions in crowded territory, which our research shows is often associated with price relief and even reversals. Furthermore, net market option delta hit a high of 690k lots by 11 February, adding the risk of option dealer unwinding to the mix (see Figure 3).

Fig 2: Net total option delta (call–put, scaled) vs discretionary net position (k lots)

Fig 3: Option market delta, k lots

The catalyst

News broke on 12 February (just after the TTF market closed) that US President Donald Trump had called Russian President Vladimir Putin and agreed to instruct their teams to “start negotiations immediately”. Soon after this, we released an EA live post titled “Net-long TTF speculative positions at risk after Trump–Putin call on Ukraine”. Here we flagged several financial flow risks that would add to downside caused by the news. First, we highlighted the 44k lots of long-driven open interest recently added onto the Sum-25 contract, with VWAP levels between €51.50/MWh and €54.75/MWh (see Figure 4). These price levels posed key-risk levels, as the traders would likely be forced to close these positions as they start drawing down. Additionally, we noted that a large price drop on the market open would result in significant selling from option dealers, particularly around large gamma concentrations through €55/MWh and €50/MWh (see Figure 5), as they reduce their long delta hedges. Finally, we added that CTA selling would pick up if prices moved through the same level, adding further downside risk.

TTF prices dropped by over €4/MWh on 13 February, crossing through many of the key-risk levels we flagged the evening before. Many of the recent Sum-25 longs that we flagged to be at risk were closed out, as reflected in OI decreases and weakening of the Sum-25–Win-25 spread. In our Gas Quant Weekly on that day, we highlighted that further downside was likely given the continued risks. For instance, we flagged that if prices continue to drop, we would expect to see significant selling from option dealers, as their option hedging activity is symmetric. In particular, if prices dropped through €50/MWh, at which 23k (20k) lots of calls (puts) sat in the front month (Mar-25). Furthermore, we flagged large CTA selling levels at €50.50/MWh and €49.50/MWh. We also stressed that prices were already weakening before the news due to factors such as what might be the last cold spell of winter, large volumes of LNG set to arrive in Europe and over-positioning for Sum-25 delivery.

Fig 4: Outright Sum-25 price level €/MWh of open interest changes, k lots

Fig 5: Gamma concentration levels, front month

Sticky longs

Despite prices dropping by 9% in the front from 7–14 February, discretionary hedge funds cut just 37k lots (10%) from their net-long position. This was less than we expected, particularly when factoring in that a large part of this cut was a result of a decrease in options delta. In the following Gas Quant Weekly, published on 20 February, we outlined several reasons for this. One was that some funds were clearly buying the dip with strong resistance points at €54/MWh, adding new longs. But the main reason was because 328k lots of the discretionary fund longs were added during 2024, at prices well below the level at the time, thus remaining in the money. Gas prices had also rallied significantly in early 2025 and, although hedge funds were enduring a drawdown on their positions, losses had not yet reached a point where risk limits for many funds come into play.

We presented the cumulative discretionary hedge fund PnL and drawdown (from the peak) as ratios of VaR to quantify price drop losses (see Figure 6). At this point, the drawdown ratio from the peak was -2.6 on Friday (14 February), with the PnL to VaR ratio at 0.7 (revised to 0.4 post MiFID data release). We also flagged the €41.00/MWh price level to pose a key risk level where further longs would be forced to close, as this is the price at which PnL to VaR would breach -3.0, the level at which many hedge funds today have risk limits. Note that here we assumed that discretionary funds' VaR limits reset annually (their overall position remained profitable).

Fig 6: Discretionary hedge fund PnL and drawdown as a ratio of VaR

Position exodus

Drawdown constraints finally forced discretionary funds to cut positions in the week commencing 24 February. As prices weakened on storage target–related headlines, the PnL to VaR ratio dropped to -1.6 on Tuesday (25 February), falling further to -2.7 on Wednesday (see Figure 6, revised to -1.9 and -3.0 post MiFID data release, respectively). Consequently, many long positions were forced to be closed as risk limits neared, further exacerbating the price drop to near €41.00/MWh in Sum-25. CTA selling and option dealer hedging, risks we continued to flag, also added to the selloff. We estimate long OI decreasing by 33.2k lots from Monday–Wednesday (24-26 February) across the front six contracts, with deferred (after the front six contracts) OI dropping by 29.4k lots in the same period (see Figure 7). The MiFID report released in the week following (w/c 3 March) confirms that discretionary funds cut their net-long position by 65k lots over the course of this week.

Fig 7: Discretionary and front six and back OI longs and shorts, k lots

Conclusion

This insight highlights just how important financial flows can be to pricing in commodity markets, especially when positioning becomes stretched. We’ve continued to see discretionary fund drawdowns increase this week, with the VaR that they hold remaining high despite large position cuts, due to elevated volatility. In the near term, we expect limited bullish participation from discretionary funds given their current deep drawdown and VaR limits, although there is further downside risk from long closures if drawdowns increase further. Conversely, CTAs have potential to support prices, given their maximum-short positioning, along with option dealer flows should prices rally past buying triggers and option open interest concentrations.

Permian H1 24 gas production forecast lowered on pipeline outages, limited local demand

Sun, 18 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Drawdown constraints in late February cause position exodus, exacerbating the price decline. We are reducing our Permian gas production forecast by 0.2 bcf/d through H1 24 on pipeline maintenance, limited local demand.
Bottlenecks should alleviate this summer on the Q3 24 start-up of Matterhorn Pipeline’s 2.5 bcf/d of Permian exit capacity.
HDDs realised 30% below average from February–March, with shoulder-season demand declines set to further strain pipeline exit capacity.
Waha negative cash price realisations are a risk as Gulf Coast Xpress and NGPL maintenance continue through end-May.
Upstream production dynamics are unchanged, with marginal crude output growth y/y supporting gas gains once pipeline capacity expands.

We are cutting our Permian gas production forecast by 0.2 bcf/d in Q2 24 as pipeline maintenance and depressed local demand combine to shrink the outlets available for the basin’s output in the shoulder season. Permian production peaked at 17.7 bcf/d in November 2023 and reached a monthly average apex in December at 17.0 bcf/d. We do not anticipate the basin will return to a monthly average of 17.0 bcf/d until June 2024, which is also the month our crude team expects Permian monthly crude production to exceed last November’s peak. Flows have only topped that threshold on one day since the end of freeze-offs in early January, registering 17.0 bcf/d on 31 March. We expect the 2.5 bcf/d Matterhorn Pipeline will commence operations in August 2024, alleviating Permian exit capacity bottlenecks.

Our timeline for Matterhorn matches the project’s internal schedule. Project developer MPLX confirmed in its last earnings call that the pipeline was on schedule to start in Q3 24. Permian exit capacity is currently around 18.6 bcf/d, nearly 1.0 bcf/d higher y/y due to the recent compressor expansions along Permian Highway (0.6 bcf/d) and Whistler (0.5 bcf/d). Matterhorn’s start-up will raise total exit capacity to 21.1 bcf/d. Permian gas output is unlikely to fill Matterhorn capacity with new production before late 2025, though we anticipate a return to m/m gains of 0.15 bcf/d in the basin in H2 24 and an exit-to-exit rate of 0.9 bcf/d y/y, supported by strong oil pricing and the spare west–east capacity.

The current pipeline network is unlikely to be sufficient to maximise Permian production until Matterhorn enters service, given flow restrictions that will be caused by maintenance. Gulf Coast Xpress will begin a series of overhauls to three of its compressors on 9 April, restricting up to 0.3 bcf/d of capacity intermittently through end-May. Northern Natural Gas will also conduct assorted works on its Permian exit lines from 16 April–2 May, with between 0.1–0.3 bcf/d of flows impacted. Whistler does not publicly post its outage schedule as an intrastate pipeline, but deliveries from Whistler onto interstate pipelines indicate flows have yet to recover from reported March maintenance. Further work on NGPL’s Amarillo Line in May and ongoing work on the El Paso system will also restrict the basin’s exit capacity and help choke production gains in Q2 24.

Mild weather has also played a role in stagnant Permian production in 2024. Our Permian pipeline model includes an assumption for 0.5–1.0 bcf/d of local demand to help soak up the basin’s production and limit the amount of outbound gas stressing the constrained exit capacity. But HDDs in the West South Central realised 33% below the 10-year normal from February–March to limit heating demand. This trend is set to continue, not only due to standard shoulder-season demand declines but also with only two days in the 14-day window estimated to have more than 1.0 HDD, despite a 10-year average of 2.5 HDDs over that period.

Power load in ERCOT’s West Texas zone is up by 7% y/y since the start of February despite the mild weather on expanding upstream electrification in the oil sector. But renewables generation has risen to meet this demand and will continue to pressure in-basin gas generation. Installed solar capacity is up by 4% y/y in West Texas to 6 GW. We expect ERCOT wind generation will rise by nearly 20% y/y over the injection season to 13.6 GW, including by 33% in Q2 24 following Q2 23’s low wind speeds in the Midcontinent. The lack of local gas demand is taxing Permian gas exit capacity just as maintenance season intensifies.

Prices within the Permian have been depressed due to overall lower Henry Hub cash prices and the constraints driving bearish basis pressure. Waha traded negative intraday irregularly throughout March and realised at a negative daily cash price on 15 March, over the weekend strip of 22–25 March, and at -$0.22/mmbtu for today’s (5 April) delivery. Today’s initial pipeline nominations sunk by 0.2 bcf/d d/d to 16.2 bcf/d. Delivered cash prices at Waha averaged $0.44/mmbtu for the month of March, the lowest monthly realisation since April 2020. Waha risks further downside and potential negative pricing through Q2 24 as more maintenance commences. with yesterday's selloff in both Henry Hub and Waha basis forwards, Waha's May-24 delivered contract is now trading at -$0.02/mmbtu. Downside risks will alleviate once the bulk of maintenance concludes and upon the startup of Matterhorn.

Our reduced production estimate is not based on any change to our upstream or crude production forecasts. Our crude team still expects 2% y/y growth from US producers, with the Permian carrying a higher share than other basins. This will come as E&Ps focus on efficiencies, with faster completion speeds and longer laterals more than offsetting declines in deployed crews and rigs. We expect Permian gas production will grow by 7% y/y, aided by the higher sequential gains in H2 24 once gas infrastructure catches up to productive capacity.

Fig 1: Permian gas production forecast, bcf/d

Fig 2: Permian pipelines and local demand, bcf/d

Fig 3: ERCOT wind generation forecast, GW

Fig 4: Waha delivered price forecast, $/mmbtu

Three-month delay to OPEC+ voluntary cut unwind likely; UAE quota increase may get delayed

Sun, 18 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

We expect the unwinding of voluntary cuts by eight OPEC+ countries to be delayed by three months to April.
Three-month delay reduces our commercial crude builds from 0.6 mb/d to 0.1 mb/d; longer delay would remove builds entirely.
OPEC+ may discuss a longer delay but, with President Trump incoming, we think the group will prefer retaining flexibility.
Implications of Trump’s trade tariffs and Iran sanctions policies are key variables for the market and OPEC+ to assess.
Full OPEC+ group may also delay increase in UAE production quota to align it with voluntary cut unwind.

We expect tomorrow’s OPEC+ meeting (5 December) to delay the unwind of the voluntary production cut through peak refinery maintenance—most likely by three months—as the group will not want to add barrels during seasonal crude builds. Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has long maintained that the group wants to ensure inventories remain below the five-year average. The group is likely to remain reactive and cautious given the numerous uncertainties about how the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US will impact oil markets. Our current balances assume the group unwinds the cuts from January and a three-month delay, for instance, would reduce our commercial crude builds from 0.6 mb/d to 0.1 mb/d. A delay of four or more months would remove these builds entirely.

Decisions about the schedule for unwinding the 2.2 mb/d of additional voluntary cuts are taken by the eight countries participating in those cuts. The only item that would need to be agreed by all OPEC+ ministers is any change to the plans for the UAE production quota, which is currently set to gradually rise by 0.3 mb/d over January–September 2025. We believe this may get pushed back to align it with the delayed start to unwinding voluntary cuts, although this is not yet certain.

We understand the group may also consider a four- or six-month delay—and there has been market chatter suggesting the delay could be as long as 12 months. The argument for such a move would be to deliver a bullish surprise, but this would reduce the optionality to make further adjustments during H1 25, as the trajectory for inventories and Trump’s policies become clearer. In particular, we think Saudi Arabia will want to see a clear physical impact from any Trump policies before supporting OPEC+ policy changes. As such, we think the group will opt for a delay of three months to retain more flexibility next year.

Caution and compliance remain the watchwords

Given the challenging demand outlook this year, with China’s weakness and expectations of surging non-OPEC supply next year (even though it disappointed this year), many in the market believe the OPEC+ deal must be on the brink of collapse. But we maintain our view that this is incorrect. It is true that there are frustrations within the group, both over the compliance laggards and the fact that many traders dismiss the group’s ability to manage the market, but we still sense a widespread acceptance within OPEC+ that continuing to collectively limit production is a better strategy than any of the available alternatives.

A major focus for OPEC+ leaders this year has been improving compliance, particularly from Iraq and Kazakhstan—the Russian and Saudi energy ministers met with both countries again last week. There was not much follow-through by either country on promises made in April or July, but there has been more action since August. Iraq has reduced output by almost 0.3 mb/d and planned maintenance has improved Kazakh compliance. Neither country is managing full compliance, especially if promised compensation cuts are factored in, but overproduction has been significantly reined in since the summer, a shift that the market may not have fully recognised.

Fig 1: Current OPEC+ crude supply forecast, mb/d

Ongoing issues at Kazakhstan’s Tengiz field and the outage at Iraq’s Basrah refinery are also curtailing production in the short term.

Consensus views on 2025 balances are starting to shift, with various analysts quietly revising projections of huge 2+ mb/d builds lower. The OPEC+ delay will provide more momentum to this shift, but significant uncertainty will hang over next year until there is more clarity on Trump administration policies. These range from the potential for tariffs to weigh on global demand and efforts to boost US production through to potential tightening of Iran sanctions and more. OPEC+ countries may therefore need to further delay the unwinding schedule in the spring depending on the outlook at that point, which we believe they will be able to agree if necessary.

Fig 2: Impact of three-month delay by country, mb/d

Webinar on-demand: Emissions 2025 focus

Sat, 17 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Our expert analysts Trevor Sikorski (Head of Natural Gas and Emissions), Ben Lee (Senior Emissions Analyst) and Anuran Khan (Senior Carbon Markets Analyst) shared their insights on the future of emissions pricing, projecting trends and expectations as we look forward to 2025 and 2026.

During this webinar, our expert analysts discussed:

The changing fundamentals in the EU and UK compliance markets and what this means for price direction.
How political uncertainty in North America is affecting the European markets.
The outlook for the offsets market as the Paris Agreement markets take shape.

Webinar recorded on 18 February 2025

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Distilling the drivers of oil market volatility

Sat, 17 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Understanding the drivers of prompt crude futures volatility is crucial for oil market participants to develop useful risk management strategies, as the nature of trading today is that most manage risk and market positions to a given volatility limit. We present a method to decompose Brent volatility into its most important drivers, complementing our Brent quant model that focuses on flow-based leading indicators that impact short-term price action.

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Rising PJM solar installations not enough to offset load growth, retirements through 2030

Fri, 16 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Released for subscribers, the North America Power Insight delivers expert analysis of critical market trends, policy impacts, and supply-demand dynamics across North American power markets, providing actionable intelligence for both tactical trading decisions and strategic planning.

In this insight you will read about:

Uncover why PJM's ambitious solar expansion plans may not be enough to prevent a looming capacity crisis.
Discover the surprising timeline challenges delaying critical gas infrastructure and their market implications.
Explore our exclusive analysis of how data centre growth is reshaping power demand forecasts through 2030.
Learn which specific regions within PJM face the highest reliability risks and what this means for pricing.
Access our proprietary forecasting models revealing when and why reserve margins will reach critical thresholds.

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North America Gas & Power Outlook : Bring your own generation

Fri, 16 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Released for subscribers , the North America Power Monthly Outlook gives you a comprehensive analysis of power market supply and demand fundamentals across North America.

In this market outlook, we cover:

Canadian tariff uncertainties while aluminium and steel tariffs take effect.
PJM navigates data centre demand surge and reaches capacity pricing compromise.
ERCOT faces bearish summer outlook as renewable additions outpace load growth.
Northeast markets influenced by Hydro-Québec's ongoing drought conditions.
Western regions benefit from above-normal snowpack, pressuring CAISO futures.
Regulatory shifts in Ontario and California set to transform regional market dynamics.

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Move over, America, Jeff Currie is bullish Europe

Thu, 08 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects.

EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Amrita Sen sat down with Jeff Currie just before the OPEC+ accelerated unwind decision. Key points of discussion were:

Jeff says Capex boom in Europe will rival anything any other country is seeing: tech, defence, infrastructure spending are all bullish commodities.
He thinks a recession is coming and the next three to six months will be painful, but is bullish on oil and copper at the back of the curve.
Jeff also believes US shale cannot sustain low prices for three months, neither can OPEC+ and sees tariff policy pivot coming.

Podcast recorded on 8 May 2025.

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Rising LNG project costs to impact 2025 FIDs as developers seek higher tolling fees

Tue, 06 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Recently released for subscribers, the North America Gas and Power insight reveals how Trump administration policies, including a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium, are creating unexpected headwinds for developers who now find themselves in challenging negotiations with off-takers over tolling fees.

In this insight you will read about:

The probability assessments for seven key US LNG projects.
Critical factors determining FID likelihood.
The strategic equity deals that are reshaping the competitive landscape.

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Webinar on-demand: Live insights - Tackling the sanctioned oil tracking challenge

Thu, 01 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

The escalating tariff war is dramatically reshaping global oil demand patterns. Evolving US foreign policies toward Iran and Russia introduce constant risks of tighter sanctions that could abruptly disrupt established balances and oil flows. Simultaneously, the shifting dynamics of Russian oil movement through various sanctions have created complexity that directly impacts your global demand forecasting.

Watch Global Crude Lead Livia Gallarati , Cargo Tracking Product Owner Captain Ranjith Raja , Cargo Tracking Sales Manager Fleur Gindre discuss:

A global oil market overview covering the escalating tariff war and how this is shaping global oil demand.
Update on US foreign policy on Iran and Russia, and how risks of tighter sanctions will impact balances and oil flows.
A deep dive into the flow of Russian oil during the various phases of the sanctions and how they compare from a global demand perspective.
The need for alternate data points, including satellite monitoring, to validate and track the shadow fleet.
A live demo of our Cargo Tracking tool demonstrating how leading organisations are mitigating market risk in times of extreme uncertainty.

Webinar recorded on 8 April 2025

The energy markets, post-US tariffs, are a fluid environment; insights provided were current at the time of publishing.

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Podcast: Investing opportunities amid chaos with PIMCO's Greg Sharenow

Thu, 01 May 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Greg Sharenow, a managing director and portfolio management group leader at PIMCO.

They discuss:

Uncertainty driven by US government policies is creating opportunities and challenges, but portfolio diversification discussions, particularly in Asia, continue.
Asian investors exhibit caution, not yet divesting from the US, though some perceive the US as less investible than in the past.
PIMCO has cut global growth forecasts with survey data already indicating a sharp slowdown. Their key focus is now on high-frequency demand data for jet fuel, diesel and other commodities.
Despite prevailing uncertainties, this period is considered more favourable for investing in commodities compared to 2020 and 2022, as volatility is more contained.

Podcast recorded on 1 May 2025.

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Global Refinery Capacity

Wed, 30 Apr 2025 09:22:15 GMT

In today's volatile energy landscape, staying ahead requires access to critical market intelligence.

Our latest infographic delivers precisely that, a visual breakdown of Global Refinery Capacity that transforms complex data into actionable insights.

Understanding Global Refinery Capacity enables you to assess market dynamics, optimise supply chains, and make informed investment decisions. It provides insights into potential bottlenecks, influences pricing strategies, and helps anticipate shifts in product availability.

Quant Analytics Demo - IE Week Reception

Fri, 25 Apr 2025 09:22:15 GMT

During our IE Week Reception, Dr Nicky Ferguson, Head of Analytics, demoed our Quant Analytics platform.

He showed how traders can respond to high-frequency fundamentals by leveraging OilX’s nowcasting capabilities to predict financial flows.

The demo recording covered:

Nicky’s views on the current commodity market conditions
How Quant Analytics can give you comprehensive updates on positioning, risk, and trading activity of major financial traders, including CTAs, discretionary hedge funds, risk parity funds, and ETFs.

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Webinar on-demand: Global Trade War – What Next?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Despite rallies after President Trump announced a 90-day “pause”, equities and oil are still down, US 30-year bond yields are close to 18-year highs, and US/German 10-year bond spreads are at two-year lows.

To make sense of the markets, Medley Advisors hosted a Webinar on 14 March for Energy Aspects subscribers, which we are pleased to make available for you to watch on-demand.

Watch the Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen , China and Trade Analyst Brian Jackson , US Macroeconomic Policy Analyst Michael Redmond , Mexico and Latin America Analyst Fernando Posadas , and European Macroeconomic Policy Analyst Pepijn Bergsen , discuss:

Has Trump stepped back from the cliff or just stayed execution?
Has a global tariff plan turned into China-only embargo combined with a lower-rate revenue-raising programme for the US Treasury?
Will Europe accept a 10% tariff as the price of peace? Will the USMCA converge further or break apart?
What does this mean for monetary policy?

Webinar recorded on 15 April 2025

The energy markets, post-US tariffs, are a fluid environment; insights provided were current at the time of publishing.

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Summer Norwegian gas production outlook lowered on technical capacity cuts at key fields

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 09:22:15 GMT

In this insight you will read about:

The actual impact on European gas markets versus market perception.
Why recent market reactions may be disproportionate to real-world effects.
Why residual industrial demand is less elastic in Europe.

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Energy 360 Digest: Scar tissue

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Released for subscribers, the latest EA 360 Digest provides essential insights on how interconnected market dynamics impact your strategic decision-making.

With this article you can:

Examine the complex interplay between crude oil market fundamentals and recent price volatility affecting global energy markets.
Understand how significant international trade policy shifts are reshaping economic outlooks across major energy-consuming regions.
Explore the strategic decisions behind OPEC+ production adjustments and their intended consequences for market stability.
Analyse the critical factors affecting compliance rates among key oil-producing nations and their impact on global supply balances.
Discover the surprising timeline challenges delaying critical production infrastructure and their market implications.
Compare historical US production growth patterns with current trends to understand fundamental shifts in development strategies.
Investigate how evolving basin economics and breakeven thresholds are influencing investment decisions across major producing regions.
Assess the technical constraints creating unexpected headwinds for production growth forecasts in key supply areas.

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Webinar on-demand: Fear vs fundamentals - how to navigate tariffs and OPEC+

Wed, 09 Apr 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Energy Aspects' leading analysts break down how to make sense of global markets and what our expectations are for markets.

After a tumultuous weekend following the announcement of unprecedented US tariffs and steeper-than-expected Saudi OSP cuts for May, the global oil and broader markets are in a state of flux.

To make sense of the markets, we hosted an Oil Webinar yesterday for our subscribers, which we are pleased to make available for you to watch on-demand.

Watch the Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen , Head of Geopolitics Richard Bronze , Head of Oil Demand Koen Wessels and Head of Analytics Dr Nicky Ferguson discuss:

The escalating tariff war: The impact of Trump’s tariffs, how global markets are responding and adjusting.
OPEC+ and crude prices: With OPEC's decision to increase oil production, downward pressure on crude will remain, and crude falling below $50/bbl in the near term is a possibility.
The US and global economic implications: With Fed Chair Jay Powell acknowledging last week the risk of persistent price pressures from tariffs and suggesting the Fed could take its time before cutting rates added to growth worries.

Webinar recorded on 8 April 2025

The energy markets, post-US tariffs, are a fluid environment; insights provided were current at the time of publishing.

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Nowcasting: Introduction & user deep-dive

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Discover how an advanced analytical approach can used in energy markets, explaining both the conceptual framework and practical applications.

This paper outlines how cutting-edge technologies like satellite imagery and machine learning are transforming traditional market analysis methods.

You will gain insight into how real-time data collection and processing techniques can enhance market intelligence, particularly for professionals seeking to overcome the limitations of traditional, lagged reporting systems in commodity markets.

What you'll learn:

What nowcasting is and how it differs from traditional forecasting in oil markets.
How nowcasting combines satellite imagery, vessel tracking and machine learning to create real-time oil market insights.
The practical applications of nowcasting for making timely decisions in volatile oil markets.
How nowcasting provides a more accurate starting point for forecasting than traditional methods.

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Oilx Digest

Fri, 04 Apr 2025 09:22:15 GMT

In today's volatile oil markets, having access to timely, expert analysis can make the difference between capitalising on an opportunity or missing it entirely.

OilX Digest is specifically designed for energy traders, investment managers, funds, and banks who need to stay informed of critical market developments and understand their likely impact on pricing. Our team of industry experts continuously monitors global oil markets, delivering concise, actionable intelligence as developments occur.

What you'll learn:

Real-time alerts on key market developments that influence oil pricing.
Expert analysis of potential market impacts, helping you make informed trading decisions.
Seamless integration with your existing systems via multiple data formats.
A competitive edge through early awareness of market-moving events.
Time savings by receiving only the most relevant, actionable intelligence.

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Macro Quant : Linking macro regimes and financial flows to commodity markets

Thu, 03 Apr 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Our latest Macro Quant enhancements have gained a lot of interest given current market volatility. Traders are seeing the benefits of quickly identifying shifts in growth, inflation, and defensive factors to contextualise commodity price movements, enabling them to act on live insights.

Watch Dr Nicky Ferguson, Head of Analytics at Energy Aspects, provide a 5-minute demo of our Macro Quant service

The demo covers:

An overview of the real-time Quant Analytics dashboard, illustrating how advanced quantitative models capture and classify trading flows.
A deep dive into the Paper Balance functionality, demonstrating how daily updates reveal speculative positioning and market signals.
A walkthrough of Quant Live for intra-day commentary and instant market alerts, highlighting its role in timely decision-making.
Exploration of the Quant Weekly research publication, showcasing how forward-looking insights are generated and delivered.
A review of the API and data integration capabilities, showing how traders can access historical and real-time data in multiple formats.

Insights into how customisable charting and the Data Explorer tool enable tailored analysis of market trends..

IECs earnings show the shift back to oil and gas is a work in progress

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 09:22:15 GMT

International energy companies’ profitability declined each quarter last year even as crude production grew.
Combined returns in the form of dividends and share buybacks exceeded Capex every quarter last year.
IECs are trimming transition spending amid weak new energy returns and maintaining the focus on oil and gas.
Major IECs’ shale investments have peaked, will be managed to maximise free cash flow for returns or reinvestment in other themes.
Several IECs planning to leverage gas supplies and renewable or carbon capture expertise to power hyperscale data centres.

The major international energy companies (IECs) saw combined net income drop for a fourth straight quarter in Q4 24, with total 2024 net income of $125 billion down by more than one-fifth from the $160 billion in 2023. They did manage to achieve a combined return on average capital employed of over 15%. The group also combined to return more than $37 billion to shareholders in Q4 24 in the form of dividends and share buybacks. This was down by 8% q/q but still exceeded Capex for a fourth straight quarter and for ten of the last eleven quarters. The IECs’ combined cash returns to shareholders of $142 billion in 2024 were only marginally down from the record $145 billion returned in 2023, highlighting the resilience of the Western majors’ business models even as prices generally declined. However, Capex also increased for the fourth straight quarter and the Capex/revenue ratio climbed, meaning IECs will need to improve their capital efficiency this year for shareholders to continue being remunerated at these levels.

Shale oil approaches middle age

Shale will continue to be a key theme for the IECs, but the direction of travel is clearly towards a greater focus on gas to feed growing LNG demand, while tight oil will soon approach a plateau that will generate cash flow to be reinvested in other resource themes. All four Permian producers in the group plan to spend less on tight oil y/y in 2025. Both ExxonMobil and Chevron are stepping down Permian Capex, with 2024 likely to remain the peak spend year, and Chevron expects its Permian growth to slow from a 16% CAGR over the last five years to a 5–6% CAGR going forward. While both companies have a few years of shale growth left in the tank, the focus is firmly on operational efficiency, extending resource life and generating increasing free cash flow as the basin matures.

ConocoPhillips laid out an explicit plan to reduce Lower 48 spending by $1.4 billion in 2025 while raising Capex for long-cycle projects by $400 million, and explained that it was moving legacy positions in the Eagle Ford and Bakken to an “optimum plateau”. The company still plans to achieve low single-digit production growth with a 15% decrease in spend (when accounting for last year’s Marathon acquisition) by continuing to increase the number of wells and lateral feet it completes with a static rig and frac crew count. BP was much slower to ramp up its tight oil infrastructure, but shale unit BPX plans to have its fourth and final Permian processing facility running by mid-year, positioning it to reduce spending and grow with increased capital efficiency going forward.

The European majors have focused more on shale gas, with recent actions showing a renewed interest in the area. TotalEnergies has made a series of deals to take non-operating stakes in Eagle Ford dry gas assets from EOG and private operator Lewis Energy, which play into their plans to start exporting from the future Rio Grande LNG project. The company might not be done increasing exposure to US shale, with the CEO musing during a recent earnings call that he would like to obtain more US gas and may be looking for opportunities to acquire stakes from tight oil producers with growing associated gas volumes. Equinor also acquired substantial non-operated shale gas production, taking a stake in Expand Energy’s Northern Marcellus assets, while Repsol highlighted a resumption of activity in its Marcellus and Eagle Ford shale assets this year.

As US shale matures, the IECs seem to think Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale should take a more prominent role. The geology has been derisked for some time, but Shell and Chevron believe it could be time to accelerate activity there, with inflation coming under control and the new Milei administration removing capital controls and pursuing other policies to make the country more inviting for foreign investors. Chevron plans to speed up production growth at its Loma Campana and El Trapial assets and is actively looking at a midstream opportunity for a stake in a pipeline that would take crude from the Neuquen basin to a deepwater export terminal. With a robust mix of IEC and independent producers and an improving operating environment we expect Argentina unconventional production to nearly double from current levels by the time it peaks in the early 2030s.

Dropping in on the AI power demand wave

Another increasingly common theme across the group was the desire to ride the wave of AI-led growth in power generation. Chevron, ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips all highlighted the increasing volumes of Permian-associated gas that could potentially be used to generate power off-grid and behind-the-meter to support the demand from AI hyperscalers. They all stressed there was no intent to become merchant power players selling into the grid for utility returns, instead focusing on signing power purchase agreements (PPAs) to backstop demand for premium customers.

Chevron emphasised the nearly 5 GW of gas-fired power generation it already runs at facilities like Gorgon LNG, Tengiz and its refinery system, and has already ordered seven of GE Vernova’s largest turbines for delivery in late 2026. ExxonMobil stated it has already contracted for more than 6.7 MtCO2 for transport and storage, positioning it to capture business from data centres looking for truly decarbonised power generation. The European majors are looking to ride the AI wave in their own style, highlighting the ability to integrate their renewables (to lower overall costs) with batteries and natural gas back-up generation for 24/7 reliability to pursue PPAs with data centres. ENI highlighted a plan to combine renewables, gas-fired power and carbon capture and storage to provide 500 MW of power to a hyperscale data centre at one of its sites.

Less ambition for transition

The IECs seem to have entirely embraced the general industry-wide trend away from a rapid transition to renewables and back to core competencies in oil and gas. BP, under activist investor pressure, was the most notable example of this trend, exiting the Empire Wind project offshore US and decapitalising the rest of its offshore wind business by forming a joint venture, JERA Nex bp. Equinor decided to move forward with Empire Wind, with the unappealing alternative of facing substantial cancellation fees, but is expecting lower returns than on the rest of its portfolio. Equinor spent about $1 billion less in 2024 than it initially planned, with a substantial portion being unexecuted onshore wind projects, and it now has a portfolio production capacity target of 10–12 GW by 2030 rather than its previous 12–16 GW. Shell also took impairments on some offshore wind projects and dropped several early-stage hydrogen projects as it high-graded its new energy portfolio.

The Anatomy of a Stop Out: Financial Flow Analysis in TTF Markets

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Understanding market structure through financial flows

Financial flows play a critical role in market pricing across all asset classes. For traders and risk managers navigating volatile environments, understanding positioning dynamics, liquidity, and risk constraints is essential for effective decision-making. Our research applies this flow-based systematic approach across energy, metals, agriculture, and financial markets, providing crucial context that fundamental analysis alone cannot deliver.

In early February 2025, discretionary fund net-long positioning in TTF peaked at a record 369k lots at €54/MWh. By March, positioning had dropped 30% to 261k lots, with prices declining to €40/MWh.

The summary below consists of excerpts from recent EA Quant research and highlights how our flow-based analysis enabled our clients to anticipate and manage risks during this significant market shift.

Our quantitative analysis of the TTF market revealed critical warning signals, market conditions ripe for a sharp reversal:

Discretionary funds reaching all-time high positioning of 369k lots by February 7th, with VaR at €0.66bn (Figure 1)
Final position increases were driven by options delta accumulation rather than outright futures buying, making them more sensitive to price reversals
CTAs at maximum-long positioning, a condition our research associates with potential corrections
Net option delta reaching 690k lots by February 11th, increasing the risk of forced dealer hedging and position unwinding

Risk Assessment Following Market Catalysts

When news broke of a Trump-Putin call on Ukraine negotiations on February 12th, we immediately flagged specific risks:

Long-driven open interest in the Sum-25 contract, with VWAP levels between €51.50- 54.75/MWh vulnerable to unwinding
Gamma concentrations at key downside levels (€55/MWh, €50/MWh, and below) heightened dealer hedging risks,
Technical levels where larger CTA trend-follower selling would accelerate

Quantifying Position Vulnerability

In our February 20th analysis, we explained why discretionary funds had only reduced positions by 10% despite the initial price drop:

Most positions remained in profit, having been established at lower price levels
We presented PnL-to-VaR ratios to quantify position vulnerability (Figure 2) €41.00/MWh highlighted as a key risk level where PnL-to-VaR would breach -3.0, a common risk limit at mult-strat funds, likely triggering further position reductions.

Position Exodus Analysis

Drawdown constraints forced significant position reductions in late February, as our analysis had indicated:

PnL-to-VaR ratios deteriorated to -2.7 by February 26th
Predicted long OI decreases were later confirmed by MiFID data
CTA selling and option dealer hedging amplified price movements

By early March, discretionary funds had further reduced long exposure, with TTF prices settling near €40/MWh.

Figure 1: TTF Daily Speculative Length Breakdown, K Lots

Figure 2: Discretionary hedge fund PnL and drawdown as a ratio of VaR

Podcast: Frans Pettinga on metals markets and tariff tensions

Fri, 07 Mar 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Head of Quantitative Research, Nicky Ferguson, met with Frans Pettinga on 3 March for the second EA Forum podcast of 2025.

They discuss:

The nuances of how the metals market has reacted to tariff risks.
Frans’s belief that some of the disruptions in the metals market are unlikely to persist in the long term.
The concept of physical optionality in the metals sector and if the competitive advantage of physical players may be diminishing.
How the forward curve in gold should encourage gold producers to consider hedging and adopting a counter-cyclical perspective.
Frans’s insights on managing a trading firm, emphasising the importance of diversifying both assets and traders.

Podcast recorded on 7 March 2025.

EA Forum

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Now for the hard part

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Crude: Prices supported by broad commodity buying, but flows starting to dissipate; liquidity remains thin until clarity on tariffs and OPEC.
Products: Front-loaded maintenance supporting European gasoil spreads; EBOB spread strength at risk on faster-than-expected Dangote ramp-up.
Refining: Strength in global average margins masks the pressure on Asia and secondary unit throughputs from strong sour crude and feedstocks.
Geopolitics: Maximum pressure campaign against Iran likely to start within weeks; restart of Kurdish oil exports nears but balance impact minimal.
Macro: US economic outlook clouded by tariff and fiscal uncertainty; sustained optimism around China’s economy could spill over into commodity markets.
Natural gas: TTF bal-2025 approaches fair value; Europe maintains strong pull on flexible LNG; weather continues to drive HH volatility.
Transition: US and EU tariffs boost China EV and clean tech exports to emerging markets.

Crude

Oil prices saw an uptick this week, supported by significant buying in broad-based commodity indices as investors continue to hedge against inflation. This buying activity has triggered CTA buying levels, adding further support. But these flows have started to dissipate, and when coupled with ongoing seasonal fundamental softness, this could result in a pullback in flat prices ahead of fundamentals tightening over the summer.We expect liquidity to remain thin as the oil market awaits clarity on key events over the next two weeks, including decisions on Canadian and Mexican tariffs and whether OPEC+ producers decide to extend voluntary cuts beyond April (which we believe they likely will), before traders put on large positions.

Volatility in futures markets, driven by US President Donald Trump's policies and announcements, is making relative-value trades such as sweet–sour spreads much more appealing to market participants. This week, attention focused on US–Russian talks, where senior officials agreed on preliminary steps towards peace in Ukraine. Secretary of State Marco Rubio described it as a "long and difficult road". The steps include reestablishing diplomatic ties, forming teams to discuss ending the war, and considering post-war economic and geopolitical cooperation between the US and Russia. When asked about sanctions removal, Rubio stated that ending the conflict requires concessions from all parties but did not specify what those might be. Sanctions relief will likely be part of a future peace deal, but we do not expect any easing during the process.

Separately, WTI prompt spreads strengthened this week, while April–May spreads also firmed. Brent spreads eased on the prompt but have remained stable for the summer. Volatility in prompt spreads has shifted length down the curve as traders position for strengthening summer fundamentals, particularly due to risks around OPEC+ delaying the unwinding of production cuts and US sanctions policy. Our meetings in Riyadh and Abu Dhabithis week have cemented our view that OPEC+ will not change its policy without clarity on sanctions and tariffs. We therefore think OPEC+ may postpone the planned unwind of voluntary cuts from April, potentially by a few months. So far, the US has not pressured OPEC+ to increase production pre-emptively ahead of potential sanctions-led supply disruptions, despite market speculation.

Finally, physical markets were quiet this week, with market participants still assessing the impact of the disruption to CPC pipeline flows, which remains murky. Russia may seek to use the disruption as political leverage, muddying the scale of potential supply disruptions for the time being. Our conversations with CPC shippers and buyers indicate that flows on the line may have fallen by anywhere between 50–400 kb/d, while repairs could take six to eight weeks. Some of our contacts believe that Russian CPC exports (which utilise the same infrastructure as Kazakhstan’s CPC) and potentially some Tengiz deliveries have been disrupted. Flows from the Kashagan field remain unaffected.

Products

Prompt ICE gasoil spreads strengthened this week as CDU maintenance in Europe is expected to average 0.34 mb/d higher y/y in February. Unplanned Russian refinery outages have risen by 0.41 mb/d m/m in February due to Ukrainian drone strikes, reducing diesel exports by 67 kb/d m/m (50 kb/d below the five-year February average). We expect spreads will stay strong at the prompt even if heating demand comes off seasonally, as a front-loaded refinery maintenance season globally will keep supply pressured. But we expect little upside to cracks beyond the $17–20/bbl range they have been trading in, barring prolonged supply disruptions.

RBOB has sold off along the curve this week, but with planned maintenance in the New York Harbor starting in March and European planned turnarounds ramping up, fundamentals should temper further pressure, particularly once we are through this month’s expiry. PADD 1 stocks are high, and the March contract is exposed to winter grade destocking. We still see fundamental support from outages and closures, but the risk of a Mar-25–Apr-25 selloff is increasing given adequate stocks and softer y/y freight as participants destock ahead of the winter–summer transition. We also note that any quick progress on Dangote remains a clear risk for bullish EBOB trades (despite our expectation for a stop-start ramp-up) and for Atlantic basin octane as the initial supply permeates the region.

Refining

The Trump administration is preparing a first wave of "maximum pressure" sanctions targeting Iranian oil flows, focusing on private smuggling networks in Iraq. Initial sanctions will likely not affect Iraqi state entities but will target private networks interacting with them. Our US government sources estimate volumes smuggled through Iraq are relatively small (under 0.1 mb/d waterborne in the south, and another 30–40 kb/d trucked through Kurdish areas). Sources add that Iraq's waiver to import Iranian gas and electricity is also unlikely to be renewed next month, potentially worsening summer power shortages. We understand the main delay in imposing these measures is that key positions in the Treasury and State departments are still being filled. That said, we expect a first wave of sanctions designations within weeks, not months.

Geopolitics

Both Iraq’s federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) say that oil exports via the Iraq–Turkey Pipeline (ITP) should resume soon, although statements differ on whether this will happen this month or in early March. The potential for a restart has been rising since Iraq’s parliament approved a budget amendment in early February. The tone of recent statements suggests there are no significant outstanding issues, although we would not rule out last minute obstacles emerging given the complexity of this situation. The reopening of the ITP could restore around 0.45 mb/d of Iraqi crude flows to the Mediterranean, but underlying production would only rise by 0.10–0.15 mb/d, as Kurdish output has already partially rebounded on higher local consumption.

Macro

Market sentiment around the globe's two biggest economies has begun to diverge. The initial wave of euphoria around a pro-business administration in Washington has cooled as tariffs and fiscal uncertainty begin to weigh on activity. The direct impact of the Department of Government Efficiency’s cuts so far appear contained to the Washington DC area, but business surveys suggest that the overall corporate investment outlook is weakening. January's downside surprise in US retail sales could be chalked up to winter weather and holiday seasonality, but Walmart downgraded its 2025 consumer outlook this week in the face of macro uncertainty.

Sentiment around China, by contrast, continues to improve. The Chinese equity market index traded in Hong Kong (the HSCEI, which is favoured by offshore investors) has outperformed the domestic equity market by nearly 15% YTD. While much of the offshore bullishness is centred on China's tech sector, and the linkage between the Chinese stock market and the real economy is loose at best, sustained optimism could spill over into commodity markets. This is especially true for industrial metals, with copper prices moving up in lockstep with the HSCEI this year.

Natural gas

We have reduced our TTF bal-2025 forecast significantly w/w, and now see the curve near fair value after the market selloff over the past week. Our TTF bal-2025 forecast of €50/MWh is just marginally above the latest market price. We loosened our balances w/w, largely on the back of milder forecasts for the next two weeks and increased LNG supply over the coming months. Additionally, pressure from European governments to reduce storage filling mandates continues to gain traction as the Netherlands and France missed their headline 1 February targets. While there has been no official relaxation of storage targets, we expect Europe will be able to reduce its efforts to constrain gas demand and attract LNG over the injection cycle.

We have maintained that there will likely be a Russia–Ukraine peace deal later this year, but we remain sceptical this will translate into the return of Russian pipeline gas to the European market. Political opposition across the EU to the return of Russian pipeline gas remains high due to Russia’s weaponisation of these flows throughout the war. Russian LNG exports have a greater chance of rising following a peace deal as the US controls those sanctions, but we only see this happening as a hard-won concession. A quick ramp-up of Russian gas exports from mid-year, albeit far below historical levels, would significantly reduce European gas prices.

JKM–TTF summer 2025 spreads continue to move up towards our forecast following the recent selloff in TTF. The latest CME settlements of JKM–TTF summer 2025 spreads averaged only marginally below Yamal shipping differentials via the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which we have identified as the support level for spreads this summer. Asymmetric upside risks on the TTF will likely continue to deter JKM–TTF spreads from rising significantly, as we expect Europe’s increasing dependence on flexible LNG supply to continue reducing availability for price-sensitive Asian demand through the summer. We expect this to result in LNG demand increasing by 1.2 Mt y/y in Asia and 8.4 Mt y/y in Europe.

Europe gas

Global LNG

North America gas

Henry Hub breached $4.00/MMBtu down the curve this week as weather forecasts continue to drive volatility in US gas markets. Colder forecasts continue to tighten balances, causing our storage carryout to slip to 1.55 tcf. We have raised our summer 2025 forecast by $0.35/MMBtu to $3.97/MMBtu on the need for a higher summer build to reach an end-October 2025 storage level that will provide enough cover for a normal winter 2025–26. We expect elevated prices to loosen balances over the summer by reducing price-sensitive power burns by 0.9 bcf/d and incentivise new dry-gas drilling to lift production in H2 25. Incremental production and sufficient storage fill will be crucial in supporting the elevated feedgas demand that we expect in H2 25 and 2026.

Transition

In September 2024, the Biden administration quadrupled US tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (to 100%) and lithium-ion batteries (to 25%) and doubled tariffs on solar cells and polysilicon (to 50%). Trump’s 10% across-the-board tariff on China brings average tariffs on most Chinese industrial goods to 35%, a figure that may rise to as high as 60% in the coming years. The EU has imposed similar tariffs on Chinese EVs, which now reach as high as 45.3% for some models. Chinese firms are rapidly pushing exports of EVs, batteries, and solar and wind equipment to the Global south due to the rising trade barriers among advanced economies, particularly within clean tech industries. This will likely be accompanied by investment in manufacturing facilities in countries such as Thailand, Brazil and Turkey, accelerating EV adoption rates in emerging markets by 2030.

Webinar on-demand: North American Gas and Power Webinar

Mon, 24 Feb 2025 09:22:15 GMT

In this session, our North American power and gas analysts Michael Lawn (Head of North America Power) and David Seduski (Head of North America Gas) reviewed the winter to date and looked ahead to what summer has in store:

During this webinar, our expert analysts discussed:

Renewable and other capacity build, load growth and changes in fuel mix in the power sector.
Changes in the US gas balances for the year and what they mean for prices going into the summer and end-of-season carryout.
Our views on US gas and power prices at key hubs for the coming summer.

Webinar recorded on 13 February 2025

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Podcast: Jeff Currie on dunkelflaute and other market mysteries

Thu, 06 Feb 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects.

The key points of discussion were:

Jeff is still bullish oil, but he doesn't believe flat price will necessarily reflect the bullishness because there is no leverage in the system and trading has not made money in the last few years.
He believes the big rally in flat price in the mid-2000s was ultimately down to leverage.
Jeff practises his German (can you say dunkelflaute?) while pointing out that policymakers are slowly realising the perils of having a renewable-only power grid.
Jeff delves into US production and how he isn't seeing private equity money flow into the shale patch again.

Podcast recorded on 6 February 2025.

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The Global SD Balance M0 dataset - OilX

Wed, 05 Feb 2025 09:22:15 GMT

In today's volatile oil markets, having access to timely, expert analysis can make the difference between capitalising on an opportunity or missing it entirely.

What you'll learn:

Real-time alerts on key market developments that influence oil pricing.
Expert analysis of potential market impacts, helping you make informed trading decisions.
Seamless integration with your existing systems via multiple data formats.
A competitive edge through early awareness of market-moving events.
Time savings by receiving only the most relevant, actionable intelligence.

Download report

Please fill in your contact details to access the full insight.

Energy Aspects selected as OPEC secondary source

Tue, 04 Feb 2025 09:22:15 GMT

Energy Aspects (EA) is delighted to announce that OPEC, during a videoconference for the 58th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC), has selected Energy Aspects as a secondary source.

This prestigious recognition underscores the value of EA's analytics capabilities in providing critical insights into the oil market.

It also highlights the strength of EA Analytics' capabilities , which leverage cutting-edge technology and deep market expertise to deliver unparalleled insights into oil market dynamics. The Energy Aspects intelligence platform combines conventional oil statistics with real-time data from satellites and maritime intelligence to deliver the most precise measurement of the global oil market.

Being entrusted by key decision-makers like the JMMC underscores EA's commitment to supporting transparency, accuracy, and stability in global oil markets.

Dr Florian Thaler, Head of Analytics, expressed his gratitude and emphasised the importance of this recognition:

"We are honoured to be recognised by OPEC as a secondary source for the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee. This acknowledgment is a testament to the hard work and dedication of our team at Energy Aspects, who strive to provide the most accurate and timely insights into the oil market.

By integrating advanced technology with our deep market expertise, we are committed to supporting transparency in the global oil markets. We look forward to continuing our collaboration with key industry stakeholders to enable data driven decision-making."

Jeff Currie – Is 2025 the year gas takes over?

Wed, 11 Dec 2024 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects.

In this podcast, Jeff and Amrita discuss key ideas in the market heading into 2025, including:

How 2025 could see gas begin to take over, pulling in inflation trades and relegating oil to coal’s level.
Mispricing across many markets, particularly the small-cap equity space, could be attributed to structural investor shifts.
How the nascent delisting phenomenon will affect capital allocation as more money goes private and avoids shareholder pressure.
Macro variables more important than policy, as Trump controls political levers but not “physics or the bond market”.
Brown and green asset values in 2025 and why flexibility of a hybrid vehicle is “energy security at its finest”.

Podcast recorded on 11 December 2024.

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Energy Aspects acquires MMSA, methanol market experts

Sun, 01 Dec 2024 09:22:15 GMT

MMSA insight broadens and enhances Energy Aspects’ capabilities across key commodity markets.

London, December 2024—Leading energy analytics and data company, Energy Aspects, has acquired pre-eminent methanol market analysis firm, MMSA. This acquisition broadens Energy Aspects’ offering to clients with an even wider range of insights across critical commodities. In turn, MMSA’s clients will benefit from exposure to Energy Aspects’ proprietary datasets and expert analysis, enhancing their use of comprehensive, data-driven market intelligence.

Commenting on the acquisition, Dr Amrita Sen, Founder and Director of Market Intelligence at Energy Aspects, said: “We are delighted to welcome MMSA to the Energy Aspects family. Their extensive expertise in methanol markets adds significant value to our portfolio of data and intelligence coverage. This investment further strengthens our commitment to delivering high-quality analysis to our clients.”

Mark Berggren, Managing Director of MMSA, said: “We have long admired Energy Aspects’ exceptional research and data-driven insights across the energy markets. Joining forces with them is an exciting step for us. By combining our methanol market expertise with their broader commodities coverage, we believe we can offer even greater value to the global methanol community and contribute meaningfully to the evolving energy landscape.”

In addition to its role as an essential intermediate in the petrochemical value chain, methanol is poised to play a pivotal role in the energy transition, potentially serving as a versatile and sustainable energy carrier. MMSA’s expertise, particularly some recent and exciting work in low-carbon methanol, aligns with Energy Aspects’ forward-looking approach to the changing energy outlook and its expansion in the sustainable energy space.

This acquisition follows Energy Aspects’ purchase of Its Not a Science (INAS), a leading quantitative analytics business, in April 2023; OilX, a pioneer in AI-driven energy data analytics, in February 2023; and Medley Global Advisors in 2020. This latest acquisition underscores Energy Aspects’ ambition to be the premier platform for data and intelligence, empowering market participants with unmatched insights to navigate complex and evolving global commodity markets.

Please email contact@energyaspects.com for further information.

Jeff Currie podcast covering election risks, passive investors, and avoiding data pollution

Tue, 05 Nov 2024 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects.

In this podcast, recorded prior to the US elections, Jeff Currie and EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Amrita Sen discuss a wide range of topics, including:

Shifting financial market dynamics and how the oil market could become a space dominated by privates and trade houses.
The trend of bigger companies growing faster than small companies, and how it is affected by access to capital thanks to passive investments.
The crucial importance of “clean” data for ensuring data integrity, and how “pollution” can leave the technology chain "useless”.

Podcast recorded on 5 November 2024.

EA Forum

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Jeff Currie on oil bears, rate cuts, and gas demand from AI data centres

Wed, 09 Oct 2024 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects.

In this podcast, Jeff Currie tells Amrita Sen, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence, that the oil market is too bearish and not paying attention to low stocks or the US Fed and Chinese rate cuts. They also discuss how:

Emerging markets, particularly China and Latin America, are expected to benefit from US rate cuts , potentially increasing oil demand.
Investment in energy infrastructure is lacking, with a need for capital to return to the sector to support future demand and transition efforts.
The growth of AI data centres and how that is set to transform gas demand globally.

Podcast recorded on 9 October 2024.

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EA Forum podcast: Enterprise Products sees US oil production growing into early 2030s

Wed, 25 Sep 2024 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Head of Upstream Jesse Jones talks to Anthony C. Chovanec, Executive Vice President, Fundamentals and Commodity Risk Assessment at Enterprise Products.

They discuss:

Enterprise believes US oil production will continue to grow into the early 2030s, contrary to market expectations.
US producers are always getting more efficient and how creative thinking means that production is holding up even in secondary basins.
Major midstream companies are making multi-billion dollar bets on long-term Permian production.
The focus of investment is now on handling the gas and NGLs that are growing much faster than crude.
Enterprise is marketing its deepwater SPOT project and thinks it will deliver meaningfully lower costs for US crude exports .

Podcast recorded on 25 September 2024.

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EA Forum podcast with PIMCO's Greg Sharenow: Alpha returns

Fri, 26 Jul 2024 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Greg Sharenow, a managing director and portfolio management group leader at PIMCO.

They discuss:

Greg argues there is potential for further volatility down the oil curve as a result of increasing political and economic uncertainty, while carbon is also incorrectly priced given potential for a Trump election win.
They note the inflation spike driving demand for real asset–based investment, but highlight that the most notable changes have come from new international investors that had historically shied away from energy and commodities due to their high volatility.
Despite low realised crude vol the past 18 months, which has put off some traders, Greg believes there are ample opportunities across commodity markets to generate alpha returns.

Podcast recorded on 26 July 2024.

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EA Forum podcast with Jeff Currie: China, elections and the Fed

Wed, 10 Jul 2024 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects.

Emerging markets, particularly China and Latin America, are expected to benefit from US rate cuts, potentially increasing oil demand.
Investment in energy infrastructure is lacking, with a need for capital to return to the sector to support future demand and transition efforts.
The growth of AI data centres and how that is set to transform gas demand globally.

Podcast recorded on 9 October 2024.

EA Forum

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EA Forum launch podcast with Jeff Currie

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 09:22:15 GMT

Previously released for Energy Aspects subscribers, EA Founder and Director of Market Intelligence Dr Amrita Sen caught up with Jeff Currie, Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle and Non-executive Director at Energy Aspects.

In this podcast, recorded prior to the 2 June OPEC+ meeting, Amrita and Jeff discuss:

The energy transition and the pathway between the brown and the green.
Whether Jeff is bullish or bearish on the oil market.
The industrial metals market and where it is heading.
Global sanctions, the US election and other market drivers.

Podcast recorded on 4 June 2024.

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Energy Aspects acquires Its Not A Science (INAS), for its advanced quantitative capabilities

Mon, 24 Apr 2023 09:22:15 GMT

INAS applies scientific principles and quantitative rigour to understand the relevant price drivers for paper markets and hedging in the commodities space.

London, 24 April, 2023. Leading energy and macro research consultancy Energy Aspects has acquired Its Not A Science (INAS), an independent research firm specialising in quantitative strategies for energy markets. The acquisition will bolster Energy Aspects’ insights by adding quantitative capability and financial flow analysis to the EA Group offering, helping clients to break down market positioning.

Analysing financial flows has become hugely important for markets in recent years given the influx of discretionary capital and it is an area where little analysis or research exists. Physical fundamentals alone no longer explain price moves, be it in oil, gas or carbon markets.

Founded in 2022 by Dr. Nicky Ferguson, INAS delivers quantitative strategy research for commodity markets with a specific focus on modelling paper flows. This helps both systematic and discretionary traders gain a better understanding of positioning through the creation of paper balances. INAS’s methodology is data-driven and is augmented with topical deep-dive research papers to help clients understand relevant price and flow drivers in commodity futures markets.

Prior to founding INAS, Nicky developed deep expertise working as a quantitative strategist and proprietary trader in the energy derivatives space, managing both systematic and discretionary risk. He holds an MPhil and PhD in Finance from the University of Cambridge with a research focus on time series analysis and information processing.

“I am really excited about the future for our company with Nicky onboard, as our combined knowledge and insights is very powerful indeed”, said Dr. Amrita Sen, co-founder and Director of Research at Energy Aspects. “With this acquisition we are growing ever closer to becoming a one-stop intelligence knowledge centre across financial markets.”

Energy Aspects’ purchase of INAS is part of the company’s ambitious growth plan and follows the recent acquisition of OilX, a pioneer in AI driven data analytics that provides sophisticated ‘nowcasting’ capabilities, enabling its clients to understand energy markets as they evolve. Energy Aspects also acquired Medley Global Advisors in 2020, a macro policy research service for hedge funds, asset managers, banks, and institutional investors, and had a strategic investment from Summit Partners in 2022.

Energy Aspects was founded in 2012 by energy industry experts Dr. Amrita Sen, Fredrik Fosse, and Richard Bronze to meet the need for timely, independent research that provides deep dives in energy market and macro fundamentals, grounded on robust data and timely forecasts, all while maintaining a commitment to timeliness and precision. Over 500 organisations rely on Energy Aspects’ broad product range covering short-term, long-term, and macro trends, and direct access to analysts for specific queries. It is headquartered in London with additional offices in New York, Houston, Singapore, Tokyo and India.

Contacts for further information:

press@energyaspects.com

HRH Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman in conversation with Amrita Sen

Tue, 14 Feb 2023 09:22:15 GMT

We are delighted to present Founder & Director of Research Amrita Sen's exclusive interview with Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, Saudi Arabia's energy minister. The discussion, held in Riyadh on 14 February, covers OPEC+ policy, particularly the group’s focus on keeping output unchanged throughout the year. Prince Abdulaziz cautions about global oil demand and details the worries about underinvestment in the oil sector, especially as buffers are running thin. He also ends with a Valentine's Day message for all traders, not to be missed.

Energy Aspects acquires OilX, a pioneer in AI driven data analytics for energy markets

Wed, 01 Feb 2023 09:22:15 GMT

OilX’s advanced AI, proprietary data and nowcasting will further strengthen Energy Aspects’ industry-leading models and insights.

London, 1 February, 2023. Leading energy and macro research consultancy Energy Aspects has acquired OilX, a pioneer in AI-driven energy data analytics. The acquisition will enhance Energy Aspects’ insights as OilX’s real-time data technology complements Energy Aspects’ forward-looking analysis. OilX, in turn, will benefit from Energy Aspects’ proprietary data sets and world-class subject matter experts, improving its data-driven insights to clients.

Founded in 2018 by Dr. Florian Thaler, OilX’s unique real-time energy market platform offers sophisticated ‘nowcasting’ capabilities, enabling its clients to understand energy markets as they evolve. OilX’s advanced technology utilises AI, satellite and tanker tracking data to create highly valuable proprietary data sets, and its UX design delivers high data usability.

OilX’s product range covers crude oil, refined products, biofuels and NGL’s. Their platform, the world’s first real-time oil supply and demand balance, provides users with market analysis ahead of official data releases and relative to consensus estimates. Additionally, the company’s WhatsApp bot enables users to receive an instant response to queries about the entire global oil supply/demand balance.

“We are thrilled to welcome OilX to our team and are optimistic about the many opportunities that this acquisition presents”, said Dr. Amrita Sen, co-founder and Director of Research at Energy Aspects. “With OilX becoming part of Energy Aspects, we will be able to deliver to our clients not only leading energy markets forecasting and insights but also the most accurate view of market movements as they happen.”

“I have always admired Energy Aspects as the undisputed industry leader in energy analysis” said Dr. Florian Thaler, CEO of OilX. “We are excited about the opportunity to become part of the Energy Aspects growth story and to combine state-of-the art AI technology with top class analysts to produce the highest quality information for our clients.”

Energy Aspects’ purchase of OilX is part of the company’s ambitious growth plan and follows its 2020 acquisition of Medley Global Advisors, a macro policy research service for hedge funds, asset managers, banks, and institutional investors, and a strategic investment from Summit Partners in 2022. Energy Aspects has a roadmap to integrate the platforms in the short-medium term, allowing for a smooth customer user experience in accessing both offerings.

Energy Aspects was founded in 2012 by energy industry experts Dr. Amrita Sen, Fredrik Fosse and Richard Bronze to meet the need for timely, independent research that provides deep dives in energy market and macro fundamentals, grounded on robust data and timely forecasts, all while maintaining a commitment to timeliness and precision. Over 500 organisations rely on Energy Aspects’ broad product range covering short-term, long-term, and macro trends, and direct access to analysts for specific queries. It is headquartered in London with additional offices in New York, Houston, Singapore, Tokyo and India.

Contacts for further information:

press@energyaspects.com

Medley Global Advisors acquisition

Wed, 28 Dec 2022 11:44:37 GMT

Energy Aspects acquires Medley Global Advisors from the Financial Times Group

1 December 2020: Energy Aspects, the international energy research consultancy, today announces the purchase of Medley Global Advisors from the Financial Times Group. Medley Global Advisors is the leading macro policy research service, creating value and insight for the world’s top hedge funds, institutional investors, and asset managers. The business is at the forefront of helping a global clientele understand the nuances of central banking, fiscal and energy policymaking.

Fredrik Fosse, CEO of Energy Aspects, says “We are excited for the Medley team and its clients to join Energy Aspects. Medley and EA are a great fit as two leading research houses in adjacent but increasingly interlinked areas of coverage. Our deep expertise on energy markets will add to Medley’s macro and policy offering and our plans to invest in Medley will further strengthen coverage and service for its clients.”

Brendan Fitzsimmons, Medley’s senior managing partner and global head of macro strategy and client engagement, says “Energy Aspects is a natural home for Medley and this transaction brings together two teams with an equal passion for excellence in research and advisory services. EA’s plans for investing in macro coverage to build on its strong expertise in energy is an exciting prospect for the Medley team and its clients.”

About EA - Energy Aspects is an independent research consultancy founded in 2012. The company provides expert-led analysis of energy market fundamentals and price movement forecasts, and is well known for its in-depth, forward-looking research based on both high-level industry contacts and its extensive data models. The company has offices in London, New York, Houston and Singapore.

About Medley Global Advisors - Medley Global Advisors is the leading macro policy advisory for the world's top hedge funds, institutional investors and asset managers. Its global network of analysts and strategists spans G10, global emerging markets, and macro energy coverages, helping its client base navigate a constantly shifting global landscape of monetary, fiscal, regulatory, energy, political and geopolitical affairs. The company has offices in New York, London, and Tokyo.

For more information, please visit www. energyaspects .com or write to us at contact@energyaspects.com .

Discussion with Haitham Al-Ghais, OPEC's Secretary General-elect

Wed, 28 Dec 2022 09:22:15 GMT

Energy Aspects discusses oil markets and the energy transition with His Excellency Haitham Al-Ghais, OPEC's Secretary General-elect.

We are excited to present His Excellency Haitham Al-Ghais' first detailed interview since his election as OPEC's next Secretary General in January 2022.

His Excellency is a veteran of the Kuwait Petroleum Corporation and brings over three decades of global oil and gas industry experience. He has held several positions in key OPEC and OPEC+ bodies and committees, including as Kuwait’s OPEC governor from 2017 to 2021 and the inaugural chairman of the OPEC+ Joint Technical Committee in 2017.

As he gets ready to take office in August 2022, Director of Research Amrita Sen and Head of Geopolitics Richard Bronze ask His Excellency Al-Ghais about his new responsibilities and his objectives, including the future of OPEC+ beyond the end of this year.

They dive deeper into the challenges that OPEC and OPEC+ will have to navigate, including the impact of the energy transition on markets, relations with oil consumers and maintaining consensus among producers.